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SolarCity (SCTY)

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jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,315
30,981
Atlanta, GA
energy (kWh) is not power (kW)

Coal 10,500 BTU / kWh (fuel required for electricity)
Gas 8,000 BTU/KWh

25.5kWh = 267,750 BTU of Coal or
204,000 BTU of Gas

1 tonne of coal is about 27,778,243 BTU
267,750 / 27,778,243 = 0.96%
0.96% x coal price = savings in fuel cost = 0.96% x $30 = 29 cents (USA coal price is between $10 and $40 per tonne) choose $30

natural gas is $2.30 / MMBTU
$2.30 x 267,750 / 1,000,000
0.96% x coal price = savings in fuel cost = 0.96% x $30 = 61 cents

apart from the fairness implications for solar leasing and the general public, 25.5 kWh is a decent approximation for energy used for 100 miles of EV travel.
so for every 100miles travelled using 100% (max) fossil fuel, and EV consumes between 30cents-60cents of fuel.

Ok, let me show you my math. An equivalent LED uses about 15W. So replacing 100W is an 85W saving. Now 85W × 10 hours/day × 30 days/month = 25,500 Wh/month = 25.5 kWh/ month. Retail rates in Nevada are $0.116/kWh. This is a saving of 25.5 kWh /month × 0.116 $/kWh = $2.958/month. So the savings on a retail power bill is a loss of revenue for the utility. So if theregulators are 350,000 ratepayers saving $2.958/month over 12 months, that is a revenue shortfall of $12.4M.

Let me know if you see any problem with my math. Thanks.
 

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,315
30,981
Atlanta, GA
U.S. solar created more jobs than oil and gas extraction : Renew Economy

This is better than the Huff post peice.

Remember the last Republican National Convention? It was all about praising the "Job Creators". Somehow I don't think that theme will fly this year unless they honor Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive. Yep, that's right. Real American entrepreneurs born in Africa. Creating jobs and being manufacturing back to the US. I'm glad Libertarians and Tea Partners are calling out the crony GOP for what it is. Using government to pick monopoly winners in Nevada over competion for real Job Creators. The GOP is F'd up.

Sorry about the political rant. I have no beef with conservatives who are true to their principles. It's the hypocrisy that drives me nuts.
 

traxila

Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
1,654
8,953
NYC
If I may say, I think SCTY is holding up OK in the face of market carnage. Buying opps here are hard to identify. If not solar, then what do you load up for the future. Utilities?
 

dakh

Supporting Member
Jun 14, 2015
1,138
2,491
Seattle, WA
Hard for the market to "get it" when your platform is not being articulated in a fashion that analysts and individual investors can understand. He's an absolute genius and one of the handful of people actually savings the world, but Lyndon comes off as a 2nd year Environmental Studies major in every public appearance I've seen.

The noise needs to be ignored, but at the same time you don't want to give people reason to believe the noise when it's shouted in the CEO's face and he has a stuttering/disjointed response.

Yea I'm kinda shocked that some folks here think that was a reasonable performance on Lyndon's part. I'd say it's on the lower end of Ok but this is such a critical issue that anything but "killed it" is not good enough. With such an excellent execution otherwise I'm surprised he's not self-aware enough to understand he's not a good improviser and send someone else out there to do the talking.
 

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,315
30,981
Atlanta, GA
If I may say, I think SCTY is holding up OK in the face of market carnage. Buying opps here are hard to identify. If not solar, then what do you load up for the future. Utilities?

Ha. I think I'll hold out for the Aramco IPO. It should be the world's single greatest stranded asset.
 

doggusfluffy

Closed
Jun 1, 2014
979
428
Seattle
Nevada regulators keep new rate hikes for rooftop solar

“NV Energy never profits in any way, shape or form from … the cost shifting and there is and was a cost shift,” Geraghty said.


Nevada regulators deny requests to pause rooftop solar rate hike - VEGAS INC

“This commission has been working tirelessly, not to penalize people or to favor one technology over the other, but to create a path forward for rooftop solar in this state that treats all ratepayers fairly,” Thomson said. “That’s what we are trying to do.”
 

ggies07

Supporting Member
Nov 8, 2012
3,796
6,900
Ft. Worth, TX
Elon should have built the Gigafactory in California.

Speaking of that, Tesla is going to cover the roof with solar panels, WTF was the mayor thinking? Tesla has already created jobs in the state from building just the small portion they have and will indirectly help bring other business to the state. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you......
 

farzyness

Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?
Aug 8, 2013
674
1,493
Earth
Got notice on thinkorswim that Height Analytics is saying that Nevada PUC Solar NEM decision will be reversed.
 

SBenson

Active Member
May 22, 2014
1,871
4,515
Benson
I would like to smile with you guys but I can't. The resets in Retained Value have been utterly punishing.


  • First came the reset from RV to NRV


  • Then came the NRV reset from bookings to installs.

    I don't know how many here realise that the NRV now is about $17/share based on latest math in Analyst Day presentation. That is a reset from $33/share announced in Q3 ER.


