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The second Block 5 booster (B1047) was seen leaving the factory for McGregor on March 19th. So SpaceX has ramped up production. Elon had an interesting response to a question on Instagram.
So Elon has brought back his desire to have a 24 hour turnaround with the Block 5 booster.
So Elon has brought back his desire to have a 24 hour turnaround with the Block 5 booster.
24 hour reuse of an orbital class rocket. Mind. Blown.
Here is a really well done article on the history of the F9 and the design iterations:
Falcon 9’s History Explained – The Specific Design Changes that Led to a Rapidly Reusable Rocket
Falcon 9’s History Explained – The Specific Design Changes that Led to a Rapidly Reusable Rocket
Awesome article. Constant improvement. And now SpaceX is applying those lessons learned to BFR.
There was an interesting passage in one of the new Space Billionaires or Barons books where Elon and Bezos had a cordial dinner. They got deep into a conversation about engine technology. At one point Elon told Bezos, "Oh yeah, we tried that approach but it was a dead end, don't bother with it". Supposedly Bezos didn't listen and wanted to figure it out on their own. Fair enough. But it highlighted for me just how slow even the other startups are in comparison with SpaceX. ULA is stuck at the starting gate, of course, but even the other startups move slow.
What's the difference? Elon, of course, but there is something even bigger happening.
Both Bezos and Elon have big ambitions. Bezos wants a lunar colony, Musk a Martian one. Musk started off with $100M, Bezos with $1B. And THAT was the big difference that set SpaceX apart from everyone else.
Money makes you, well not the cliche "stupid" but it does make you lazy. With a $1B and growing to spend, Bezos could afford to take his time. Just like ULA and their cost plus contracts, there is no need to go fast. No need to anything you don't "want" to do. Honestly, having run a company or two, the worse part about companies is employees and customers
If you could have a company with a minimum of both, that would be nirvana, and that's what Bezos has chosen to do.Elon didn't have much money. He HAD to move fast, and, most importantly, start making money from launches so that he could continue working towards his very ambitious goals. SpaceX is now a pretty large company, but only because they have lots and lots of paying customers. The pressure of having to satisfy a $12B(!) order book of backlogs is HUGE. SpaceX has had the "luxury" of 50+ orbital customer launches to iterate their design over.
The tables are now reversed. SpaceX spends a lot more money than Bezos and Blue Origin does because they have a constant stream of paying customers.
Since we just had the final Block 4 booster launched, I just collated the statistical data on the Block 3 and Block 4 class of F9's.
Block 3
11 boosters built
16 successful launches
6 boosters reused
3 boosters expended for heavy GTO missions (old FH missions)
1 failed recovery
1 loss before launch
3 cores retired and stored
Block 4 (assuming remaining 2nd launches are successful)
7 boosters built
13 launches
6 boosters reused (4 are still pending and 3 of those are planned)
1 booster expended for heavy GTO mission (old FH mission)
Block 3
11 boosters built
16 successful launches
6 boosters reused
3 boosters expended for heavy GTO missions (old FH missions)
1 failed recovery
1 loss before launch
3 cores retired and stored
Block 4 (assuming remaining 2nd launches are successful)
7 boosters built
13 launches
6 boosters reused (4 are still pending and 3 of those are planned)
1 booster expended for heavy GTO mission (old FH mission)
Great article from Eric Berger of Ars Technica:
Block 5 rocket launch marks the end of the beginning for SpaceX
Block 5 rocket launch marks the end of the beginning for SpaceX
Elon: Falcon 9 Block 5 rolling out to the launch pad.
Elon Musk on Instagram: “Falcon 9 Block 5 rolling out to the launch pad”
Elon Musk on Instagram: “Falcon 9 Block 5 rolling out to the launch pad”
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In the Bangbhadhu launch thread @Grendal posted a link to a transcript of Elon’s phone call press conference where he offered a lot of information about the Block 5. See Block 5 Phone Presser
Here is a summary of what he said regarding Block 5:
Goal is zero maintenance required after the first 10 launches, then some “scheduled maintenance”, and capable of “on the order of at least 100 flights before being retired. Maybe more.” And to have “30 to 50” F9 Block 5 vehicles “in rotation”, so I assume that would be the total number that would be built and used before they are all retired because the BFR will be flying regularly.
“...intend to demonstrate two orbital launches of the same Block 5 vehicle within 24 hours no later than next year.”
New landing leg design for easy retraction after landing using an “actuator”, saves many hours of labor.
“The Merlin engine thrust is going to increase by approximately 8%, to 190,000 pounds of thrust at sea level. We think there's probably a little more room there, maybe going up to 10% or so. “
“The vacuum version of Merlin increased in thrust by about 5%... to 220,000 pounds-force.”
Another new feature that adds to reusability: “...new thermal protection technology...the black interstage, that is, the structure that joins the upper and lower stage, as well as the raceways and landing legs, they all use a new thermal protection material we developed at SpaceX, which is intended to be highly reusable, and does not require paint. It's considerably hydrophobic and does not trap water.”
