Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

SpaceX vs. Everyone - ULA, NG, Boeing, Lockheed, etc.

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Hmm... it says it may be looking for BO to provide bids in the competition that could be released next yr:

With this new CRADA, the Space Force is signaling it wants to see Blue Origin challenge ULA and SpaceX when their five-year contracts are up for recompete in 2024. Requests for bids for NSSL Phase 3 could be released some time in 2023.

It also says that in order to qualify for award you:

To qualify for NSSL awards, New Glenn “must successfully complete certification flights and provide design and qualification data to enable AATS [assured access to space program office] to conduct its independent verification and validation process,” Space Systems Command said.
The National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program requires new entrants to perform at least two successful orbital launches to get certification.

So can BO bid prior to qualifying?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grendal
Hmm... it says it may be looking for BO to provide bids in the competition that could be released next yr:

So can BO bid prior to qualifying?

Interesting that Space Force is giving the courtesy of allowing BO to bid before getting qualified. Didn’t they try to freeze out SpaceX before saying they hadn’t been qualified yet?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grendal
um, blue origin has 3 flights with "no exact time" January 2023, December 2023 and January 2024
(my spouse used to do CRADA's)

some had essentially generic "we need this and that so anyone can compete and if they meet criteria" we can get more specific

some were focused "that company has a specific thing we need so do a CRADA with them for that specific compound"

Blue Origin launches (will launch. may launch) so minimum criteria met, can they meet additional criteria or get winnowed out in the selection process, but they were allowed

Her CRADA check sheets had certain lines, one being, did you advertise to the public?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: scaesare
Thanks for the insight...

I don't quite understand this line though... is this saying that because BO "launches" (something... anything...), that they meet some initial criteria, even if what they have launched is a completely different rocket?

Blue Origin launches (will launch. may launch) so minimum criteria met, can they meet additional criteria or get winnowed out in the selection process, but they were allowed
 
Thanks for the insight...

I don't quite understand this line though... is this saying that because BO "launches" (something... anything...), that they meet some initial criteria, even if what they have launched is a completely different rocket?

@scaesare (Edison Carter)

i'm suspecting it's on of the CRADA requirements, ie
"did you advertise to the public" since it's open to all, or do you have a specific researcher with unique skills, products so a targeted CRADA to a specific or a few specifics. entities
(had this discussion with spouse, it's been 6-9 years since she did CRADA's so i kinda understand

so any and all can compete, that was a specific checkbox that needed a "tick mark"
(theoretical; 'we weren't allowed to compete for a public thing, so you have to reopen bids")


is advertising 3 potential launches so perhaps minimum criteria
I suspect it's an open CRADA so any and all can compete, but BO will probably be winnowed rapidly
(what is or probably happened or is happening with Artemis and lunar stuff, they are being gently and gracefully eased out imho.)
 
  • Like
Reactions: scaesare
So... what's the delineation between Virgin Orbit and Galactic?
They are separate companies in different markets. Orbit is a SpaceX competitor that lifts payloads to orbit via a 747 airplane “boost” while Galactic is a Blue Origin competitor that provides tourist rides to the edge of space via a solid rocket motor single stage craft dropped from a purpose built aircraft and glides back to earth.

Actually, SpaceX plays in that tourist market as well, now that I think about it, but their costs per seat are far higher than Galactic or Blue Origin (although given how much money those companies are losing, maybe they should be charging a lot more per seat!).
 
Actually, SpaceX plays in that tourist market as well, now that I think about it, but their costs per seat are far higher than Galactic or Blue Origin
Well, you have to adjust the cost per seat for the duration of time in the seat, or maybe out of the seat in microgravity. VG and BO microgravity times are measured in single digit minutes, but the Axiom missions or the Inspiration missions are many days. (I have a friend who works for Axiom but no inside knowledge.)
 
Well, you have to adjust the cost per seat for the duration of time in the seat, or maybe out of the seat in microgravity. VG and BO microgravity times are measured in single digit minutes, but the Axiom missions or the Inspiration missions are many days. (I have a friend who works for Axiom but no inside knowledge.)
Sure. They are apples and oranges but still ostensibly in the tourist sector although SpaceX is really heading down a path to commercial astronauts unlike the other two.
 
Orbit is a SpaceX competitor that lifts payloads to orbit via a 747 airplane “boost” ...

Worth coloring this a bit: Orbit is more a direct competitor to the small launchers out there, notably Electron, potentially Astra (tho they've fallen off the rails a bit...), and aspirationally some of the others out there that haven't launched anything. Their payload capabilities are all loosely based on the old ESPA Grande standard (Basically a meter cubed and a few hundred kg), and their major selling point is getting you to the orbit you want, when you want. You get to be the big fish in the small pond.

Their business model was basically all hung on the concepts of 1) reusable "stage 0", and 2) mobile launch infrastructure ("we bring the launch site to you"). The problems with those concepts are: 1) it still costs a friggin lot of money to own and operate a 747, and amortizing that over just a few launches a year makes it all but untenable. 2) Given the relative abundance of fixed launch infrastructure and the simplicity of logistics for this class of payload, that whole concept is kind of DOA.

The big issue with this class of micro launchers in general is there's not really any useful market growth opportunity. That's why Pete ate his hat, that's why Astra is having problems, and that's why the days of some random SPAC funding anyone who can spell "Rokcet" are long gone. While its fair to expect the demand from small/compatible payloads to increase as time moves on, most of those are experimental/educational/demo type missions, and in a lot of cases those kinds of customers are going to seriously consider the financial upside of ridesharing on a larger rocket over the downside of a sub-optimal orbit. (So, yeah, in that respect they're competitors with someone like SpaceX/Falcon 9) And then once those kinds of customers graduate up to any kind of useful service/business plan they're going to be looking into bigger satellites, more satellites, and often both...and that pretty quickly inflects on economies of scale into buying bigger rockets (or space on bigger rockets) vs the micro class.

Put another way, the market around the micro class of launchers is really always going to be pretty limited to a) low volume customers that are willing to pay a premium to go exactly where they want, when they want, and b) generally low recurring patronage.