You can't reach that conclusion. We don't have any confirmation that VIN corresponds with anything related to production. For all we know, they have a random number generator that - after the first 5 - determines the production order. My DS has told me several times that it is looking like I would be one of a handful delivered out of my service center by the end of the year (and hasn't said anything otherwise), and yet I've also been told by another person who was watching for me that it would be a miracle if that happened. I think it's going to be more than 100, but I think my original prediction of 314 is in jeopardy. I'm leaving on a road trip anyway on Dec 26 and won't be back until the first of the year, so I'm already preparing for pick-up in January.
My VIN 51X isn't even in "body in white" phase, so I sincerely doubt there will be 700 deliveries any time soon. I am hoping they can crack 50 Signatures by the year end.
Just got a VIN number assigned today. I'm only a production res. #1071 (non-sign. since summer 2012) but my VIN is in the low 100's (i.e. <150). Also, I'm in the midwest. Not sure if there's really a pattern for how the VIN's are assigned.
Hmmm. Maybe they are delivering VIN of those people 1st who were nice to Tesla on the forums. "Hmm, remember this guy. He said this few weeks ago. Yeah, send him to the end of the line". (Just joking guys. No intention to offend. Criticism is necessary for progress.)
That is big news and will probably not sit well with some Sigs..IIRC this happened with the S and was not received well by SigS holders..His profile shows a P90D
Interesting distinction. I don't think my wife or I necessarily need to drive one. We want to see one in person, sit in it, etc. We have a few specific worries about the car, especially about size and utility. So I'm perfectly happy to simply meet with one of the local Sig owners after they take delivery (working this out right now) and if we are happy with what we see, I'll order one. Reading along here I often think there are three slightly vague groups of buyers here. a) "I'll buy the car, fully loaded, I will have to make room in my six car garage, maybe I'll sell one of the Bentleys." I.e. people for whom $140k is something they spend without much concern. b) "I can afford this and pay cash, but that means I need to hold back on other purchases I had considered." I.e. people who are doing well, but $100k is a LOT of money to spend on anything. c) "This is a stretch, but I believe in Tesla / EVs / it's just such an amazing car, I think I can make the monthly payments work." I.e. people for who this is maybe more than they should pay for a car, but they are doing it anyway. I fall squarely in the middle category. So while this isn't breaking the bank, this is a significant purchase. My most expensive car before my first Model S was a Toyota Sienna in 2006 for $34k (we still have that one). Then a $75k Model S 60. And then a $115k P85D. So buying a replacement for the Sienna and paying 3-4x the price will mean that maybe some other things we looked at buying will have to wait. And because of this I want to make sure that this really does qualify as a replacement for both the Sienna and the Leaf.
Which is pitiful considering Elon told the world they'd be making several hundred a week in December.
That is actually quite shocking to me. I'll be honest that my first response was NO WAY. I wouldn't be surprised if P reservation holders from the first batch who ordered and confirmed right away got their car before Sig reservation holders who delayed their order (I know of quite a few Sig reservation holders who still haven't clicked "Order"), but if you got a VIN < 150 with a production reservation... that seems wrong. I'm sure that at least 6-800 Sigs ordered either right away or right after the reveal. I just find it very hard to believe that those people would have higher VINs / later delivery than you... - - - Updated - - - How do you get to this number? I was going to say "around 4-500"... My rationale? We have seen people as high as 650 be told that they'll get their car this year. My guess (based on comments here over the last three months and the ratios shown in the Model X Reservation tracker) is that about 2/3 - 3/4 of the Sig reservation holders ordered and confirmed within a few days of becoming eligible. So unless there are other weirdnesses (like we thought maybe with winter package, but that doesn't appear to be the case) that would delay some orders, that should get us 400-500 deliveries this year.
Bobby Does you Vin Number start with a P? Founders start with an F and Sigs with an S. Also how were you notified?
I'm a P90DL, fully loaded. If a production car gets delivered before my Signature car *again*, I'm going to organize a letter writing campaign to deliver a strongly-worded letter to Elon. Or something like that. Well, ok, I'm just not going to be happy. Then when my car is delivered, I'll forget about it. Except for that little nagging thing in my head that will piss me off when they do it to me again for Model 3. I'm resilient that way.
we have to remember that there are three sequences of vin numbers, Fxxxxx, Sxxxxx, Pxxxxx (the last six digits of the vin) when a a prodution person is reporting a vin of 150, that should be a P00150 vin. i am not sure if Tesla treats them as three separate sets of sequential numbers, or uses the a single sequence. Can folks with founders, signture and production post the last 5 of the last six digits? I.e. P0015x ??