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SolarCity (SCTY)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Curt Renz, Mar 24, 2014.

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  1. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    #7001 AudubonB, Oct 31, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2016
    Mild-mannered Mod note:

    And in some forums, you get kicked out of being able to participate when you make severely provocative statements at the same time as weaseling out of taking responsibility for them by using words like "...are rumored..." without any kind of reference.

    I'm all ears to learning something of what Silevo's cost structure might be; your antepenultimate sentence does not provide any insight.

    In-post Mod edit: refer to post #7010
     
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  2. NOLA_Mike

    NOLA_Mike Grouchy

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    Crosspost from the Short Term Thread, just rec'd this info on tomorrow's webcast:

    Screenshot 2016-10-31 21.17.33.png
     
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  3. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    Inside Look: SolarCity Plant Ready for Outfitting

     
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  4. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018

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  5. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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  6. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    It's a shame that I won't get a chance to read through this material or listen to the call (let alone comment on it) for more than a week.

    In any case here is my summary position on the merger (as noted several times in various threads).

    The merger will utmost likely happen. I read the market pricing as 90% chance the deal will happen. If it doesn't happen, SCTY will drop to sub-$5 almost immediately. More importantly I speculate that SC will file for bankruptcy protection within a matter of weeks. Having said that, given those assumptions, the current arbitrage of 10% suggests that very approximately there is a 90% likelihood that the merger will go through. I can't disagree with that.

    However bad mess SC has been, I fundamentally believe Musk will set it right. It might be a painful few quarters but SC will be fundamentally restructured.There will be enormous emphasis on upfront cash deals, just like selling cars. Much of the sales force laid off. Even if the MW installs shrink dramatically, Musk won't care much. His immediate priority should be and will be conserving cash flow.

    Some commentators seem to misguidedly tie full-service business operation with PPA/leases. SC can very much be a "full service" shop while seeking upfront cash payment (facilitated through 3rd party bank loans directly given to homeowners). Again, very much like Tesla cars. Service is still owned and performed by Tesla itself even though car is paid for up front (via loans).

    For long term TSLA shareholders this is yet another "model X ramp" type of an episode, a few quarters of pain. But hopefully things will at least become "neutral', if not positive, in a matter of utmost an year.
     
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  7. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Illustrate any scenario in which SCTY would be forced to file for bankruptcy. There's quite a large difference between executing a world changing master plan and simply trying to make money in an industry with exponential growth.

    The only real expense this company has is expansion cost related to Elon's master plan. They could fire half of the sales staff, sign a marketing partnership with Tesla, exit unprofitable markets and be wildly profitable in a matter of months.

    You're getting laser focused on the perceived negatives and forget these markets are still growing at 30-80%. Give me a 35% marketshare of that and even with a huge amount of overhead I'll give you something far cash positive in months.

    Installation and energy services to homeowners is where the money will be. Nothing has changed.
     
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  8. secondstage

    secondstage Member

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    #7008 secondstage, Nov 2, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2016
    Guys do you know something about the (hopefully last) Report Q3 from Solarcity? I can't find any informations on the
    investor page when they will realease it. They tweeted last week they had an amazing quater. I think Solarcity financial situation looks a lot better then a half year ago. Buffalo will be cashflow positive 2019.
     
  9. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    #7009 electracity, Nov 2, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 2, 2016
    So, now we have confirmation that the senior Silveo staff is gone from Buffalo, and that Lyndon could not give an example of how Silveo technology will be incorporated into Panasonic's HIT modules.

    "Weasly" in this case was talking to people in solar manufacturing who say that Silveo failed in Buffalo. What are the forum rules about name calling?

    In-post Mod edit: refer to post #7010
     
  10. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Moderator Note:
    Rather than chastising you privately, so that you alone could consider my words, I'm posting this on the thread for all to take to heart. Regardless, do NOT take this as an opportunity to further open-thread discussion, as it is not.

    Much of the decrease in quality of the TMC forum, and the diminution of value to its members, is a result of half-truths and outright fabrications being posted as unexamined facts. This ranges from the $170 make-or-break TSLA floor price for the merger (untrue - a bizarrely generated rumor), to your "rumored to be just under a $1" citation.

    =====>
    I DON"T CARE if it IS true! <==== If you are going to make a statement like that, provide some back story. IF you can't, then keep it to yourself, and use it to buy or sell or cover or short or do whatever you wish. THE TMC FORUM IS NOT TO BE USED FOR RUMOR MONGERING.

    Now, you've gone and compounded your misdeeds in #7009: in yesterday's conference call we heard that ONE senior person at Silevo parted ways with Solar City.

    Second-to-lastly, for you and for everyone else who reads this, I shall reiterate: to place into this forum a provocative statement and calling it a rumor is weaseling out of taking responsibility and it is not permitted. I give immense latitude to what is posted here and expect to continue to do so, but do not try me. If it were another poster who were writing this, I would delete #6999, 7001, 7009 and this post as being out of bounds, but instead, I am going to leave them up, amended as I have done, for all to consider.

    Lastly, for all: the post is not to be taken as one open to the Like/Dislike/Love/Funny/etc buttons. It ends NOW.
     
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  11. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Philip Shen

    Do you - and I think you addressed this earlier, but do you continue to plan to move forward with the Silevo process or do you expect to find - I think you mentioned a hybrid cells that’s possible Silevo and HIT, the HIT cell that Panasonic produces. And if that is the case that you plan on making them a hybrid at a high-level can you explain how that will happen?

    Lyndon Rive

    Sure, we’re basically going to bring the best learnings from both of the team. So I’ll give you an example. So Silevo has kind of reflected a heterojunction cell using a 6-inch wafer, okay. And Panasonic is yet to transition to 6-inch wafer. So we’ll kind of take the Silevo’s learnings on 6-inch and apply that to the learnings that Panasonic has kind of achieved over the years, I mean, at scale and heterojunction cell for gigawatts and beyond.
     
  12. tander

    tander Active Member

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    Yesterday in the conf call I believe they said they plan to post earnings next Wednesday.
     
  13. tander

    tander Active Member

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    Could someone please remind me where the minority interest comes from on the SCTY income statement?
     
  14. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Buffalo is a cost center, so cashflow positive doesn't necessarily have meaning. It really just indicates that the capex is low.
     
  15. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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  16. Green Pete

    Green Pete Member

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    I felt like it was an ambiguous "Wednesday" as in possibly tomorrow. I cant find the link for the call recording. Id like to listen again. It sound was not the best.
     
  17. NOLA_Mike

    NOLA_Mike Grouchy

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    Scroll up to message #7002 - the link is there
     
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  18. Green Pete

    Green Pete Member

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    #7018 Green Pete, Nov 2, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2016
    Anyone want to just in to ~3:30 on the call and try to interpret what Rive says? He says "wednesday" and then "*inaudible* wednesday" again.

    Webcast to Discuss Tesla's Pending Acquisition of Solar City | Tesla Motors

    Edit: After re-listening a number of times Ive decided he says "next week Wednesday". So the 9th. Day after election day, YAY!
     
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  19. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    http://theind.com/article-24174-lus-quietly-clouds-solar%E2%80%99s-future.html
    Florida Supreme Court to consider taking utility-backed solar Amendment 1 off ballot
     
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  20. Lessmog

    Lessmog Supporting Member

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    For the PA:ans here:

     
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