  • Just now apparently Bernstein put out a note saying that management is considering asset sales to institutions to raise cash. And the discount rate is - 7.5%

    That throws the 6% discount rate assumption for RV computation into the drain. Based on the new 7.5% I wonder what the NRV/share will be.


  • That still includes the renewal 'assumption' fully by the way. If the asset sale comes through, all SolarCity and it's shareholders are left with is the rusted system at the end of the 20 year lease. Anybody is free to put what ever fair value they want to put on it. But management's assumption is 90% value on 100% of the systems. That is included in the soon to be reset $17/share.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,514
22,548
Philadelphia, PA
Panic!
Buy low, sell high.

Options prices......wow....2018 $80's @ 2.90 and dropping.
Not going to be able to resist 2017 $70's when they hit $1.70.

- - - Updated - - -

Yea I'm kinda shocked that some folks here think that was a reasonable performance on Lyndon's part. I'd say it's on the lower end of Ok but this is such a critical issue that anything but "killed it" is not good enough. With such an excellent execution otherwise I'm surprised he's not self-aware enough to understand he's not a good improviser and send someone else out there to do the talking.

You mean today's market action doesn't feel like questions were answered sufficiently?

I get a little fired up in the moment, but something needs to be done about this. Engineers belong far far away from cameras!
 

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,315
30,981
Atlanta, GA
I estimate that a change in discount from 6% to 7.5% would have the following approximate effects:
Initial 20 year term -10.6%
Renewal 10 term -28.7%
Initial + 90% Renewal -14.1%

I would point out that none of this actually changes the underlying assets. It only changes the valuation placed on these assets. So what we get is a more conservative valuation, which Benson has wanted to see for quite some time.

To be fair, SolarCity has always published sensitivity analyses showing how retained value changes varying the discount rate.

As we move into a potentially increasing interest rate environment, it is prudent to use a higher discount. The discount needs to be high enough that SolarCity is confident that it can secure financing well below it. This way adding financing increases NRV rather than decreasing it.

Of course, in the short run investors can freak out over this, but in the long run I think it is prudent to use a more conservative discount. In fact, I would argue that they should use a 10% discount as this is customary for utilities. This would make it easier for investors to compare SolarCity to utilities, and in a high interest rate environment where financing is for utilities it will be tough for SolarCity as well. For quite sometime utilities will be SolarCity's primary competion, so it makes sense to use comparable valuation assumptions.
 

Foghat

Active Member
Apr 21, 2015
1,214
5,781
Brentwood
What did Elon say... The market is bi-polar?... I'd have to echo that just by some actions of the apparent investors in Solarcity of late. There is no revelation here. Did some forget what was said at the analyst day brief almost a month ago? Tanguy Serra clearly stated Solarcity could easily capitalize approximately 32% more of its cash flows if they wanted, and this was pre ITC decision. To suggest a 7.5% discount rate is completely false and without any actual data what so ever. lets get a grip here.

Lets all remember, the point of Nevada situation is to DELAY. Put this in the courts where it will take a long time to resolve. In the meantime, nv energy still pursuing utiltiy business on the nat gas front and utiltiy level renewables(more as renewable compliance then anything). They still have to raise rates to pay for all of this "infrastructure" investment, so once the decisions are made to make these investments, you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube as they say... Nevada will build the new nat gas plants, will build the big geothermal plants, etc... This has nothing to do with actually winning against rooftop solar.

Just a cursory look at SB 374 and the other LAWS regarding the PUC, and it becomes painfully clear: they have violated the law. I've talked about the legislative purpose has not been followed. That is clear. In addition the PUC has made multiple PUBLIC statements that are unequivally BIAS against rate payers with solar. Both noble and thomsen, 66% of the commission just yesterday said they are looking to protect all rate payers without solar over rate payers with solar. This is just the tip of the iceberg here with their comments on this case. Unequivally, a court of law will see impartiality was out the window and as a result there are grounds to overturn the commissions decision, dissolve the commission, and require a new commission to be appointed. Commissioner noble already said rate payers with solar will be reimbursed if this turns out wrong for them, so he's already padding the nest in that sense.

this is a massive legal situation now, and they are okay with it because that is the intent. While this is in court, they will approve new capacity/infrastructure investments and nv energy will happily receive payment for them.

Delay, delay, delay is the mantra.

If you think anti grandfathering will happen anywhere else in Solarcity markets, think again. There is not another political/PUC/state legislature like this anywhere else in their markets. Even Arizona has a PUC election, which is another story. However, look what is happening to Arizona commissions right now and you'll see the path of Nevada is not going to end well for that PUC/governor/nv energy. Tell me why all of the sudden two Arizona commissioners are personally flying to Solarcity headquarters to meet with Lyndon Rive personally to "turn the page" "start anew" and "compromise"? Why such a dramatic action? What caused such a u-turn in their sentiment???

Nv energy might have delay as their mantra, but distributed energy has "follow the email/texts" as theirs...
 
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