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SolarCity (SCTY)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Curt Renz, Mar 24, 2014.

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  1. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #7041 Ulmo, Nov 9, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2016
    I agree, vote YES on the merger.

    I also agree that Tesla will do very well.

    But, regarding the $1 Trillion: If Elon takes Trump seriously rather than as a joke, then this can come true. Otherwise, if he falls into the koolaid drinking crowd and starts sniping at Trump as some sort of media creation, it's possible that the foundations will start to deteriorate, and that trillion dollars will be more like $50 billion - $250 billion. The Atlantic put it best: Those who voted for and supported Trump during the election took him seriously, not literally, and those who voted against and did not support Trump during the election took him literally and not seriously (and are part of the media sucking koolaid crowd that believed everything the media spoon fed them). While I think Musk is smarter than that, Musk has been very (and appropriately) busy doing a lot of great work on his various companies, and raising his family, and hasn't had enough processing power to figure that out for himself, and fell into a political crack that isn't appropriate for the stature of his companies. Hopefully he sees where he's at and climbs out quickly. While I've said over and over that Trump won't necessarily impede Tesla, I do think that if Elon got along with Trump that Trump could facilitate Tesla in ways that none of us can imagine (please, no conjecture), and that the $1 Trillion would be easy. I'm not talking about underhanded deals, favoritism, mandates, tax incentives, or anything; I'm just talking about efficiency. If anything, Tesla could make some of that money helping the rest of the car companies get on board. (This gets even more nuanced with Solar City, so I think my thoughts are even more leveraged and less well describable.)
     
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  2. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Time to revisit:

    Battle of the Billionaires in Nevada:

    Recap:

    Round 1 was with Buffett (NV Energy) vs. Musk (SCTY). Musk was soundly trounced by the "independent" Nevada PUC who decided Residential Solar needed to go, and basically sent SCTY packing.

    Round 2:

    Sheldon Adelson (Sands) vs. Buffett (NV Energy). With decisive backing of Proposal #3, NV Energy is about to lose it's monopoly. This would eliminate the penalty that the major Casinos in NV would have to pay to get out of NV Energy's monopoly (to the tune of several hundreds of millions of dollars), and open up the energy market in NV.

    Obvious benefit for Sands/Wynn, et al. would be that they could do like MGM and cover their millions of square feet of roofing with Solar, add in batteries, you can figure out the rest. Without penalty, or actually much less than the penalty. Given their real estate, they even could potentially become utilities in themselves. Recall the Adelson is a major supporter of Trump. So I am guessing that any business related renewable energy credit will likely stay in place. Also recall Buffett is (D), Adelson is (R).

    It will take another vote in 2018 to make this so (as Cpt. Picard is apt to say).

    There are two years between SCTY/TSLA merger and when the rules become final. IMHO, Musk has two years to prove the obvious benefits of Solar/TE, get a bunch of contracts, and show that it's the best and cost effective product out there. There's a lot of roofing waiting to be covered here in NV.

    Going to be interesting times...
     
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  3. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    Yeah, good idea to include those. So they are bleeding more cash than I implied.

    Another way to look at things:

    Lyndon Rive's original promise, which was subsequently reinstated by Musk, was to be Cash Flow Positive using non-recourse debt but NOT-using recourse debt.

    What had happened in Q3 is that while cash went up by $113mln, the recourse debt went up by $121mln. So they fell short of $8mln. Which is not too bad.

    Based on the earlier math, the earlier statement still holds. They were able to get some juice out existing book and burn it.
     
  4. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    @SBenson one more question as I try to understand SCTY some more. In the quarterly report they write about their solar asset backed notes as follows

    I am trying to understand what they mean with the carrying value.
     
  5. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    My understanding is that the value of systems (the collateral so to speak) they put in the SPEs is generally much greater than the amount raised through ABS. This is to offer protection to ABS investors against defaults. Thus whatever is put in these vehicles can not be further monetized.

    They say this bit about how the carrying value is computed:

    "Management bases its estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions believed to be reasonable, the results of which form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets and liabilities. Actual results could differ materially from those estimates."

    Sounds like this is the NPV 6 calculation.
     
  6. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    Nevada approves measure to break up NV Energy's monopoly
     
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  7. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Election Results concerning Solar City:

    Others have noted the auspicious results in the Florida and Nevada Voter Initiatives. This is good.

