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Some things never change

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by MurrayJimW, May 26, 2017.

  1. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    I noticed today the comparison chart posted by Tesla regarding Model 3 and Model S. I specifically noticed the delivery comparisons.

    The chart says "Currently in full production, Model S orders placed today are delivered in fewer than 30 days."

    Apparently this is a brand new development because my order placed on 04/03 entered production this morning. That's 53 days. Even if you subtract 7 days for the confirmation we're at 46 and I am most likely at least 3 weeks from delivery making it over double this promise.

    I'm excited mine's in production and it doesn't bother me that much, but I fear Tesla's continued over promising on almost everything will wear thin soon and lead to less goodwill from the public at large which can not be good for the company.
     
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  2. JHWJR

    JHWJR Member

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    What was the projected delivery schedule when YOU ordered?

    Having challenged the premise of the original post, I concede that I ordered in very late January, confirmed Feb. 1, and had an original delivery projection of "March-Early April," though that got changed after the 1 week retooling downtime and an EPA certification issue with 100D's. My delivery was moved to "May-Early June," with actual delivery on May 10.
     
  3. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    Late May/Early June.

    In fairness they didn't promise me 30 days, but they did imply worst case early June which isn't going to happen. I'm anxious for the car like everyone is when they order, but it's not a life/death thing to me. I just worry about unkept promises on Tesla's part and I'm not sure I believe they can consistently deliver in under 30 days. Perhaps I'm being unfair and this is indeed a new policy and they can actually accomplish it now. I hope so.
     
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  4. W84M3

    W84M3 Member

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    Exactly what @JHWJR said.

    The page does not exist in EU btw; so the projected delivery date is US based. As we on TMC well know, begin of each Q is for overseas orders and mid tot end Q is for US.

    So yes, if you order when this page came online, the projected delivery date seems correct....
     
  5. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    Agreed. My problem is that the projected delivery dates don't seem to be holding. Almost all the US orders for 100D's (at least on the spreadsheet) placed in April slipped out at least 3 weeks from the original projection making that bit of info worthless. All they really need to do is add the word "most" to that statement to give themselves some wiggle room.
     
  6. D.E.

    D.E. Member

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    The current S wasn't promised 30 days.

    I assume that 30 day order to delivery is a future goal and I would think that if they offer 30 days in the future, they have some plan to deliver on that offer. Still that plan is not in place today. We don't know that it will ever be in place, it is a bullet on a leaked slide and as far as I know, not yet officially adopted policy.

    I do understand the frustration of waiting. But that 30 days has not been promised, not yet, anyway. If it does become a policy and a promise, then it is fair to see if it is upheld. It doesn't seem fair to assume now that they will not be able to deliver on it later.

    My car came with an estimated delivery date range, not a guarantee, I assume that range is just a best guess. I think it is as accurate as the person making that best guess can make it. I assume that person looks at historical delivery times. If there arise nonpredicted production issues, transportation issues, or supply issues, then I think that guess won't be accurate. It doesn't mean it was an invalid guess with the information available at the time.

    When I ordered mine there was a week's delay between the deposit made and the order becoming final. It seemed a waste of a week to me. Then I actually did make a change, I dropped the cold weather package. So that delay wasn't a waste of time after all.

    Anyway, I await my car. If it is delayed, it is delayed. There'll be no anger on my part. It is human nature that a thwarted goal causes frustration and frustration causes anger. Anger makes one want to strike out. I'd like to think I can step back, understand the overall picture and avoid the frustration to anger part of it. I think my car will be an absolute jewel. I don't want to spoil that.

    In 6 months or a year it won't matter a whit whether it was delivered early, when estimated, or late. Right now, though, I agree each day is a long wait.
     
  7. JHWJR

    JHWJR Member

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    I let Tesla know that I was disappointed that my delivery date had been pushed back about 60 days. I let Tesla know that I was disappointed that I had a couple things I wanted to schedule that I could not in the absence of a firm delivery date or, you know, the actual car. I had a client coming to town, for instance, that I hoped to cart around in the new car.

    My DS let me know that he could not commit with certainty to any date. My DS let me know that he could not advise me when, with certainty, within the 2 week window currently projected, was most likely for delivery.

    He did, however, loan me a car for 3 days to amuse the client (and it went over very well by the way), and THAT was an accommodation that Tesla did not owe me in any way. I let my DS know how appreciative I was, and that I fully recognized that they were doing something for me that they had no obligation to do, and that I had no right to expect. It was over the top. And they seemed soooo happy that they could accommodate me.