“...much stronger octaweb structure. It's made of a much higher strength of bolted aluminum.” I assume the “bolted” design allows for easier replacement of individual engines if needed.
“We are [???] consistently with the titanium grid fins and have now moved away completely from the aluminum grid fins”.
He talked about something else that is very exciting though not specifically related to Block 5: “I'm quite confident that we'll be able to achieve full reusability of the upper stage. In fact, I'm certain we can achieve full reusability of the upper stage, the question is simply what the mass penalty is.” I don’t see how SpaceX is going to accomplish that incredible feat, but apparently Elon feels it is possible. It’s incredible because the 2nd stage re-enters the atmosphere at a much higher speed than the booster stage does since it’s re-entering after achieving orbit so it will experience much greater heating and stress, and it only has one engine that will have to do all the necessary burns, an engine that is optimized for vacuum.
“...we may be able to get down to a marginal cost for a Falcon 9 launch down, fully considered, down under five or six million dollars.” In world of orbital launches, that’s practically pocket change!
And I loved this response to a question from a Florida Today journalist, quote:
“We really want SpaceX to be a forcing function for improving, dramatically improving space technology to the point that it enables humanity to become a multi-planet species. Get out there and have a base on the moon and Mars, and ultimately even on the outer planets. To really expand the scope and scale of consciousness, and make sure that in the hopefully unlikely event of something happening here on Earth that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. Which is I think an extremely important thing to secure. I mean it's not going to matter to me, I'll be long dead, nor is it any kind of picnic to go out there and establish self-sustaining bases on places not on Earth. It's dangerous. People are going to die. It's going to be difficult. Very few people will want to take on this dangerous hard work. But I think it's important for the future of humanity, and for also preserving life as we know it on Earth. Because we are life's agency, and have some responsibility, as life's agency”.
Here is a summary of what he said regarding Block 5:
Goal is zero maintenance required after the first 10 launches, then some “scheduled maintenance”, and capable of “on the order of at least 100 flights before being retired. Maybe more.” And to have “30 to 50” F9 Block 5 vehicles “in rotation”, so I assume that would be the total number that would be built and used before they are all retired because the BFR will be flying regularly.
“...intend to demonstrate two orbital launches of the same Block 5 vehicle within 24 hours no later than next year.”
New landing leg design for easy retraction after landing using an “actuator”, saves many hours of labor.
“The Merlin engine thrust is going to increase by approximately 8%, to 190,000 pounds of thrust at sea level. We think there's probably a little more room there, maybe going up to 10% or so. “
“The vacuum version of Merlin increased in thrust by about 5%... to 220,000 pounds-force.”
Another new feature that adds to reusability: “...new thermal protection technology...the black interstage, that is, the structure that joins the upper and lower stage, as well as the raceways and landing legs, they all use a new thermal protection material we developed at SpaceX, which is intended to be highly reusable, and does not require paint. It's considerably hydrophobic and does not trap water.”
“...much stronger octaweb structure. It's made of a much higher strength of bolted aluminum.” I assume the “bolted” design allows for easier replacement of individual engines if needed.
“We are [???] consistently with the titanium grid fins and have now moved away completely from the aluminum grid fins”.
He talked about something else that is very exciting though not specifically related to Block 5: “I'm quite confident that we'll be able to achieve full reusability of the upper stage. In fact, I'm certain we can achieve full reusability of the upper stage, the question is simply what the mass penalty is.” I don’t see how SpaceX is going to accomplish that incredible feat, but apparently Elon feels it is possible. It’s incredible because the 2nd stage re-enters the atmosphere at a much higher speed than the booster stage does since it’s re-entering after achieving orbit so it will experience much greater heating and stress, and it only has one engine that will have to do all the necessary burns, an engine that is optimized for vacuum.
“...we may be able to get down to a marginal cost for a Falcon 9 launch down, fully considered, down under five or six million dollars.” In world of orbital launches, that’s practically pocket change!
And I loved this response to a question from a Florida Today journalist, quote:
“We really want SpaceX to be a forcing function for improving, dramatically improving space technology to the point that it enables humanity to become a multi-planet species. Get out there and have a base on the moon and Mars, and ultimately even on the outer planets. To really expand the scope and scale of consciousness, and make sure that in the hopefully unlikely event of something happening here on Earth that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. Which is I think an extremely important thing to secure. I mean it's not going to matter to me, I'll be long dead, nor is it any kind of picnic to go out there and establish self-sustaining bases on places not on Earth. It's dangerous. People are going to die. It's going to be difficult. Very few people will want to take on this dangerous hard work. But I think it's important for the future of humanity, and for also preserving life as we know it on Earth. Because we are life's agency, and have some responsibility, as life's agency”.
Elon and Shotwell have come to the conclusion that Block 5 is the end of the Merlin design except for smaller adjustments. Shotwell said that there are enough demands for a new booster that refurbishing a reused Block 5 beyond 10 launches is unlikely. Elon is focused on Starship and full reusability. So Falcon 9, as it is, is just a workhorse and pushing for further advancements is a waste of time.
