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SolarCity (SCTY)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Curt Renz, Mar 24, 2014.

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  1. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    #4061 jhm, Dec 23, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2015
    Latin America Moving Quickly On Renewable Energy | OilPrice.com

    Tip of the hat to these Latin American countries that are making the transition to renewable energy look easy. They are saving money doing it. I would expect countries that move ahead like that to grow their economies at a faster rate. Low energy costs are key to enhancing productivity which is what really drives an economy forward.

    Note that in the recent auction in Chile solar came in at $65/MWh while coal was at $85/MWh. And this does not even consider the health and medical costs of coal. If I remember this correctly some of the solar included storage.
     
  2. Foghat

    Foghat Active Member

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    #4062 Foghat, Dec 23, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2015
    Brian Sandavol was legal council for the Utility Shareholders of Nevada. His top advisors are NV Energy lobbyists.

    Each of the PUCN commissioners were appointed, and then re-appointed to their posts by none other then one Brian Sandavol. Not elected, but hand picked and appointed. You know what that means? Brian Sandavol gave them their jobs, he hired them.

    These same three individuals made the ruling on roof top solar yesterday.

    And some out there want to think this was an impartial decision by an "independent body"?

    lets get real here...

    remember, they love electric cars because that adds new revenue stream to nv energy. They love utiltiy solar because they acquire cheaper whole sale(because of 30% ITC) while maintaining "renewable standards" goals; however they do not reduce retail rates to rate payers... Only roof top does that...

    update:
    maybe Brian Sandavol is affraid something will be found on a text message or two with his contacts at NV energy... It's funny, the same text message situation is happening in Arizona with a PUC commissioner there. Funny both individuals say roof top solar are "bullying" them. Let's see how this shakes out...
    Sandoval’s text messages to NV Energy should be made public, experts say - Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun Mobile

    update2:
    NPR interview with Lyndon rive on Nevada PUC decision and Brian Sandavol's unprecedented pre PUC decision press release as well as text messages to nv energy over net metering decision.
    Nevada Public Radio
     
  3. Foghat

    Foghat Active Member

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    revisted conversation on nv energy/buffet

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    more revisited conversation on nv energy/buffet actions

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    More

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  4. Foghat

    Foghat Active Member

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    More

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    more
     
  5. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Active Member

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    Originally Posted by Foghat


    I can't believe NV energy argues whole sale utiltiy solar is the same as retail roof top solar, so they should pay he same price for net metering. Anyone with a pea brain can see right through that fallacy. There is a whole lot more in the interviews. At one point the nv energy rep says he's just a little old engineer and can't argue as well as the sunrun rep. That says it all....

    Foghat,

    i like who grins when he fights. It is time for two things, to start grinning, and start fighting.
     
  6. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    Screen Shot 2015-12-24 at 10.33.22 AM.png

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    That makes sense James... I have never seen any prospectus for the ABS. Given that they are all private placements, I assume the prospectus is private as well. I clearly remember S&P note while rating one of the issues. They only talked about the homeowners ability/willingness to pay and regulatory environment was very much listed as one of the risks. I will dig around maybe I can find that.

    In any case, even if it wasn’t done in the previous deals, it’s always possible to structure the next round of deals in such a way there are adequate protections for the investors and that should put a lid on the rates. I am all for the firm/shareholders taking the brunt of defaults than tax-equity partners or asset-backed financiers. External financing is the life blood of this company. So long as the system of financing is not ruptured, we can endure any losses and move on. As other have pointed out, Nevada in itself is not a huge market (like CA) that we need to worry about in itself. The issue was repercussions to other things as NV sets precedence. As discussed, I am convinced now management will be able to find ways to contain the damage.

    I think the next big potential trigger for a massive squeeze is an ABS pricing/placement announcement. I actually hope two deals happen back to back. One for MyPower and another for the usual lease/PPAs. If these deals come out at 4 to 4.5% coupons. Man, I can only imagine the frantic short covering, as that puts a massive hole in short thesis (that financing costs are higher than ROIs).