    Projections and predictions are exactly that and no more. Absent more, they are not promises. At the time of ordering, tell them that you need it by a certain date or it's no deal. Then they can say "no deal." But you have to temper your expectations with a realization that the "salespeople" and Delivery Specialist have very little control over the timing of the delivery. There are just too many variables. They cannot give folks the certainty that some folks want.
     
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  8. whttiger25

    whttiger25 Member

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    My DES has rented me a car for the three weeks that were added on to my original projection of late may (now mid june). So I'm happy. Good customer service! It also happens to be my situation that I'm without a car, and this is my second Tesla, so that's probably part of it.
     
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  9. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    We're in the middle of a quarter, which means USA deliveries probably are slated for assembly. If it were in the beginning of the quarter, there would be an artificial month or two extra to wait. The worst possible time to order in USA is in the beginning of a quarter. Let's see, in your original post, you said .... let's see ... April 3rd!!!!! No wonder! That's the worst possible day for length of time to manufacture (same as 1st & 2nd of April because same workday of Monday (and to add insult to injury you'll probably be placed behind those ordering on the 1st and 2nd)). Your car won't even be slated for manufacture until at least May. It could be 90 days for you. If you go ahead and order in late May, or first week of June, it would be 2-3 weeks (especially if no transport delays). Late quarter such as last few weeks of quarter, it's a toss up between same quarter manufacture (super blinding fast) and being pushed 60-90 more days out.

    They batch it up this way to fill the shipping lanes with cars for overseas destinations. They want to load a whole ship and set it sailing rather than pay for it to rot in port with live loads of new cars rotting in salty sea air.

    When the Model 3 gets into full swing, they can fill ships faster, and will probably start to do that more often, and might have a faster period of swinging back and forth between overseas and domestic. (They'll intermix S, X, and 3.)
     
  10. SMAlset

    SMAlset Member

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    I thought it was interesting to read that the Model 3s are expect to ship first to the west coast and then progress eastward. Opposite direction from the MS/X pattern.
     
  11. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #11 Ulmo, May 28, 2017
    Last edited: May 28, 2017
    For birth of all new Tesla products across model lifetimes, they do near first (to fast regulatory & fast fix local), far last. Within smaller time slices of quarter years, it goes the opposite way: furthest first, nearest last (to deliver all same-quarter produced). In both cases, they're optimizing distance time for best return.

    (What you probably read was true both times but they didn't state which size of timeline they were looking at; both are true for all product lines and each depends on what timespan you're viewing, as I explained in last paragraph.)

    Everyone (stock market short false news writers, customers, etc.) complains that Tesla back-packs their deliveries each quarter (and to an extent, fiscal year (=calendar year)), which is true, and in answer, Tesla has stated they intend to stop this, but it is everyone's view that they have not yet been able to get out of this efficiency addiction. I think they will get more resolution with higher volume, and then that will even out. Meanwhile, you can't believe the number of stories from Wall Street that complain about low domestic monthly deliveries from Tesla when Tesla is trying to deliver 0 that month because of this periodic pattern, false news claiming sales have dropped off a cliff "finally, because of new competition!!!", when it's just the way Tesla schedules. One thing Tesla has done is try to leak domestics from end of quarter delivery to the next quarter just so the next quarter's first month's numbers don't show 0 for that month, causing this stupid story, but it never works, because it's just always some really artificially low number. And try as they might, the boats, trains, and trucks are already in their sine waves in the expected pattern, and you only fill a boat once per trip, and they cluster around this pattern anyway. Not until when the deliveries get much huger will I expect to see this even out.
     
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  12. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    It does exist show in EU country selections, by the way. And of course is misleading as heck, because most cars will not get even built in 30 days due to quarterly batching, let alone be delivered... But I would wager this is misleading in the U.S. as well, since first weeks of quarter are reserved for building international orders - unless that is somehow changing now... or demand is very low...
     
  13. tpham07

    tpham07 Member

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    I ordered in the first week of March and got my car in the first week of April. 30 days seems on point. But sure lets create a whole new thread with a misleading title. If you check the spreadsheet, some people who ordered in march took delivery in march as well.
     