At this moment there have been 13 Block 5 boosters with 30 launches altogether. Currently there are 5 available F9 cores and two FH side cores in the SpaceX stable.
At this moment there have been 13 Block 5 boosters with 30 launches altogether. Currently there are 5 available F9 cores and two FH side cores in the SpaceX stable.
e-FTW
New electron smell
Shame we may never see a 10+ Flight Falcon 9 fly.
This shows you how Elon operates and motivates people: sets nutso goals (100 flights per booster, minimal refurb between flights, crazy cadence). By the time the motivated engineers build it, he has an even crazier concept (Starship, land on the launchpad, refuel and go back up right away) and they go and take a crack at that.
Seems to be working pretty well.
To be fair, this is also why some people that think Elon is a bit of a shyster. There are big promises that, rather than being kept, are superseded by even more grandiose promises. There are of fanciful statements that are later clarified in a walk-back. There are of things that are never actually 'built by the motivated engineers', as it were.
There's nothing wrong with Elon's ambition, but the way he communicates does foster a weird altered reality among some of the fanbase where desire to believe can surpass logic and reason. His style is nothing if not honest and objective, and that makes it all the more difficult for true believers to distinguish between plausible and probable.
For context, I'm thinking of things like the $4M (or whatever it was) Falcon, the ~50 (or whatever it was) launches in 2018 (or 19?), essentially leading out with 'screw going to the moon, that's for dummies', The $35k model 3 that we're still waiting on, actual FSD, etc...
Elon sets goals and moves toward them until they get there, or there is a reason to change the goal.
Starship is targeting $5 million a piece. Falcon 9 is fully reusable other than the second stage (recovery of which was cancelled due to Starship development).
Launch cadence is customer driven (At least it was until Starlink got moving), plus the whole conflagration thing.
Moon only makes sense because NASA wants it.
$35k Model 3 was real a year a ago. $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now
FSD is in progress
That's exactly my point. Any logical assessment at the time would have concluded that the $4M falcon was never going to happen, the 50 launches in a year was never going to happen, and going to the moon before Mars was always going to happen. But...at the time those concepts were hailed by some as gospel. Why?
FSD remains to be seen and is hopefully just a matter of Elon time and not true broken promises, and its hard to call the Standard Range Konami Code mess as a dishonest attempt to save face...
Because they believe that was actually Elon's plan (at the time). It was not to do something different while claiming those goals.
If Starship hits the 5 Million dollar mark and they launch them more than once per week, then that 'logical assessment' will be proven to be temporally wrong.
This is becoming an “Elon” thread in the F9 block discussion thread...but I’m at home not working and have nothing else pressing at the moment.
Most people are aware of Elon’s belief in setting incredibly ambitious goals which are generally achieved late and sometimes not at all. Clearly, on balance his accomplishments are impressive. I generally don’t fault him for missing targets or even changing goals, in fact I usually applaud him for it (not always: several promised Roadster “2.0” improvements were never delivered, but that is truly trivial stuff, not so trivial was making the Model X too complex, delaying the Model 3, and trying to over-automate the Model 3 assembly line) and am often gob-smacked by the audacity of what he does, e.g. plan to deliberately obsolete the F9 with a new vehicle that is so much more capable and cost-effective than the previous truly revolutionary vehicle that there is no comparison. Who else does stuff like that?
First, the $35K Model 3 is real and can be purchased, but the margin is thin so Tesla purposefully downplays it, and second, obviously FSD is proving much harder than Elon anticipated but Auto Pilot on highways far ahead of the competition. I use it constantly and love it!
Most people are aware of Elon’s belief in setting incredibly ambitious goals which are generally achieved late and sometimes not at all. Clearly, on balance his accomplishments are impressive. I generally don’t fault him for missing targets or even changing goals, in fact I usually applaud him for it (not always: several promised Roadster “2.0” improvements were never delivered, but that is truly trivial stuff, not so trivial was making the Model X too complex, delaying the Model 3, and trying to over-automate the Model 3 assembly line) and am often gob-smacked by the audacity of what he does, e.g. plan to deliberately obsolete the F9 with a new vehicle that is so much more capable and cost-effective than the previous truly revolutionary vehicle that there is no comparison. Who else does stuff like that?
Given that probably no post-Apollo human is going to set foot on the Moon for at least another 5 years and maybe 8, I am not ruling out humans on Mars before the Moon. Elon’s drive to colonize Mars is immense! I just hope the effort doesn’t kill him.
Again, that's exactly my point, which . It is not the aspiration in those statements with which I take umbrage, it is the abstraction of fact, logic, truth and belief that some folks take away from the statements--in both directions, fans and haters alike.
Starlink is another great example...
If Tesla claimed they would meet some metric on Model S and they actually didn't achieve it until Model 3...
Yeah, aspirational versus achievable, but unless you believe you can, you'll never try to. So you hold the aspiration as the goal, even if you fall short.
The Chicago Cubs won the World Series in 2016, were they not trying to win the 107 years previously?
Sure, people can go overboard. Like me now
