SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - CRS-11 - LC-39A

[ecarfan]

A successful static fire test of the Falcon's 9 Merlin engines occurred just a couple of hours ago on Pad 39A

Yes, static fire apparently went well. There was a minor adverse side effect: a small brushfire near the pad, which was contained. There is a severe drought in central Florida and the vegetation is tinder dry! Static rocket test sparks wildfire near KSC, fire officials say

 

[Grendal]

Yes, static fire apparently went well. There was a minor adverse side effect: a small brushfire near the pad, which was contained. There is a severe drought in central Florida and the vegetation is tinder dry! Static rocket test sparks wildfire near KSC, fire officials say

Chaos theory and the difficulty of unintended consequences. Early this week there was a huge explosion near McGregor that had SpaceX enthusiasts freaked out that something important blew up. It ended up being a military test (explosion) on the nearby military base. It was a big bang. Everyone calmed down a couple hours later when they figured out it wasn't SpaceX blowing things up.

Back to the subject, there was an excellent article detailing all the various payloads going up for this mission:

Dragon SpX-11 Cargo Overview – Dragon SpX-11 | Spaceflight101

 

[bonnie]

As of this morning the weather is 70% go for launch time Thursday.

http://www.patrick.af.mil/Portals/1...t 1 June Launch.pdf?ver=2017-05-30-085939-333

 

[bxr140]

So how many years of 24 launches a year would it take to clear the manifest?

Not many. And they won't get to 24 for quite some time,
Not because of inability to supply but because of low demand for heavy lifts.

2016 was a slow year for geocomm awards and 2017 looks to be pretty terrible too...which means the next few years are going to be light on the launch end of geocomm contracts--which make up a big chunk of annual heavy lifts. So...low demand.

The rest of the the satellite manufacturing industry as a whole is also less progressive than Spacex, so we won't see a huge reduction in cycle time and increase in volume (which explicitly also needs to come with a reduction in price) quickly. It's happening, just slowly [by spacex standards]. No huge increase in heavy lift demand there either.

Once the big LEO constellation sector gets some momentum we'll start seeing large quantities of small spacecraft hucked up on big rockets, offsetting then ultimately surpassing (by a wide margin, methinks) the volume of geocomm launches. That's good for heavy lift demand. Eventually the demand for geo assets will go down because the Leo constellations will be able to do a lot of the missions at a likely cheaper cost, so that will decrease demand some.

Finally, it will be interesting to see how aggregating a heavy launcher (like, what Spaceflight is doing) compares to the new small lift startups like rocket labs. Dedicated rides on your own schedule are always preferred...but if the cost of a ride on an aggregated heavy vehicle is attractive enough, that could be a decent incrase in overall demand.

 

[dhanson865]

Not many. And they won't get to 24 for quite some time,
Not because of inability to supply but because of low demand for heavy lifts.

They have 56 flights on the public manifest and 76+ flights if you cobble together known future flights beyond the manifest cutoff date.

If you don't think they'll hit 24 a year you'd have to assume it will take them more than 2 years to clear the manifest backlog.

Or do you think the 56 flights already contracted will just get canceled?

 

[bxr140]

If you don't think they'll hit 24 a year you'd have to assume it will take them more than 2 years to clear the manifest backlog.

That's reality. Globally, spacecraft manufacturers just can't build that fast [yet].

Globally, 24 launches/year is way closer to the total annual heavy lift volume than one vehicle's manifest.

 

[Mike1080i]

Launch Webcast link is up...

 

[AudubonB]

The prior ISS re-supply missions certainly were nice, but this one is definitely NICER.

 

[Grendal]

I just read on SpaceX's press kit for this mission that this will be the 100th launch from LC-39A.

If the launch is aborted then the backup launch window is on Saturday, June 3 at 5:07 p.m. EDT.

