Wiki SpaceX Manifest and Launch Cadence

[SageBrush]

When viewed in order of deployment it certainly provides evidence of A Shortfall of Gravitas. Thus I suspect we'll not see any more droneships in the foreseeable future.

Please explain

 

[jbcarioca]

Please explain

A Shortfall of Gravitas – Spaceflight Now
Logically, I hope, it seemed to me that one primary impediment to faster launch sequence was the practical pace of first sta ge recoveries. Thus, adding this one should allow A higher recovery capacity, therefore probably reducing launch costs and permitting faster placement for refurbishment. Once Mr. Stevens can function as planned for fairing recovery we’ll probably see about two more of those ships too.

Possibly there will be others as well, since these ships are crucial components of launch cost reduction through reusability.

 

[Grendal]

SpaceX will not likely beat 30 launches for 2018. Somewhere around 24 or 25 seems likely. As of this moment, there are six Block 5 cores completed with only B1051 having the upgraded COPVs that NASA demands for Commercial Crew. The seventh B5 booster is due to appear sometime soon and SpaceX will likely have 10 altogether before the end of the year. I fully expect to see a third launch of the same booster before the end of the year with B1046 being the most likely candidate. One of the upcoming boosters will need to be the B5 FH center core for there to be another FH launch this year (Arabsat).

There are nine older launched SpaceX boosters sitting around with one (Orbcomm 2) officially and permanently on display at SpaceX's Hawthorne factory. Two more have been given to NASA and Cape Canaveral for future display. That leaves six more just sitting around awaiting use in some form or another.

cores - spacex

Edit: It looks like the Commercial Crew delay cut into the number of launches for this year. Likely it will end up at 22. About half of those used previously flown boosters. My guess of 10 Block 5 cores is very likely going to be accurate. They have nine now with 2 1/2 months to go. SpaceX will have launched the same booster for the third time next month, likely the first B5 booster B1046.

 

[Grendal]

SpaceX's Falcon Heavy manifest:
- Arabsat 6A (NET early 2019)
- STP-2 (NET 2019)
- AFSPC-52 (NET September 2020)
- Ovzon (NET Q4 2020)

Pending confirmed payloads: - Viasat - Inmarsat
Michael Baylor on Twitter

 

[Grendal]

Here's a great article on the conclusion of the 2018 launch year for SpaceX:
SpaceX lines up five launches to close out 2018 – NASASpaceFlight.com

 

[Grendal]

How about a historical comparison:

 

[ecarfan]

I can’t view the image in your post.

How about a historical comparison:

 

[Grendal]

I can’t view the image in your post.

Odd. I got the picture through Eric Berger's twitter which pulled I from here:
The space race is dominated by new contenders

 

[ecarfan]

Here’s screen captures of two of the graphics in that article. Very nicely done. I recommend reading the article to understand these graphics better. The space race is dominated by new contenders

 

[ecarfan]

The second graphic I posted shows how rapidly SpaceX has increased its launch cadence in the past 10 years, and how ULA and Arianespace have shrunk, as has Russia. China is increasing its launches.

 

[Grendal]

As of the CRS-18 launch.

 

[Electroman]

Most confusing graphic.. really hard to understand at the first glance..

 

[ecarfan]

Most confusing graphic.. really hard to understand at the first glance..

Maybe, but impressive stats record keeping! I read every line and loved it.

 

[Grendal]

As of this date, SpaceX has a stable of 6 Block 5 F9 boosters to use and reuse. There are also the two B5 side boosters available for a FH but no center core at this time.

The six current F9 boosters have the following number of launches behind them:
B1048 - 4
B1049 - 4
B1051 - 3 (will launch for the 4th time very soon)
B1056 - 3
B1058 - 0 (DM-2 booster)
B1059 - 1

The FH boosters have both flown for 2 missions.

 

[mongo]

SpaceX is planning on 38 launches this year, 64 the following two year, and 70 a year after that!
10 FH a year starting in 2021.
From recent FAA submittal linked to here:
nextspaceflight on Twitter

 

[ecarfan]

Wow. And 10 FH launches a year? That will be mind blowing!

 

[mongo]

Wow. And 10 FH launches a year? That will be mind blowing!

Yah, although it may just be the optimistic best case scenario so they don't need approval later.

Theoretically, Superheavy/ Starship will replace FH launches due to lower cost.

 

[Grendal]

SpaceX is planning on 38 launches this year, 64 the following two year, and 70 a year after that!
10 FH a year starting in 2021.
From recent FAA submittal linked to here:
nextspaceflight on Twitter

View attachment 515965

That is weird. SpaceX had 21 launches in 2018, not 15, 2017 was 18 launches, and 6 for 2015.

 

[favo]

That is weird. SpaceX had 21 launches in 2018, not 15, 2017 was 18 launches, and 6 for 2015.

That chart doesn't show Vandenberg AFB launches (2 in 2019, 6 in 2018, 5 in 2017).

 

[Grendal]

At this moment SpaceX has only five boosters available for standard launches:

B1049
B1051
B1058
B1059
B1060 - spoken for until recovered

All except for one (B1058 May 30th) will be launched this month June 2020 - weather permitting. The shortest turnaround time for a Block 5 booster has been 2 months. Sadly, the loss of two boosters in landings earlier this year may cause some delays in upcoming Starlink launches.