Manned spaceflight. Or at least, manned spaceflight concept development.
Spy satellites don't need to return to earth.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Manned spaceflight. Or at least, manned spaceflight concept development.
Spy satellites don't need to return to earth.
OK, I pretty doubtful that's the actual reason since the X37 has no life support systems, but even if that were true, why not use an existing system rather than start a whole new program from scratch? If they aren't doing very secret missions, they're spending a lot on security needlessly.
Unless, of course, you think that manned spaceflight has to somehow involve wings?
It's demonstrating reusability without adding unnecessary life support complexity. Walk before run, as it were.
That's the same old paradigm that is the reason a lot of space technology is so stale and costs are so high. As spacex has shown, first principles engineering yields better results than engineer-by-analogy.
Or...It could also be as basic as the Air Force wanting to develop and maintain space technology/resources/talent, and the only way they know how to do anything is with a lot of money and high security. Don't conflate cost and apparent security with actual technical sensitivity.
Returning to earth can be efficient when wings are involved. But...best to develop the concept without the manned complexity.
Unless you think that things in space somehow need wings?
And the hits keep rolling along. This one is also huge!
SpaceX just got the okay from Congress that the government is okay with flight proven boosters.
House lawmakers endorse reusable rockets for military purposes
SpaceX just got the okay from Congress that the government is okay with flight proven boosters.
House lawmakers endorse reusable rockets for military purposes
It will be very interesting to see who wins these contracts. Pure guesswork, but I'll bet one contract goes to SpaceX and one goes to ULA. Other possibilities would be that SpaceX wins all the smaller satellites and ULA gets the big ones using Delta IV. It should be noted that Falcon Heavy has not been approved by the Air Force/NRO yet because it hasn't flown.
Air Force asks SpaceX, ULA to bid on a five-launch contract - SpaceNews.com
Air Force asks SpaceX, ULA to bid on a five-launch contract - SpaceNews.com
Here is an outstanding article on the history of the conflict between SpaceX and ULA:
How America’s two greatest rocket companies battled from the beginning – Ars Technica
How America’s two greatest rocket companies battled from the beginning – Ars Technica
YoungStranger
Member
Flightglobal analysis focussed on Arianespace vs SpaceX
ANALYSIS: Reusability just one factor in cutting launch costs
ANALYSIS: Reusability just one factor in cutting launch costs
Nikxice
Active Member
The article highlights SpaceX's evolving dominance and their competitive edge, useful for attracting more commercial launch customers. In a couple of recent stories published by the same author, he mentions Falcon 9 Block 5 and the 24 hour turnaround plan as though this is going to be modus operandi for SpaceX. There's no doubt that Elon is pushing to demonstrate this capability, possibly before the end of next year. Its success is probably not overly critical for the long term success of SpaceX. Exciting to prove the feasibility and it will generate tremendous publicity, however minus a constrained flight schedule, perhaps take more time to minimize the risks? To draw a parallel, a few years ago the two or three minute Tesla battery swap program was going to have an impact on the charging landscape. Stuff happens and maybe it was just a little ahead of its time. Now looking ahead to potentially regular quick turns within the Falcon 9 program, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
SpaceX uses some 3D printed parts, but not entire rockets. Specifically the SuperDraco engine is mostly 3D printed.
I've said it before, but it bears repeating: Estimates of 40-50 annual launches for spacex in 2018 are significantly out of touch with reality, to say nothing of comical numbers like 100-800. There simply aren't that many things to launch, and there won't be that many things to launch for many years. The equation is that basic, to the point where articles like the one quoted basically lose all cred for parroting without a dose of reality.
Like it or not, the industry that makes the things that get hucked into space does not have the agility or vision of Elon Musk. Everyone else has quarterly reports and shareholder expectations to manage; everyone else is holding onto capex/IRAD spending, scratching out what little profit there is in building space stuff while they wait for someone else to jump into the deep end of 2.0. And seeing the headwinds encountered by a 2.0 like OneWeb, some of them same-old same-old headwinds [not to mention the turbulence just under the surface for a number of 2.0s] doesn't improve the chances of a drunken group cannonball into the pool anytime soon.
Elon and his team are smart enough to understand and forecast industry demand for launchers. Even the spacex constellation--which is easily the largest proposed, by like half an order of magnitude--wont increase launcher demand by more than a couple dozen a year once they hit full production rates.
Where they're really going with all this buildup--an this isn't like a revelation or anything, which is why the article is so frustrating--is developing the technology and more importantly the price point to execute the massive logistical exercise know as 'Mars'.
That's fair, but the argument for the later leverages the former.
Certainly SpaceX is inflecting into the commercial leader over Arianespace and Khrunichev, and certainly that trend as the leader in launcher supply will continue years into the future. What's important though is a more pragmatic assessment of the launcher industry and its demand over those number of years and not explicitly not just extrapolating the acceleration of SpaceX over the last 5 years.
Slightly more pithy, there's not enough industry to disrupt, and the industry's sense of self preservation is very sensitive to putting suppliers out of business. Intelsat and SES, for instance, don't want to see any of the launchers or any of the primes go out of business--there's so few of us that it layers in serious risk to their business models.
And now it comes full circle:
SpaceX forces Air Force to revise launch mindset - SpaceNews.com
The Air Force is loving their SpaceX.
How does it go?
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
SpaceX forces Air Force to revise launch mindset - SpaceNews.com
The Air Force is loving their SpaceX.
How does it go?
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
From the article (short, worth reading):
“They have forced us — and I mean forced us — to get better, infinitely better, at what we do,” he said. “We are adopting commercial business practices and becom[ing] more efficient and more affordable.
“Working with them, we have been able to reduce our main launch footprint by 60 percent and reduce the cost of a single launch by over 50 percent,” he said. “Based on the autonomous flight safety system they developed with us they will help us get to 48 launches a year.”
Wow.
An op-ed piece from Tony Bruno:
Op-ed | Building on a successful record in space to meet the challenges ahead - SpaceNews.com
Op-ed | Building on a successful record in space to meet the challenges ahead - SpaceNews.com
"ULA’s years-long commitment to replacing our current vehicles with a next-generation, American launch system as soon as possible remains unchanged. The incredible capabilities our country has in orbit today are the product of a successful public-private partnership and a collective focus on mission success."
Or paraphrased....."ULA's momentary commitment (truly based only on the SpaceX gun pointed at our head, threatening our very survival) to finally innovate, using the Billions of dollars of R&D literally thrown at us annually by Senator Shelby will still not allow us to accomplish anything this decade, but sometime, er, America, Eagle, Apple Pie, Flag, Puppy wrapped in flag, where do we send the campaign contribution? When will John McCain die? Elon Musk is a Foreigner, therefore nothing he makes is American Made! Kerfuffle, kurfuffle, look over there! What is that!"
----- White Noise. ----
Similar threads
- Article
