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Solar Roof, big price increase

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Solar module prices have risen 18% since the start of the year after falling by 90% over the previous decade.

 
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After Tesla destroyed my rain gutters last January this is a sample of what happens when it rains. Who knew water has a tough time flowing uphill. After the ground gets soaked water will begin to encroach into my basement and in some places be getting inside the walls.
 

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So out of curiosity I read Tesla's Form 10-Q, for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2020, and their Form 10-K, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020, and found the following interesting highlights:

Edit: Added Form 10-Q, For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2021, to the end of post.

Tesla SEC filings:

FORM 10-Q
For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2020,


"In 2020, we have deployed 1.44 GWh of energy storage products and 119 MW of solar energy systems through the third quarter. We are currently focused on ramping production of energy storage products, improving our Solar Roof installation capabilities, and increasing market share of retrofit solar energy systems."

"In addition, we are working to improve our installation capabilities for Solar Roof by on-boarding and training a large number of installers and reducing the installation time dramatically."

This statement is repeated many times:

“higher costs from temporary manufacturing underutilization of our Solar Roof ramp.”

“We may also experience similar future delays in launching and/or ramping production of our energy storage products and the Solar Roof”

“Likewise, as we ramp Solar Roof, we are working to substantially increase installation personnel and decrease installation times. If we are not successful in matching such capabilities with actual production, or if we experience unforeseen production delays or inaccurately forecast demand for the Solar Roof, our business, financial condition and operating results may be harmed.”

So in December they knew they were experiencing production cost issues. Then three months later as we all know commodity process rose.

Then there’s this:

“If our warranty reserves are inadequate to cover future warranty claims on our products, our financial condition and operating results may be harmed. Warranty reserves include our management’s best estimates of the projected costs to repair or to replace items under warranty, which are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency, and costs of future claims. Such estimates are inherently uncertain and changes to our historical or projected experience, especially with respect to products such as Model 3, Model Y, and Solar Roof that we have recently introduced and/or that we expect to produce at significantly greater volumes than our past products, may cause material changes to our warranty reserves in the future.”

FORM 10-K
For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020


“In 2019, we commenced direct customer and channel partner sales of the third generation of our Solar Roof, which combines premium glass roof tiles with energy generation. We are ramping the volume production of Solar Roof at Gigafactory New York, and we are improving our installation capability and efficiency.”

“We have engineered Solar Roof over numerous iterations to combine aesthetic appeal and durability with power generation. The efficiency of our solar energy products is aided by our own solar inverter, which also incorporates our power electronics technologies. We designed both products to integrate with Powerwall.”

“Our expertise in electrical, mechanical, civil and software engineering allows us to design and manufacture our energy generation and storage products and components. We also employ our design and engineering expertise to customize solutions including our energy storage products, solar energy systems and/or Solar Roof for customers to meet their specific needs. We have developed software that simplifies and expedites the design process and maximizes the energy production of each solar energy system, as well as mounting hardware that facilitates solar panel installation.”

“For retrofit solar energy systems, we provide separate limited warranties for workmanship and against roof leaks, and for Solar Roof, we provide limited warranties for defects and weatherization.”

We may experience delays in launching and ramping the production of our products and features, or we may be unable to control our manufacturing costs.” … “ We may also experience similar future delays in launching and/or ramping production of our energy storage products and Solar Roof”

”Likewise, as we ramp Solar Roof, we are working to substantially increase installation personnel and decrease installation times. If we are not successful in matching such capabilities with actual production, or if we experience unforeseen production delays or inaccurately forecast demand for the Solar Roof, our business, financial condition and operating results may be harmed.”

If we are unable to attract, hire and retain key employees and qualified personnel, our ability to compete may be harmed.”

If our warranty reserves are inadequate to cover future warranty claims on our products, our financial condition and operating results may be harmed. Warranty reserves include our management’s best estimates of the projected costs to repair or to replace items under warranty, which are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims. Such estimates are inherently uncertain and changes to our historical or projected experience, especially with respect to products such as Model 3, Model Y and Solar Roof that we have recently introduced and/or that we expect to produce at significantly greater volumes than our past products, may cause material changes to our warranty reserves in the future.”

“In 2020, we deployed 3.02 GWh of energy storage products and 205 megawatts of solar energy systems. We are currently focused on ramping production of energy storage products, improving our Solar Roof installation capability and efficiency and increasing market share of retrofit solar energy systems.”

“[W]e are working to improve our installation capabilities for Solar Roof by on-boarding and training a large number of installers and reducing the installation time dramatically. As these product lines grow, we will have to maintain adequate battery cell supply for our energy storage products and hire additional personnel, particularly skilled electricians to support the ramp of Solar Roof.”

