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SpaceX could take 60% of global commercial launch market in 2018

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ecarfan

Well-Known Member
Moderator
See One Chart Shows How Much SpaceX Has Come to Dominate Rocket Launches

QUOTE:
SpaceX first achieved significant market share in 2013 with over 5 percent, back when Russia still dominated the launch market. SpaceX continued to grow and now the company projects 45 percent of global market share in 2017. Next year, SpaceX projects that it will be raking in an insane 60 percent or more of global market share for commercial launches.

"Prior to SpaceX entering the commercial space launch market with the Falcon 9 launch vehicle, the U.S. had effectively ceded this market to France and to Russia, and no U.S. company had launched a single commercial mission to GTO since 2009," Hughes said in his testimony. "SpaceX has brought this multi-billion dollar market back to the United States."

Indeed, back in 1998, the U.S. dominated global launches with 66 satellites launched that year. That number fell to zero by 2011. SpaceX was a massive part of bringing the U.S. back to launching satellites just a couple years later.
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Chart presented to the House Subcommittee on Space, Science and Technology by SpaceX vice president Tim Hughes
 
What SpaceX has accomplished in just 15 years, after starting in 2002 with a few guys in a room in Los Angeles, is unprecedented, and seems impossible. Of course the existing aerospace industry laughed at SpaceX for years. Now the industry is terrified. It is reasonable to forecast that within two or three years SpaceX will have over 95% of commercial launches. Their only competition may be Blue Origin, which at the moment is only theoretical competition since they have yet to achieve orbit. But they will get there in a few years, I’m sure.
 
Here is a wiki page of everything worldwide in 2017:
2017 in spaceflight - Wikipedia
The page looks at successes and failures in many different ways. As of today, there have been 71 orbital launches attempted around the world and 66 of them were successful. SpaceX is 16 of those. A lot those launches are for governments and cannot be picked up by a commercial entity. The chart that ecarfan posted focuses on the important metric of commercial launches. Keep in mind that commercial launches are usually booked years in advance. It is only this year that SpaceX has shown their real potential heading for 21 launches and introducing the Falcon Heavy as a new vehicle opening a new market of heavy lift capability.
 
What SpaceX has accomplished in just 15 years, after starting in 2002 with a few guys in a room in Los Angeles, is unprecedented, and seems impossible. Of course the existing aerospace industry laughed at SpaceX for years. Now the industry is terrified.

Reminds me of this quote from Mahatma Gandhi:

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
 
From that chart it looks like the biggest chunk of $ is coming out of the Russians' hide.
From the Vance book discussing the major impact on the launch industry if SpaceX perfects landing and re-usability:
"The list of people that would not mind if I was gone is growing," Musk said. "My family fears that the Russians will assassinate me".
 
The next launch provider to really feel the bite of SpaceX in the commercial market is ArianneSpace. They have been the primary commercial launch provider for years with production limitations allowing others, like Russia, to have a piece of the market. Once FH launches successfully then it will surpass the Arianne 5 for lift capability and F9 is already dominating the medium lift market. With launches being booked years in advance Arianne will see their market dry up significantly around 2020. ArianneSpace reacted to SpaceX and their response was the lower cost Arianne 6. The problem with Arianne 6 is that it is still not reusable and therefore will not be low enough in price to beat the Falcon 9 and FH. So Arianne needs to go back to the drawing board very quickly or lose everything by 2025.

Space launch market competition - Wikipedia
 
Yes... and SpaceX has now won. Except for Boeing, who is still fighting a bit, they mostly seemed to go right from laughing to losing.

Yes but they certainly aren’t pulling their punches. They have their proxies warning about a SpaceX monopoly. And claiming that they were funded by government handouts. It’s so ironic and hypocritical considering ULA was essentially a US government launch monopoly taking government handouts for years.
 
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Yes but they certainly aren’t pulling their punches. They have their proxies warning about a SpaceX monopoly. And claiming that they were funded by government handouts. It’s so ironic and hypocritical considering ULA was essentially a US government launch monopoly taking government handouts for years.
Agree. Talk about the Pot Calling the Kettle Black...
ULA deserves to exist as a second source, but their costs will go even higher if they don't keep doing regularly scheduled launches. If Blue Origin eventually develops to be as stable and capable as SpaceX is today, and ULA can't get their costs down, then I don't see why the government should keep supporting ULA at all. At that point it's purely a jobs program.