EIA Electric Power Monthly - March 2021 (to January 2021)
Solar lags wind by a lot, but continues to grow.
423.5MW of new utility scale solar was added, taking the total to 48,271.7MW. Planned 12-month solar capacity additions decreased by 27.2MW to 16,136.8MW.
Utilty-scale solar generation for January 2021 was 5.7TWh, up from 4.6TWh in 2020.
Including estimated small-scale generation, in January solar was was 8,481TWh, 2.40% of US generation compared to 2.00% a year ago. That brought the rolling share to 3.30%, up from 2.62% a year ago.
Estimated total solar generation was above 10TWh each month from April to October. With the large increase in capacity in 2020, and the large increase forecast for 2021, we can expect the range to be March to November at least, with an outside possibility for February 2021, December 2021 a possibility, and then February surely added from 2022.
Utility scale generation was above 10TWh only in July 2020. In 2021 we can expect utility scale solar generation to exceed 10TWh between April and August at least, with September also possible.
12 month rolling estimated solar plus wind generation was 11.66% of generation.
Solar
Utility Solar:
Capacity (MW):
Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|
Month | 47,848.2 | 423.5 | 48,271.7 | 0.89% |
YTD | 47,848.2 | 423.5 | 48,271.7 | 0.89% |
Rolling | 38,841.0 | 9,430.7 | 48,271.7 | 24.28% |
Plan +12mo | 16,587.5 | -27.2 | 16,136.8 | 33.43% |
Generation (GWh):
Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
---|
2020 | 4,555 | 4,657 | 73,014 | 1.33% | 1.36% | 1.76% |
2021 | 5,732 | 5,732 | 91,966 | 1.62% | 1.62% | 2.26% |
Difference | 1,177 | 1,075 | 18,952 | 0.29% | 0.26% | 0.50% |
Small Scale Solar:
Capacity (MW):
Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|
Month | 27,723.6 | 501.4 | 28,225.0 | 1.81% |
YTD | 27,723.6 | 501.4 | 28,225.0 | 1.81% |
Rolling | 23,748.2 | 4,476.8 | 28,225.0 | 18.85% |
Generation (GWh):
Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
---|
2020 | 2,293 | 2,313 | 35,367 | 0.67% | 0.67% | 0.85% |
2021 | 2,749 | 2,749 | 42,176 | 0.78% | 0.78% | 1.04% |
Difference | 456 | 436 | 6,809 | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.19% |
Total Solar:
Capacity (MW):
Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|
Month | 75,571.8 | 924.9 | 76,496.7 | 1.22% |
YTD | 75,571.8 | 924.9 | 76,496.7 | 1.22% |
Rolling | 62,589.2 | 13,907.5 | 76,496.7 | 22.22% |
Generation (GWh):
Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
---|
2020 | 6,848 | 6,970 | 108,381 | 2.00% | 2.03% | 2.62% |
2021 | 8,481 | 8,481 | 134,142 | 2.40% | 2.40% | 3.30% |
Difference | 1,633 | 1,511 | 25,761 | 0.39% | 0.37% | 0.69% |