    Less fortunate, however, were the citizens of Arizona. That state elects the members of its utility regulator, there called the "Corporation Commission". The utility-funded candidates obtained a clean sweep; Solar City Tesla Energy's task of working in the Sunshine State just got terribly more difficult.

    Were there other solar-related initiatives, etc., in other states that are appropriate to enumerate?
     
  8. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    ...and by the way:

    Mod Note for ALL:

    Off-topic posts and ranting, after a fashion, will be overlooked in the Investor Sector through this weekend. After that, ALL will be under closer scrutiny than ever.

    Vetinari
     
  9. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    Oh, Jeez
    As rooftop solar costs drop, utility attempts to raise barriers may not work
     
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  10. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Mod Note:

    (not specifically directed toward any recent post; rather, this note is going to ALL active Investor threads).

    LAST day of tolerance toward posts that otherwise would have been, and are, unacceptable. One week of election-related wailing and gnashing of teeth and blaming it on others and overall unproductive posts is enough.
     
  11. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    ***MOD NOTE***

    Okay, fun time is over. I hope all were able to let off all the steam needed, because from now on
    we will have only decorum, and that of the highest order.

    Besides, these Mod Notes are suffering from a bit of overuse.
     
  12. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #7052 Ulmo, Nov 13, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2016
    I like reading this article. It lays out general information and angles. They included this angle, while vague, at least voiced: "But solar advocates counter that the subsidy argument is based on economic studies that do not take into consideration any of the environmental or efficiency benefits from solar installation. When those are calculated, they say, private solar installation produces cost savings for non-solar users." They also included almost as vague statements by the utilities. But what I like about the article is that it at least stated the general parties involved, the current situation and timelines, and the general direction of each of their arguments. It's a good first look at the issue for the uninitiated or forgetful. I wish there was more depth on both the internalities and externalities of those costs.

    ---

    Another subject: As we all know already, Merger shareholder meeting this Thursday for merger vote. SCTY (11AM in Foster City) & TSLA (1PM in Fremont). Details in October 12 SEC filing (click this paragraph).
     
  13. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    The view of voters in West Virginia coal country
    Deep in Virginia’s craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope
    Why isn't coal country asking for a universal basic income...or at least discussing it?
     
  14. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    Do people really want to go back into coal mines? It is one of the worst and most dangerous of jobs. Surely a better solution can be found --so as alternate energy jobs?
     
  15. renim

    renim Active Member

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    Its probably safer than roof top solar installation, but not as safe as utility solar installation.....
    (roof top anything is really unsafe)

    but do people want to go back into coal mines, sure they would. Its more than a job, its a career.
    Other types of mining is more materialistic in outlook (particularly gold), there is a certain family and generational aspect about coal mining that seems to transcend both time and cultures, This is most aptly displayed in gold miners rarely being unionised, but coal miners are nearly universally unionised.
     
  16. Off Shore

    Off Shore Off Topic Member

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    It was good money. People raised families for generations by working in coal mines. We're all afraid of change, but if we don't have much, we're even more afraid.
     
  17. Off Shore

    Off Shore Off Topic Member

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    Absolutely right, 3Victoria. Even when it's not lethal it's horrible work. When there's no money elsewhere, people will take that kind of work. And because of the fear of change, they won't want clean energy jobs until someone shows up at the mine gate with a job offer. (Which is something we ought to be doing, IMO).
     
  18. TMSE

    TMSE Member

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    Trump victory won’t halt the U.S. clean energy boom
    http://flip.it/NK3JMm

     
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  19. doggusfluffy

    doggusfluffy Closed

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    House of the rising solar
    WHITEHOUSE SLAMS TRUMP’S ENERGY TRANSITION TEAM: Donald Trump has given a “rotten signal” that he’ll follow through on his pledge to “drain the swamp” from special interests by adding lobbyists associated with the Koch Brothers to his transition team, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse said Tuesday. “Looks a bit like if Donald Trump doesn’t watch his back, the Koch brothers are going to be running his administration for him,” Whitehouse said. Specifically, the Rhode Island Democrat mentioned former Koch lobbyist Mike McKenna, handling the Energy Department transition; Myron Ebell, in charge of EPA transition work; and Michael Catanzaro, working on energy transition efforts.
     
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