GEO sats cannot compete with LEO sats for interactive Internet links (because of both latency and bandwidth). No other LEO can compete with SpaceX on price (since SpaceX alone has reusability). 5G isn’t a thing in rural. So I like SpaceX’s chances of capturing a huge amount of the market.
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Correction: Millions, not thousands!
Over the next decade, the terrestrial Internet service providers may want to focus on upgrading and servicing their most profitable, most densely populated territories. Meanwhile, Starlink can take over the market for Internet access in rural and exurban areas.
Our semi-rural service area, and a great many others, are sort of the neglected stepchildren of the cable companies. Here, I don't think the cable company will ever provide service on par with what people expect in large, wealthy cities. It's just too costly relative to the customer density. Meanwhile, Starlink is ideally suited for the millions of Americans, and many others, who aren't in dense areas.
In the 2020s, solar, storage, Starlink, and remote work are going to be great equalizers for rural areas. Cities can be great, but not everyone prefers urban life.
Sure they can. You can get 100mbps today from Viasat; as they (and all the others) put up more capacity and users start migrating to Starlink, more and more GEO users will have access to more and more bandwidth. Then, as we've talked about many times before, latency matters to some customers, latency doesn't matter for most customers. Nobody cares if their Netflix comes in a quarter second late.
Sure they can. Viasat 3 is, give or take, $500M with a 15 year service life + some opex. At $100/month for service, that sat probably ROIs at ~30k customers. That's 30k customers out of 8.4M in the US. If you’re a beancounter that’s a LOT of headroom.
You forgot the part about total bandwidth capacity. Have you ever used satellite Internet? You get maybe 2 Mbps bandwidth at peak times. With 600 ms latency. It doesn't work for Netflix. It doesn't work for well for web browsing. The only time you'll see 100Mbps from Viasat is at 4am...
I think we just need to agree to disagree.
Sure. If you have crappy service to start and exceeded your data cap, or you're one of the very few who live in a very unfavorable corner case location with a high density of users and want to stream HD during one of the out of family peak hours in the year. Nobody ever said GEO internet was for everyone.
For those who haven't use satellite internet: Its kinda like dealing with the inconvenience of crappy mobile/wifi service when you're in a large stadium or otherwise very populated place. (At least, when that used to be a thing) Its annoying but, as long as you pay your bill, very infrequent. Unless you go with the cheap service with crappy coverage, in which case you're annoyed all the time.
Beating the horse a bit here, but it bears repeating: GEO satellite service isn't for everyone. Many current GEO customers are going to transfer to starlink and never look back. BUT, Starlink isn't going to kill GEO service, and that's assuming GEO maintains its conservative, heritage heavy, reliability forward approach to infrastructure.
I'm not sure why this is so hard to accept. Starlink isn't going to completely steal the satellite internet market, or anywhere close. Period.
And the same user would have the same "the only time you'll see" timeframe with Starlink. Of course, some GEO internet customers see MORE than their service mbps, even at peak times. And the great news is that, again, the same user would have the same experience with Starlink.
Has anyone transacted with or knows about these various companies who offer private equity transactions?
Forge Global (Founded by Peter Thiel)
EquityZen
Forge Global (Founded by Peter Thiel)
EquityZen
CLK350
Member
I created a Forge account, there is an entry for a SpaceX description - BUT trying the "Trade" button no SpaceX choice came up, which seemed to imply nobody who owns shares has offered them on that platform.
I recall seeing something about a SpaceX company internal market for shareholders, which would make sense - if anyone has more info that would be swell. I also saw ( forgot if on Twitter or more likely YouTube ) that someone had figured out a way, soliciting commitments for an investment vehicle ..
chiller
Member
How does the accredited investors stuff work for foreigners? Are they exempt or do we need to prove it in some way or another?
Xepa777
Banned
You can't invest in SpaceX if you're a foreigner. National security reasons. Beyond that for other companies (like the Boring Company) I think it's fine as long as you meet income requirements.
You would need to place a bid above current valuation for anyone to be interested. Then you wait.
Better idea is to wait for the next funding round and be aggressive. Yes, you need to be an AI. I do not believe they are bothering with amounts of less than 250k and if demand is high they will go with 500k.
While SpaceX may well be a trillion dollar company one day, it is worth noting that they have a rich valuation now and that the platforms we are discussing have high fees and are essentially illiquid. You would probably need at least three months time to cash out.
www.sharespost.com has very recently helped facilitate indirect investments into SpaceX via Funds setup solely to buy/hold SpaceX shares. Of all private companies Sharespost transacts in, these opportunities to indirectly invest in SpaceX are by far their highest demand and come and go quickly (e.g. must be prepared to act very quickly on paperwork and funding when opportunity comes up).
While these opportunities do come up occasionally with SharesPost, because it is in such high demand(relative to supply) their fees are non-negotiable (e.g. 5% commission) and the minimums are typically much higher if you want a realistic opportunity to get a piece (e.g. $1mm or more I would say is realistic).