And here also:

igher costs from temporary manufacturing underutilization of our Solar Roof ramp,”

“We do not currently expect any issues meeting all applicable future obligations under this agreement. However, if our expectations as to the costs and timelines of our investment and operations at Buffalo or our production ramp of the Solar Roof prove incorrect, we may incur additional expenses or substantial payments to the SUNY Foundation.”

-----------------------------------------------

Edit: for more recent data:

Form 10-Q
For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2021


“We remain committed to increasing our retrofit solar energy business by offering a low-cost and simplified online ordering experience. In addition, we continue to improve our installation capabilities for Solar Roof by on-boarding and training a large number of installers and reducing the installation time dramatically. As these product lines grow, we will have to maintain adequate battery cell supply for our energy storage products and hire additional personnel, particularly skilled electricians to support the ramp of Solar Roof. “

“Cost of energy generation and storage revenue increased by $313 million, or 111%, in the three months ended March 31, 2021 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2020, primarily due to increases in deployments of solar cash and loan jobs, Solar Roof, Powerwall and Megapack and increased service maintenance costs on solar energy systems where we are the lessor, partially offset by reductions in average costs per unit of Solar Roof and solar cash and loan jobs from improved overhead utilization as deployments increased. Although our average costs per unit of Solar Roof improved compared to the prior period, they still remain significant and contribute disproportionately to our cost of energy generation and storage revenue.”

“Gross margin for energy generation and storage decreased from 4% to -20% in the three months ended March 31, 2021 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2020 primarily due to a higher proportion of Solar Roof in our overall energy business which operated at lower gross margins as a result of temporary manufacturing underutilization during product ramp, increased service maintenance costs on solar energy systems where we are the lessor and lower gross margins in our energy storage business as we are ramping Megapack.”

“We may also experience similar future delays in launching and/or ramping production of our energy storage products and Solar Roof”

“Likewise, as we ramp Solar Roof, we are working to substantially increase installation personnel and decrease installation times. If we are not successful in matching such capabilities with actual production, or if we experience unforeseen production delays or inaccurately forecast demand for the Solar Roof, our business, financial condition and operating results may be harmed.”

We must manage ongoing obligations under our agreement with the Research Foundation for the State University of New York relating to our Gigafactory New York. We are party to an operating lease and a research and development agreement through the SUNY Foundation. These agreements provide for the construction and use of our Gigafactory New York, which we have primarily used for the development and production of our Solar Roof and other solar products and components, energy storage components and Supercharger components, and for other lessor-approved functions. Under this agreement, we are obligated to, among other things, meet employment targets as well as specified minimum numbers of personnel in the State of New York and in Buffalo, New York and spend or incur $5.00 billion in combined capital, operational expenses, costs of goods sold and other costs in the State of New York during a period that was initially 10 years beginning April 30, 2018. As we temporarily suspended most of our manufacturing operations at Gigafactory New York pursuant to a New York State executive order issued in March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, we were granted a one-year deferral of our obligation to be compliant with our applicable targets under such agreement on April 30, 2020, which was memorialized in an amendment to our agreement with the SUNY Foundation in July 2020. In April 2021, we were granted an additional deferral through December 31, 2021 subject only to memorialization in writing by us and the SUNY Foundation, as our operations at Gigafactory New York have not yet fully ramped due to a number of factors related to the pandemic. While we expect to have and grow significant operations at Gigafactory New York and the surrounding Buffalo area, any failure by us in any year over the course of the term of the agreement to meet all applicable future obligations may result in our obligation to pay a “program payment” of $41 million to the SUNY Foundation for such year, the termination of our lease at Gigafactory New York which may require us to pay additional penalties, and/or the need to adjust certain of our operations, in particular our production ramp of the Solar Roof or other components. Any of the foregoing events may harm our business, financial condition and operating results.”

“If our warranty reserves are inadequate to cover future warranty claims on our products, our financial condition and operating results may be harmed. Warranty reserves include our management’s best estimates of the projected costs to repair or to replace items under warranty, which are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims. Such estimates are inherently uncertain and changes to our historical or projected experience, especially with respect to products such as Model 3, Model Y and Solar Roof that we have introduced relatively recently and/or that we expect to produce at significantly greater volumes than our past products, may cause material changes to our warranty reserves in the future.”
 

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It looks like they are trying to scale the solar roof as much as possible but with the current stratospheric pricing along with mandatory power wall I just don't see how.

Since it looks like Tesla was not going to capitulate to the original agreement I finally canceled and signed an agreement with a full house solar/roofing contractor. I am now getting a premium tile roof + solar for half of what the current Tesla estimator on my house with 1 mandatory powerwall runs with the same size array. Everyone knows a tile roof with proper modern underlayment will easily last 40-50 years. All my panels and inverters warranted for 25 years. How long will the Tesla roof last or continue to look good I wonder?

