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SolarCity (SCTY)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Curt Renz, Mar 24, 2014.

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  1. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    #4101 jhm, Dec 28, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2015
    Scientists have invented a new glass coating for omnidirectional solar panels - ScienceAlert

    Glass coating lets solar panels absorb light from multiple angles, clean themselves : TreeHugger

    This is pretty nifty, a way to boost cell efficiency by 5.2% to 27.7%. It sounds like this could boost SolarCity's 22% efficiency panels to 27%. And this could be particularly useful for rooftop installation were the roof angles are less than ideal. Hopefully, a glass coating would not be too expensive to produce or apply.

    To put this into perspective, SunPower and other panels makers are striving to add 0.5% each year. So this coating could be a 10-year leap forward in technology. This is about a 23% gain in panel output.
     
  2. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Also note where this coating research has come from, Saudi Arabia. The Saudis would like to become a solar power exporter in the region. Here's the twist...

    The Saudis consume about 1 mb/d oil generating electricity. They need need to install about 135 GW of solar to free up this domestic consumption of oil. So what happens to that oil? It will likely get exported.

    Will the Saudis build up their solar export business, it has the potential to increase its oil exports by upto 1 mb/d, about 10% of all the oil it produces.

    If this coating is a go for production, the economics get even more compelling for the Saudis. Could it be that this solar export has factored into their change in oil policy. Before they become a serious solar exporter, they've got to dump another 1 mb/d on the oil export market just by adding solar domestically.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Dewa sets record-low target for third phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park | The National

    This article also indicates that Acwa, a Saudi solar installer is contemplating using coatings to help with the problem of rooftop solar on high rise buildings. I wonder if this means that they are considering vetically mounted panels.
     
  3. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    Yes, indeed. Short covering is happening through the weakness.

    Screen Shot 2015-12-28 at 4.23.46 PM.png

    The rebate rate history in the last column (Max Rates) is the best indicator of short trajectory.
     
  4. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Active Member

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  5. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    Nevadas Solar Flare - WSJ

     
  6. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Until I see one actual step toward solar I'm not buying anything the Saudi royal family says regarding solar. They've announced tons of massive "plans" for solar in the kingdom only to delay them for 5-10 years for random reasons.

    It makes all the economic sense in the world to go solar crazy in that neighborhood and still they do nothing. I think it's infinitely more likely we see the royal family stall until they're overthrown than for them to somehow form a logical sustainable energy policy.

    If we had a decent plan of our own we'd frack like mad for 6 years in a subsidized fashion and let the angry mob handle these totalitarian "governments". Frack like crazy and tax like crazy with renewables getting the vast majority of the subsidy. You'd end up with no OPEC and a halfway energy independent US that was on it's way to sustainability.
     
  7. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    That news story is full of hate. WSJ clearly wants the NV issue to become an example that others would follow. We know for a very long time that WSJ has been ultra anti Tesla and SolarCity. They are trying to make the most out of the NV situation.
     
  8. dakh

    dakh Member

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    I was looking everywhere for some material news to explain this morning's move and didn't find any. So bought some Feb calls, looks like at the very bottom so far.
     
  9. dha

    dha Member

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    I think it's more accurate to say that WSJ is a very right-wing publication with an obvious anti-renewable / anti-green agenda that is not specific to Tesla / SC. I say this as a daily reader and subscriber to the print edition.
     
  10. Klaus

    Klaus Member

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    Does anyone have a link to spec sheets or reviews of recent vintage Silevo panels? I'm curious if they've improved on the technology since the buyout by Solar City.

    Thanks!
     
  11. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    I thought today's move was in response to yesterday evening's WSJ piece. The one that doggusfluffy posted. Google search "Nevada’s Solar Flare" to read the full story while avoiding the pay wall.
     
  12. dakh

    dakh Member

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    Yes thank you, that's venomous enough. I did say "material news" not "opinion piece" though ;) .

    So to recap the current situation, the halt that was petitioned for by Consumer Protection Agency didn't do anything (yet?), and we don't have any timelines on the litigation that would resolve the conflict over retroactive changes. Anything I'm missing?
     
  13. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Active Member

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    Merchants of Doubt

    I just finished "Merchants of Doubt" by Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway. The cover describes "How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming". Throughout the book it proves how the issues of Acid Rain, the Ozone Hole, Secondhand Smoke, and Climate Change were misrepresented by conservative think tanks such as the George C. Marshall institute. Interestingly, the "Wall Street Journal" and "Investor's Business Daily" played a central roles in disseminating misleading information and attacking peer-reviewed scientific articles.

    When publishing articles about climate change, and/or clean energy neither the Wall Street Journal nor Investor's Business Daily should be trusted.

    I highly recommend reading "Merchants of Doubts" and verifying the references. Every American should.
     
  14. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    Sticking with the pattern, the rebate rate went further lower to 32.15% today. So shorts are continuing to cover into weakness.

    This persistent weakness is frustrating though. I wonder what will arrest it.

    ABS, ABS, where are you...
     
  15. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Active Member

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    Reid Statement on Public Utilities Commission Decision on Rooftop Solar


    December 23, 2015 | Press Releases
    lg-share-en.gif
    Las Vegas, NV – Nevada Senator Harry Reid sent the following statement after today’s Public Utilities Commission (PUC) Decision on rooftop solar:
    “Everyone knows how I feel about solar, including rooftop solar. This decision by the Public Utilities Commission is a setback in our efforts to make Nevada the solar capital of the country. I also question the legality of the PUC’s decision to interfere with existing rooftop solar agreements. Nevadans, who already have rooftop solar, have made a financial commitment to do so. No level of government, including the Public Utilities Commission, should be able to retroactively make it more difficult for those Nevadans to pay their power bills.”
     
  16. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    #4117 doggusfluffy, Dec 29, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2015
    Regulators urged to delay new rates for solar customers - Las Vegas Sun News

    Arizona regulators seek compromise for solar installations

    I guess we're just waiting on revised guidance from SolarCity with 5 years of ITC now...any day now...right? Get back to that explosive growth again? :wink:
     
  17. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Solar City lures spin off complex to South Buffalo | wivb.com

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    Why SolarCity Corp (SCTY) Bears Shouldn't Worry - Schaeffer's Investment Research


    Put/call parity indicates more demand for puts than calls. Bears are trying to short with options.

    Watch implied volatility when buying options. Conditionas are ripe for put IV to exceed call IV, in violation of put call parity. Longs can exploit this by buying call and/or selling puts in lieu of holding shares. Bears are paying a premium to attract counterparties.
     
  18. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Option prices are definitely coming back to Earth. Good opportunity for my homies and family to get in on the game. Will buy on a dip next week(if there's no revised guidance by then!)
     
  19. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    Thanks for sharing. Reid's questioning of the legality of PUC actions is very encouraging.
     
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