Here is the:

Mission Timeline (all times approximate)

COUNTDOWN

Hour/Min/Sec Events

- 01:18:00 Launch Conductor takes launch readiness poll

- 01:10:00 RP-1 (rocket grade kerosene) loading underway

- 00:45:00 LOX (liquid oxygen) loading underway

- 00:07:00 Falcon 9 begins engine chill prior to launch

- 00:07:00 Dragon to internal power

- 00:02:00 Range Control Officer (USAF) verifies range is go for 1st stage return

- 00:01:30 SpaceX Launch Director verifies go for launch

- 00:01:00 Command flight computer to begin final prelaunch checks

- 00:01:00 Propellant tank pressurization to flight pressure begins

- 00:00:03 Engine controller commands engine ignition sequence to start

00:00:00 Falcon 9 liftoff (Which is an instantaneous launch window at 17:55 EDT)

LAUNCH, LANDING AND DRAGON DEPLOYMENT

Hour/Min/Sec Events

00:01:18 Max Q (moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket)

00:02:22 1st stage main engine cutoff (MECO)

00:02:25 1st and 2nd stages separate

00:02:32 2nd stage engine starts

00:02:38 1st stage boostback burn begins

00:06:10 1st stage entry burn begins

00:07:27 1st stage landing

00:09:20 2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO)

00:10:20 Dragon separates from 2nd stage

00:12:00 Dragon’s solar arrays deploy

02:20:00 Dragon’s Guidance, Navigation and Control bay door opens

And lastly here is a link to the pre-launch NASA conference:

SpaceX CRS-11 - Prelaunch News Conference

 

[macpacheco]

So how many years of 24 launches a year would it take to clear the manifest? There are 56 flights listed on Launch Manifest | SpaceX including CRS11. But that doesn't even count any new demand that will open up as prices drop and/or availability of flights increase (reducing time delays).

So I think it's safe to say that we are more than 2 years away from catching up to demand even if a >24 launches per year rate is achieved.

Ms Gwynne Shotwell has stated they aim that within 2017 SpaceX will be launching everything customers are ready to launch, hence the backlog is normalized. Even if that goal isn't fully met, likely early 2018 this will happen.
With LC39A and LC40 both fully operational, and customers willing to do reflights, SpaceX should be able to launch at least twice as fast as the current manifest calls for.
The bottleneck already is building new boosters rather than enough launchpads. But with more customers switching to reflights a single pad in FL can become the bottleneck.

How long it will take to clear the current manifest isn't exactly important as the vast majority of manifested missions don't have payloads ready even within the next 6 months. Customers sign up as far as 3+ years ahead.

 

[Chuq]

Approximately 12 hours from now, for those having timezone conversion issues!

 

[jkn]

Approximately 12 hours from now, for those having timezone conversion issues!

Thank you!

 

[Bgarret]

Our own @bonnie (twitter @bonnienorman) is live tweeting the launch as part of NASA's civilian social media group.

Way to go, Bonnie! #represent

 

[bonnie]

Our own @bonnie (twitter @bonnienorman) is live tweeting the launch as part of NASA's civilian social media group.

Way to go, Bonnie! #represent

Thanks for the shout out. We're all overwhelmed by how much we're seeing up close.
This morning was 39A launchpad and then over to the Space Station processing center where everything that goes on Dragon is processed. The scientists were kind enough to show us through their labs.
On a break now, heading back in an hour to meet the Acting Director, Robert Lightfoot, before the launch.

 

[bonnie]

Be sure to check out the posts from the group I'm with on twitter

Noe of us are getting everything - we all take turns just stopping and experiencing

@NASAsocial

 

[sandpiper]

Thanks for the shout out. We're all overwhelmed by how much we're seeing up close.
This morning was 39A launchpad and then over to the Space Station processing center where everything that goes on Dragan is processed. The scientists were kind enough to show us through their labs.
On a break now, heading back in an hour to meet the Acting Director, Robert Lightfoot, before the launch.

We need an emoticon for "MASSIVELY JEALOUS!".

 

[Mike1080i]

Technical Webcast is BACK for CRS-11 !

Also linking the NASA-TV Public and Media streams in case anyone might be interested.

 

[bonnie]

Just got word that the entire site is 'under a phase 2', meaning sensors are picking up increased electrical activity and IF you're outside, you're likely to be hit. Hopefully it will clear up before the launch time.

 

[Mike1080i]

SCRUB due to lightning rules, 48 Hour turnaround.
Launch time Saturday is 5:07 pm ET

 

[Grendal]

The weather on Saturday is supposed to be worse than today.