You have to really hate the look of solar panels AND have money to burn to now agree to pay double for the Tesla roof. Will some people do it? Sure, but I wonder how many? Enough to justify the scaling of production and training? I just dont see the current pricing being sustainable and I predict either a future price drop OR Tesla discontinuing the product I just dont see another way.
 
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FORM 10-Q For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2020, This statement is repeated many times:

“higher costs from temporary manufacturing underutilization of our Solar Roof ramp.”
“We may also experience similar future delays in launching and/or ramping production of our energy storage products and the Solar Roof”
“Likewise, as we ramp Solar Roof, we are working to substantially increase installation personnel and decrease installation times. If we are not successful in matching such capabilities with actual production, or if we experience unforeseen production delays or inaccurately forecast demand for the Solar Roof, our business, financial condition and operating results may be harmed.”
So in December they knew they were experiencing production cost issues. Then three months later as we all know commodity process rose. Then there’s this:

“If our warranty reserves are inadequate to cover future warranty claims on our products, our financial condition and operating results may be harmed. Warranty reserves include our management’s best estimates of the projected costs to repair or to replace items under warranty, which are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency, and costs of future claims. Such estimates are inherently uncertain and changes to our historical or projected experience, especially with respect to products such as Model 3, Model Y, and Solar Roof that we have recently introduced and/or that we expect to produce at significantly greater volumes than our past products, may cause material changes to our warranty reserves in the future.”
FORM 10-K For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020
We may experience delays in launching and ramping the production of our products and features, or we may be unable to control our manufacturing costs.” …
We may also experience similar future delays in launching and/or ramping production of our energy storage products and Solar Roof”
”Likewise, as we ramp Solar Roof, we are working to substantially increase installation personnel and decrease installation times. If we are not successful in matching such capabilities with actual production, or if we experience unforeseen production delays or inaccurately forecast demand for the Solar Roof, our business, financial condition and operating results may be harmed.”
If we are unable to attract, hire and retain key employees and qualified personnel, our ability to compete may be harmed.”
If our warranty reserves are inadequate to cover future warranty claims on our products, our financial condition and operating results may be harmed. Warranty reserves include our management’s best estimates of the projected costs to repair or to replace items under warranty, which are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims.

And here also: igher costs from temporary manufacturing underutilization of our Solar Roof ramp,”

“We do not currently expect any issues meeting all applicable future obligations under this agreement. However, if our expectations as to the costs and timelines of our investment and operations at Buffalo or our production ramp of the Solar Roof prove incorrect, we may incur additional expenses or substantial payments to the SUNY Foundation.”



Edit: for more recent data: Form 10-Q For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2021

“Gross margin for energy generation and storage decreased from 4% to -20% in the three months ended March 31, 202
1 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2020 primarily due to a higher proportion of Solar Roof in our overall energy business which operated at lower gross margins as a result of temporary manufacturing underutilization during product ramp, increased service maintenance costs on solar energy systems where we are the lessor and lower gross margins in our energy storage business as we are ramping Megapack.” “We may also experience similar future delays in launching and/or ramping production of our energy storage products and Solar Roof” “Likewise, as we ramp Solar Roof, we are working to substantially increase installation personnel and decrease installation times. If we are not successful in matching such capabilities with actual production, or if we experience unforeseen pr

Production delays or inaccurately forecast demand for the Solar Roof, our business, financial condition and operating results may be harmed.”

We must manage ongoing obligations under our agreement with the Research Foundation for the State University of New York relating to our Gigafactory New York
. We are party to an operating lease and a research and development agreement through the SUNY Foundation. These agreements provide for the construction and use of our Gigafactory New York, which we have primarily used for the development and production of our Solar Roof and other solar products and components, energy storage components and Supercharger components, and for other lessor-approved functions. Under this agreement, we are obligated to, among other things, meet employment targets as well as specified minimum numbers of personnel in the State of New York and in Buffalo, New York and spend or incur $5.00 billion in combined capital, operational expenses, costs of goods sold and other costs in the State of New York during a period that was initially 10 years beginning April 30, 2018.
“If our warranty reserves are inadequate to cover future warranty claims on our products, our financial condition and operating results may be harmed. Warranty reserves include our management’s best estimates of the projected costs to repair or to replace items under warranty, which are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims. Such estimates are inherently uncertain and changes to our historical or projected experience, especially with respect to products such as Model 3, Model Y and Solar Roof that we have introduced relatively recently and/or that we expect to produce at significantly greater volumes than our past products, may cause material changes to our warranty reserves in the future.”

Great information... thanks for sharing. I have highlighted the key paragraphs for the TLDR crowd. ;)
 
I just dont see the current pricing being sustainable and I predict either a future price drop OR Tesla discontinuing the product I just dont see another way.
I think another more likely scenario is solar roof remains a niche product like MS/X, at these prices. As history shows, demand for those cars far exceeded initial expectations, so time will tell. I think Tesla basically has a monopoly in the solar roof market and they know it. Also, I think current prices are still generally competitive with new premium roof + solar panels whereas it was competitive with composition shingles before recent increase. Unlike with cars, Tesla can customize final contract prices as needed to maintain sufficient demand. Prices quoted on the website are just ballparks.

