Hasn't RUD typically been used in failed landing attempts, however?ULA can't compete against SpaceX on cost. There is no chance for them in that arena. They can still compete on scheduling and quality. SpaceX has an enormous backlog of launches that they need to work through. ULA doesn't have that problem since no satellite company would ever want to pay their crazy high pricing. ULA also has an outstanding successful launch track record that SpaceX cannot match for a few more years as long as no other RUD incidents occur. So it will all come down to how the military chooses to prioritize their needs. I expect SpaceX to get 6 out of the 9 available. JMHO though.
I wouldn't expect those failures to compare against ULA who doesn't even attempt to recover their rockets.