Is this the makings of TSLA part 2? It has basically the same setup, doesn't it? I would think all SCTY would need to do in the coming quarter report is to show profitability and cash flow positive, and we are off to who knows where. Or am I being way optimistic?
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Is this the makings of TSLA part 2? It has basically the same setup, doesn't it? I would think all SCTY would need to do in the coming quarter report is to show profitability and cash flow positive, and we are off to who knows where. Or am I being way optimistic?
doggusfluffy
Closed
I never seem to find analyst reports. I find plenty of click-bait "news" sources which reference the MS upgrade to $104...but never the actual report.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I believe it was also Morgan Stanley that first gave TSLA a huge upgrade just before their squeeze. $104 is still under value, but there is no new guidance yet so you have to remain conservative.
Speaking of cash flow positive.....we know that was the year-end 2016 goal for SCTY in a post-ITC setup. What does the horizon look like now? With install costs down to $1.92, they just need to lower their acquisition costs to be CFP, right? I assume since the ITC was to continue through 2016 regardless, there is no change in the timeline?
Comparing to TSLA short squeeze, as tempting as it maybe, we should also appreciate the differences in circumstances.
1) When TSLA squeeze began, the price already shot out of the historical price range. In case of SCTY the price is well withing historical prices. So some shorts are in red, but some shorts are still in green. We need pretty much all shorts to be in red and that too by a sizeable amount to trigger a scramble to cover.
I was hoping that increased guidance, analysts reports will do it. But today's MS price target increase has no impact at all. That's a bit of a downer.
2) It's nearly impossible to trigger a positive EPS in case of SCTY. They occasionally post it due to random movements in the 'noncontrollable interests' line item in Statement of Operations. But that positive EPS is meaningless and the stock reaction has been muted in the past.
I am somewhat resetting my expectations of a squeeze now. Maybe it will be a slow gradual squeeze as more and more long buying happens over time.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Natural gas is up almost 9% today, to $1.923/MMBTU. I see this a good for solar. TAN is up 2.6%.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Gerasimental
Member
Agree with this, as I stated a few pages back. Too many shorts still green. Still think SCTY will rise to, and well above, ATH medium-term, but not that it will happen in one almighty squeeze.
Also strong shorts that are still green will be using up their remaining ammo to create dips and exit possibilities, resulting in a protracted battle. I can still only see one logical outcome in the long run.
Just now came to know that 14 out of 18 analysts already updated their price targets since Dec 16th. So Morgan Stanley's update today roughly marks the completion of the updates owing to ITC.
Now I guess only thing left is guidance update. I wonder if it will come out before ER. They need to think through the strategy now (if they haven't already). At a minimum they need to get together with the Board for signoff. So I am guessing early to mid Jan if at all. But then it's very close to ER anyway. Why bother? Why not simply talk about it in ER in late Jan.
Now I guess only thing left is guidance update. I wonder if it will come out before ER. They need to think through the strategy now (if they haven't already). At a minimum they need to get together with the Board for signoff. So I am guessing early to mid Jan if at all. But then it's very close to ER anyway. Why bother? Why not simply talk about it in ER in late Jan.
Be patient. There has only been one upgrade since ITC passed, and I feel he was premature.
Solarcity (and all the rest of solar) will give revised guidance first.
once guidance is out, new analyst ratings will come out... Even Morgan Stanley's today.
again, revised guidance will dictate everything that follows.
doggusfluffy
Closed
It does seem weird to have a lull like this. Holidays and less trading days perhaps too? Also, it still seems like the Tesla Energy has become the opposite of Tesla killer articles which use Tesla as the preeminent EV. The press constantly references energy storage products as the benchmark, but the market isn't taking Tesla Energy into account either it seems. I still view SolarCity as having a global opportunity here...well beyond the US markets if they chose to expand panel manufacturing and Zep hardware sales and installations.
Germany's Sonnen takes on Tesla Powerwall in the U.S. | Utility Dive
Germany's Sonnen takes on Tesla Powerwall in the U.S. | Utility Dive
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
People are still uncertain and that's fine. An ITC change shouldn't change our estimation as investors of how much the wider public "gets it". That will come with earnings and guidance soon enough. If the world doesn't wake up after guidance is revised, they almost certainly will after 3Q16. Either way, I'm good
To me, this is the ideal situation. $100 is at this point a near certainty, but we will still have these little dips until guidance is revised in late Jan or early Feb. We now have a month to look for buying opportunities. Keeping my fingers crossed that we can cross $140 by Thanksgiving.
jhm
Well-Known Member
It's strange how Sonnen thinks they can talk up a battery that is many times more expensive than a Powerwall. I really don't see how they can go to market with these prices. It's like some new panel maker talking up how they're going to enter the solar market with a 200W panel priced at $2.50/W. Why would you want to spend $9900 on a 4 kWh battery? Bizarre.
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Massive cup and handle. Nothing else needs to be said. Consolidating at prior resistance. Technically a bit overbought, but short interest is far too high, and fundamentals more than justify the rally. I think the term is overbought buried? Not to mention it was extremely oversold. The rally is more of a reversal of the huge drop that was entirely due to fear that the ITC wouldn't be extended. Pause before next leg up. If it breaks $60 on volume will retest 52 week high.
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Sonnen's business model might not be legal in the USA. Even if it is, the technology hasn't been proven to work and to be safe. It also hasn't been shown how their technology is more cost effective. Also, there is no way Sonnen has enough capital or batteries to be a threat to Tesla.
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Sonnen's business model might not be legal in the USA. Even if it is, the technology hasn't been proven to work and to be safe. It also hasn't been shown how their technology is more cost effective. Also, there is no way Sonnen has enough capital or batteries to be a threat to Tesla.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Surprisingly volume is under the new higher average 4.25m...and TSLA is 1.67m. Such a quiet day considering all the excitement lately. Best of luck to SpaceX tonight too.
Haven't seen this posted yet:
Elon Musk talks Carbon tax, Mars Energy at AGU (12.15.15) - YouTube
Haven't seen this posted yet:
Elon Musk talks Carbon tax, Mars Energy at AGU (12.15.15) - YouTube
The short rebate rate came down a bit in the afternoon to 58.4% (from 64.81 in the morning).
I guess our friends over in shortville like to buy in dips
I guess if nothing all these shorts provide a stronger base price for us.
That is my concern -- that the current price is to some extent supported by ongoing short covering.
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