Now that PW is included with all orders, the demand equation shifts dramatically toward people that need/want battery backup because there’s no other way to get PWs (at least directly through Tesla). I can only imagine what 3rd parties are charging for PW but the last I checked prices were outrageous.

The sky is not falling on solar roof but some folks in this thread have indeed gotten screwed over.
 
TE: "Installability, what's that?"


"But while the roof has sparked the imagination of fans, particularly with ambitious projects that adorn even larger buildings, Rao argues that the focus on the cool and eye-catching won’t increase adoption as much as other changes."

“'If you really want to go from roughly two percent penetration in U.S. homes [Pew Research placed the figure at six percent in 2019] to, like, 20 percent penetration of solar, we are solving the wrong problem by trying to design glass roofs,' Rao says. 'The problem to solve is, how do you simplify the installability and therefore reduce cost?'”
 
Probably some of you are filing for arbitration today and had the same question as me regarding how to get Tesla to pay the fees when they won't respond to your emails. I reached out to adr.org and they had the following response:

Navigate to www.adr.org and select “File or Access Your Case,” then choose “Fast File a Case.” On this screen, you will be directed to:

Upload a completed filing form

Upload a copy of the arbitration or mediation agreement

Please mark in the “Special Comments” box that the contract calls for a different allocation of filing fees. Then, mark the filing fee as “0”. This will skip the credit card payment screen and give you your case number.

If Tesla refuses to pay, adr.org can refuse to perform any arbitrations for them (which I assume would basically make the arbitration clause unenforceable). It is pretty easy to file BTW. Just fill out a short PDF and upload it with your executed contract.
 
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Fall guy?

Tesla’s head of energy operations has left the company amid an important growth phase for the ‘Tesla Energy’ division.


You knew someone had to get fired over this. Tesla's plan, just like with the old roadster and Model S, is to come out with a product so cool that people will pay a premium price for it.

Had they used today's pricing originally they might have had the same number of solar roof orders. You can see how many are going forward even after the increase, its an exclusive, expensive product, but its cool and it works.

To mis-price it so badly, and then to mis-handle the adjustment, is a firing offense. Almost managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but ultimately the product is just too cool.
 
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You knew someone had to get fired over this. Tesla's plan, just like with the old roadster and Model S, is to come out with a product so cool that people will pay a premium price for it.

Had they used today's pricing originally they might have had the same number of solar roof orders. You can see how many are going forward even after the increase, its an exclusive, expensive product, but its cool and it works.

To mis-price it so badly, and then to mis-handle the adjustment, is a firing offense. Almost managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but ultimately the product is just too cool.
It is not surprising heads would roll, though I still don't think the issue is they mis-priced things originally. As a combination of marketing the product, getting install experience, and trying to reduce costs through volume, the original pricing was probably reasonable. To me, it seems like they failed to properly manage their backlog and monitor the real-world costs, with the result that they failed to start increasing the prices at a point where they could have made the increase apply to future contracts rather than also applying them to existing ones (which, whether legal or not, certainly created more headaches than had they made the increase not be retroactive.) This suggests a lack of good internal controls and management oversight. Whether this ex-employee is at fault or there were directives from even further up, I can only guess.
 
It is not surprising heads would roll, though I still don't think the issue is they mis-priced things originally. As a combination of marketing the product, getting install experience, and trying to reduce costs through volume, the original pricing was probably reasonable. To me, it seems like they failed to properly manage their backlog and monitor the real-world costs, with the result that they failed to start increasing the prices at a point where they could have made the increase apply to future contracts rather than also applying them to existing ones (which, whether legal or not, certainly created more headaches than had they made the increase not be retroactive.) This suggests a lack of good internal controls and management oversight. Whether this ex-employee is at fault or there were directives from even further up, I can only guess.
Judging by the LinkedIn profiles, TE replaced an apparently talented solar engineer with a business development person. To me that suggests that somebody higher up thinks that this is a business management issue, rather than a technical one, but I don't know either individual personally.
 
If you never seen this it's worth taking a look. It comes down to the loss of potential gain.

Thanks for sharing the video, which had a number of educational points in it. In particular, the graphic putting the price of a solar roof in the context of other premium roofs, such as standing metal seam and slate roofs.

I found it quite interesting that the roofer makes what I think is an excellent point point about the ease of repairing a solar roof compared to an asphalt shingle roof. Almost any small repair to an asphalt shingle roof will not match for color or grit density and will always look different, which I think tend to turn small asphalt repairs into large ones. (You end up reshingling a whole plane of the roof.)
 
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