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  14. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    Glad you had a good experience. Truly I am. This does not change the fact that I as well as most of the other 100D orders from late March through early April will wait up to 90 days for theirs. More annoying is that no one I am able to contact seems to have any idea about the production process. Folks on this board seem to have a much better handle on it than anyone I talked to at Tesla regarding the schedule. Every time I reached out to my DS I was told it would be in production next week including 1 day before it actually went into production. It's a boiler plate answer for them.

    Obviously I wouldn't drop that kind of money with a company I didn't want to do extremely well over the long term. I'm just pointing out a stumbling block for them and the hopes they'll get it under control in the near term especially since their new chart now states delivery under 30 days as fact.
     
  15. NikeWings

    NikeWings Active Member

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    When I ordered my S last year, I was mildly frustrated with what seemed like an eternal delay (before production). As it turned out, Tesla announced the refresh and I unknowingly benefitted from the delay. Had I chastised Tesla that my life was terribly disrupted because of them, and got an older look (or insert feature here) as a result, I'd have no one to blame but myself.

    Don't create bad karma by getting upset.......one never knows what Tesla is up to.
    Even 60 days for a custom made car is pretty cool.
     
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  16. outie

    outie Active Member

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    When I ordered my X back in July 2016, the estimated delivery was late September. Fast forward to august and early September 2016, ordered cars still had late September delivery in the US. So it's not unusual that you have to wait 2 months at the new quarter and 1 month for newer orders in May. Tesla produce cars for the US closer to quarter end.
     
  17. whttiger25

    whttiger25 Member

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    Maybe the delay is related to the 100d battery? Mine was ordered April 21 and it's looking like it'll be almost 2 months for me. However, as I said I'm not complaining as my DES has been awesome. I do get the concern about tesla overpromising, but I would ignore tesla's generic 30 day prediction (which at this point is just from a leaked internal document), and instead go with the prediction in the design studio when you order your car. If that date gets pushed too far past that you can try to extract something extra from your DES...I got a rental car...but I doubt there will be much to be gained if you have another vehicle. My situation was unique as I had totaled my previous tesla and was without a car, and I think I got some sympathy. I didn't even really ask for anything, it was just offered to me when I sounded disappointed about my date getting pushed back. Apparently word of my story got around inside tesla. I test drove a car out of the Walnut Creek branch (to see what coil suspension felt like) and when I told the person who was accompanying me why I was in the market, she said, "omg that was you?!?" :rolleyes:
     
  18. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    Screen Shot 2017-05-29 at 7.23.35 AM.png
    They actually posted the leaked document on their site Friday per an Elon tweet (see original link in post 1) which was what prompted me to question this in the first place.
     
  19. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    It might be a new program. If there is a good number of inventory cars out there, maybe they will promise to have you driving a Tesla within 30 days - and when your car comes in, the inventory car can be returned and replaced with the one you ordered.

    However, in California, you can definitely order right now and have it by end of June. A few early May confirmations have first week of June delivery dates in CA and WA. However, they should use "Confirmation Date" and not "Order Date" due to the enforced 7-day delay period in the USA (3 in Canada). A "Net New Order" is one that is confirmed. Hopefully, customer cars will be built ahead of planned inventory production going into end of quarter. But a lot of inventory just showed up on the aggregation site ev-cpo.com/classic the last few days. Meaning some customers either have to wait a few extra days as inventory is built or customer orders are slowing enough to blend-in inventory production at the current factory rate.
     
  20. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    This may be their plan, but not what they are saying at this point:

    Screen Shot 2017-05-29 at 7.36.20 AM.png

    Again, I am not bent out of shape about this. My continual replies are more because I feel somewhat attacked by several on here implying I am mistaken about what they have said here or offering reasons why my particular order SHOULD have taken longer than they told me it would. I wasn't promised 30 days when I ordered. I'm good on waiting for it and don't expect anything because of delays. I want them to take their time and deliver the awesome car I've waited so long to order. I've been waiting 5 years to actually order it and a delay doesn't change my positive feelings about the car or the company. I AM concerned about the way the company appears to over promise on a pretty regular basis and I'd really like to see them grow and become more conservative about the offers making sure they can actually deliver (no pun intended) on those promises before disappointing folks buying now. I am of the opinion that this appears like a guarantee from this point forward and I'm not sure they can fulfill this promise. Had I known this would genuinely offend so many folks I wouldn't have ever mentioned it.

    This board is FULL of awesome information for new and old buyers alike and I've not found a more informative place on almost any subject that compares.
     

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