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The speculation on industry oriented news sites like "Space News" seems to be mostly yes. McGregor testing happens no matter what. So boosters will travel equally far for California or Florida.
The SAOCOM-1B launch of the Falcon 9 was visually stunning. I've gotten to watch most of the Falcon 9 launches from the Cape, and this polar trajectory was radically different, because it flew south-southeast off the pad. It's been 59 years since anybody has done that. From the dock at KARS Park on Merritt Island (a few miles due west of Landing Zone 1, which used to be SLC 13), you could watch the vehicle fly almost straight overhead. With binoculars, it was easy to watch staging near the zenith. The booster looked like it flew almost straight up -- into it's looping reentry profile. There were a few clouds, but you could visually see the cold thrusters firing, and the booster maneuvering throughout the process...all the way down to a beautiful touchdown at LZ1. The double sonic boom reached us just at touchdown. Launches have always been awe inspiring, but this was surely a "Top 20" experience from Merritt Island, watching The Cape.
I would imagine a DOD-type mission could be interested in VAFB over CCAFS, and--while perhaps an unlikely bounding condition--there's a lower mass capacity from CCAFS because of the slightly less efficient flight path. That's pretty much the upside for VAFB.
Kinda beating the drum I've been beating for years here, the issue is that there's simply no volume with ANY space payloads other than starlink right now, let alone polar payloads. Space stuff still costs a ton of money and as such still gets built in small quantities, and polar is a fraction of the small quantity of space stuff that gets built. AND, while polar (SSO) is most efficient for optical missions, as we've seen from the recent Skysat and Blacksky launches (and the Legion launch in a year or two or whenever it is) optical missions are starting to consider mid-inclinations. It turns out it really doesn't matter what happens above 70 degrees or so and most interesting targets are even lower than that. So...why not spend more time there...
All that sums up to the fact that its going to be pretty inefficient for SpaceX to maintain SLC4 in an operational state. I can see them putting it in hibernation until some TLA agency wants to pay for recommissioning.
Most of the commercial imaging companies sell to government agencies, but yeah there's also the super secret stuff out there too. Even so, its still the mid-lats where most of the interesting things happen, because that's where most people are. Plus mid-inclination passes are variable in local time, so a little harder for the nefarious actor to work around.
Note that there are still a few F9 launches on the books for VAFB--Another Sentinel and 2x Legions (on one rocket). It will be telling what happens with those launches--both should be well within CCAFS dogleg capability.
e-FTW
New electron smell
SpaceX just released this sped up video of the launch and landing following the booster throughout its journey.
e-FTW
New electron smell
The audio! I want the normal speed version!
Reminds me of such a video of a Space Shuttle Booster (with audio) for orbit to ocean. The sounds it made after burnout were otherworldly.