Can do this individually, or some people will have their own LLC setup with a group of 10 friends for example who each put in $100k to make it $1mm in total and then use that LLC to invest the $1mm via Sharespost for example.
PM me if interested given above and I can make an intro to my senior contact at Sharespost so they can keep you in the loop for if/when they see next opportunity come up.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Much as I would love to invest in SpaceX, I can't see giving that kind of money to (as Elon might put it) those barnacles. I'll pass for now.
Nobody imagined that tesla would become the behemoth it is now when we first saw the old roadster.
Nobody imagined it adding several billion dollar verticals like stationary storage, solar tiles, FSD, tesla network, etc.
Nobody imagined that because we have normal brains that can just think normally: "I don't think he'll sell many of these cars because they break down a lot and have only 2 seats."
We have always underestimated the potential revenue streams that Elon can discover and master. This company is his main focus, and I cannot stress this enough. He will put everything he has into it, and he will make it the biggest thing that has ever existed.
Any other attempt at space will be ridiculed by comparison. He will crush it more than all the other million times he crushed it.
He's not interested in low-revenue, small TAM things. Its only about the very big picture for him. And space x will be the biggest of them all. Not because it has big potential, but because its his main focus.
NEVER. UNDERESTIMATE. ELON...especially on the thing closest to his heart.
Was going to put this in the rising tide thread but I figured it would be more applicable here:
While not really too much new news from this internal fluff piece, there's confirmation in there on Kuiper's service model (basically, directly competing with Starlink) and a link to job postings at the bottom which is interesting to flip through. Curiously, some postings have been open since last year...though its hard to say what Amazon's hiring strategy has been lately. As it were, 2020 has been a little weird.
The good news for Starlink is that Kuiper is basically being run by all the folks Elon fired from Starlink a few years ago (2017?), so there's a bit of B-team--or at least, not Elon's A-Team--happening. The bad news for Starlink is that Kuiper is basically right next door and by all accounts the engineering working environment at Amazon is much more accommodating.
While not really too much new news from this internal fluff piece, there's confirmation in there on Kuiper's service model (basically, directly competing with Starlink) and a link to job postings at the bottom which is interesting to flip through. Curiously, some postings have been open since last year...though its hard to say what Amazon's hiring strategy has been lately. As it were, 2020 has been a little weird.
The good news for Starlink is that Kuiper is basically being run by all the folks Elon fired from Starlink a few years ago (2017?), so there's a bit of B-team--or at least, not Elon's A-Team--happening. The bad news for Starlink is that Kuiper is basically right next door and by all accounts the engineering working environment at Amazon is much more accommodating.
Sure. He's clearly a visionary and a genius with few (if any?) peers, past or present. Flip side, presenting an 'analysis' that's heavy on hopes and dreams and light on fact and reason in a thread about investment is a little bit underwhelming, especially when fact and reason pretty squarely caps much of the bullish case.
I agree that what one is really doing with TSLA and SpaceX is investing in Elon. (I'm long TSLA, FYI) And as with any investment, it is important to understand what one is investing in...
If should also be prefaced that, to a significant degree, the history of progress is one of nothing-new-under-the-sun. Tesla and SpaceX are perfect examples of this: Electric cars, self driving cars, reusable rockets, big ass rockets, satellite internet, battery storage, solar power...none of these are new concepts. Elon's real strength has been his ability to identify high value and plausible concepts (Including those that have floundered/failed in the hands of others) and then move the practical technical and commercial roadblocks out of the way.
To that end, contrary to your supposition that "nobody imagined...", people did indeed imagine...and we would be remiss to not imagine now. We might not be able to understand how to move the roadblocks but we can certainly identify them. We might not be able to fully quantify the opportunity, but we can certainly pass logical judgement on bounding cases, timelines, etc.
I'll take recent Tweets for 100, Alex.
The answer "This seems increasingly likely"
What was Elon response to:
"Amazing @SpaceX shots of the 1st test vehicle hop for Starship — the 1st fully-reusable launch system. The radical difference in cost is perhaps best understood with flights on Earth: 30 minutes to fly between continents, at a lower cost than taking an airplane, in coach class." ?
Twitter
The answer "This seems increasingly likely"
What was Elon response to:
"Amazing @SpaceX shots of the 1st test vehicle hop for Starship — the 1st fully-reusable launch system. The radical difference in cost is perhaps best understood with flights on Earth: 30 minutes to fly between continents, at a lower cost than taking an airplane, in coach class." ?
In terms of Starlink costs (specifically launch)...
"SpaceX says they have over 100 rideshare payloads, they're the cheapest option out there now."
Twitter
"SpaceX says they have over 100 rideshare payloads, they're the cheapest option out there now."
Just when I thought there was no more news:
"ULA will get 60 percent of Air Force Contracts over the next five years. SpaceX will get 40 percent. Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman are left out."
Twitter
"ULA will get 60 percent of Air Force Contracts over the next five years. SpaceX will get 40 percent. Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman are left out."
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