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Some 2022 Model Ys shipping with MCU3 (AMD Ryzen)
- Thread starter darknavi
- Start date
I agree with everything you said--except possibly 2M cars next year, I'm guess more like 1.6 - 1.7. Current run rate is 1.2.. It's sort of immaterial if I get a high return for the first car and pay a high price for the second, or a low price for the first and low price for the second. Relatively speaking though the 'cost' for driving the car for a year or so won't be very high since I'm entering in the 'exchange' at such an advantageous place relative to the current price.FYI... I predict the exact opposite is going to happen and want to make sure I warn others. Think about it, why is a Tesla Model Y currently worth so much money used? Because of two reasons: 1) ALL used cars have jumped in value.. most used cars are now worth about 30% more than they were just a year or two ago. 2) Tesla has a year-long waiting list.. demand greatly exceeds supply.
Unless COVID shutdowns & mandates or the chip/component supply is expected to last forever.. then it means as soon as things get back to whatever normal is.. so will the prices of used cars. That includes every Tesla and the Model Y. Another thing to watch out for is the backlog of Model Y owners. Let's say right now Telsa has a backlog of 1Million orders and is quoting that it will take a year to build & deliver a freshly ordered Model Y. Guess what.. Tesla just delivered the most vehicles ever (at a production rate of 1.2M per year).. and they did that with only two factories open. What do you think is going to happen when Austin & Berlin are both open, at full production, and delivering even higher record numbers of cars? Tesla will probably be able to deliver upwards of 2M vehicles in 2022.. and as much as 5M in 2023.
Do you really think the price of a used Model Y is going to stay high over the next year or two? My guess is once that backlog is completely filled and people are able to order a brand new Model Y and have it delivered in less than two weeks.. or even better go to a Tesla showroom and immediately purchase a brand new Model Y sitting in inventory.. then the prices of used Model Y's will fall like a rock. They will go right back down to whatever normal depreciation rates are a typical mass-produced sedan or SUV. And that means about 20% depreciation the first year, 15% the second year, and 10% each year thereafter.
Granted you getting into a new Model Y at $53K is a great price now. But I would expect a year from now for that car to only be worth $45K. And most importantly, the price of a brand new Model Y will drop back down to about $49K. Because that's exactly what the price of a brand new Model Y was in March 2021 when demand was considered "normal", inventory was abundant and the wait for a new custom-ordered Model Y was only 2-3 weeks. The price of Teslas went up because demand was greater than supply. Expect the prices to come right down to normal once supply is equal or greater than demand.
Also dont be surprised to see the standard range Model Y come back on the menu in 2023. Will probably be RWD only, powered with LFP batteries, have about 250 miles of range, 0-60 in 6.0 seconds and starting price of $45K. Possibly even less. If Tesla sold a MYSR for $39,990 before.. the chances of them selling a base version RWD Model Y again in the low to mid $40's is going to be highly likely. Hell.. Tesla still sells the MYSR in China:
Tesla launches cheaper RWD Model Y in China
Tesla has launched the Model Y RWD Standard Range, a cheaper version of the electric SUV, in China. It looks...electrek.co
I do think there will be a premium for a while, expectations for Austin are only about $120K units for the full year. But I think you're 100% correct; I think the current price is artificially high based on lower production and expectations of a credit.
In the end it doesn't really matter to me because ultimately I want the full up version 2, but I also don't want to wait. However I really do think there will be relatively low cost to me buying a car now and then the next one sometime in 2023 because I have such a head start.
dealer told me they will have new model Y coming this weekend. I will go check it out 
sevusal
Member
correct. they dont have any new cars. I am doing a test drive on the new demo car next Monday once their will have in stock this weekend. will try to confirm on some of the discuss changes here.dealer told me they will have new model Y coming this weekend. I will go check it out
Got assigned a VIN today, it has the new 7SA prefix to the VIN, which may or may not mean anything. It's 354 and the SA said it's still in California and she thinks it's still in production. Who knows, we'll see! EDD is Jan 18 - 24, so it makes sense that maybe it's going through the line now and will pop out ready for delivery to the east coast in a day or so.
I'll update here whenever I know more, especially about the chip, glass, etc.
I'll update here whenever I know more, especially about the chip, glass, etc.
buddhafree
2022 MYP
There are rumors that retrofit will be available sometime this year.Took delivery 2 weeks ago and missed the AMD chip.
Makes me think to sell the car and order a new one.
Got assigned a VIN today which is also 7SA + 354. I have little hope of getting the AMD IMO... Will also update here once I know more!
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Data: MY LR delivered yesterday VIN NF344xxx - no new CPU or 12V battery
I took delivery of a MYLR 7SA 351 on 1/3, ordered from inventory on 12/31. It has single layer rear windows and the Intel MCU.