    Here’s to a massive short squeeze shortly!!
     
  7. tftf

    tftf Member

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    #4067 tftf, Dec 24, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2015
    Germany probably is one of the markets with the most incentives for alternative energy (aside from BEVs, and subsidies for BEVs are still being discussed). There's a reason why German's Sonnenbatterie (now branded Sonnen) was a pioneer in this sector. Sonnen is expanding into the U.S. and other markets...

    Germanys Top Residential Battery Company Ramps Up Its US Strategy to Rival Tesla | Greentech Media

    Coming back to SCTY, these business models are more of consumer finance operation with a solar installation/service arm attached imho. Just another recent example on the low barriers to entry...

    Sungevity Raises Giant $600M Fund From Apollo to Finance Residential Solar | Greentech Media

    This looks all about who is able to raise the most money at low rates to somehow finance operations / installations and then hope for a decent payback/ROI within 10-20 years.

    I don't see SCTY and rivals like RUN, VSLR or Sungevity primarily as solar companies, but rather sector-specific consumer banks / leasing operations - and therein lies a lot of risk for investors (lots of complex, long-term models and assumptions).

    Like traditional consumer banking/lending, the sector has tight regulation attached which can greatly impact these long-term model (the discussed Nevada decision is just the latest example, more to follow...).
     
  8. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    I hope people appreciate the detail in the picture I posted just above.

    The rebate rate to short SCTY reached 90%
     
  9. colettimj

    colettimj Member

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    Isn't trading from now until year end typically low volume? If so, I think that will also hurt shorts as it will be very painful if they try to cover with low volume.
     
  10. blakegallagher

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    That is amazing, I love hearing Lyndon speak I got goosebumps hearing his emotion about fighting Nevada's terrible decision here with everything they have. And I'm glad a separate solar company is pushing to get the text messages released between Sandoval and NV Energy this whole thing smells dirty and SolarCity will come out clean as a whistle
     
  11. CaptainKirk

    CaptainKirk Member

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    I've been trying to figure out exactly this means but I can't wrap my head around the significance. Can you explain to me simply what this means? Is it equivalent to a 90% dividend on an annualized basis the lender of the shares earns?


    Thanks in advance.
     
  12. blakegallagher

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    It is the fee short sellers must pay to hold shares of solar city short. It varies with the amount of shares available to short but if it stays at this rate(which it won't) it means if you had a million dollars of SolarCity shares that you were selling short it would cost you $900,000 in fees to hold it for the Year
     
  13. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  14. SW2Fiddler

    SW2Fiddler Your concern. It's noted...

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    Call up Leilani. Let's get the texts projected by the Racing Extinction Model S.
    (if we can't find the texts, I'll make some up)
     
  15. gavine

    gavine Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast

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  16. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Should we start a "Cost to Borrow SolarCity Shares for Shorting Hits 90%" thread specifically for shorts commentary? That might be fun.

    Reading the Seeking Alpha and other nonsense in the Tesla thread is a good time.
     
  17. Foghat

    Foghat Active Member

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    #4077 Foghat, Dec 24, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2015
    Nevada Bureau of Consumer Protection files for immediate stay on PUCN decision.

    Strikes right back at Sandavol and gang...

    Nevada agency seeks to block new rates for rooftop-solar customers | Las Vegas Review-Journal

    "Further, the Commission's Order does not recognize or acknowledge there could be significant value of a robust roof-top solar program that could negate the need for a $900 million investment (in a) natural gas plant in the near future; a plant that would likely only be needed for a few months out of the year," the filing says.
     
  18. blakegallagher

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    Merry Christmas all! I hope saint nick brings us all a short squeeze of epic proportions.
     
  19. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Active Member

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    Happy Holidays, my very best to all and all your families.
     
  20. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Welcoming the Bright Daystar this Christmas. Wishing you light and energy all year through!
     
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