Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Speculation: configuration queue for non owner line waiters

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.

McHoffa

CyberOwners
Sep 29, 2015
1,121
1,266
Canton, NC
Plenty of discussion about owners getting priority, jumping ahead in line, California first, etc, but I wonder how they plan on letting non owners configure when the time comes.

Will they let all of the people who stood in line in California go first, or will they let, say, the first 20 people from each line across the country go first, then #21-40, etc?

If they do all CA line waiters first before moving on to Nevada, Oregon, etc and then moving east, east coast wouldn't see the car for quite a while.

If they did groups of 20 per store, that would be 1800 in each group (there were 90 stores in the US when reservations started) and half of those will likely wait for AWD/standard/white interior/Performance. At 1000 per week that would get them through a group of 10 per week per store.

My reason for thinking the latter is how they plan it is that from what I can gather, all people who were among the first in line (like me, #20 in Charlotte NC) seem to have Dec-Feb windows while those who were #100 or higher in line have Jan-March or Feb-April windows, despite where in the US they reserved.

No one knows but Tesla, but I'm hoping they don't fill all west coast orders before moving east.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Justmurr
My reason for thinking the latter is how they plan it is that from what I can gather, all people who were among the first in line (like me, #20 in Charlotte NC) seem to have Dec-Feb windows while those who were #100 or higher in line have Jan-March or Feb-April windows, despite where in the US they reserved.

I was easily #500+ in line here in So Cal. I have a Dec-Feb window.
 
Plenty of discussion about owners getting priority, jumping ahead in line, California first, etc, but I wonder how they plan on letting non owners configure when the time comes.

Will they let all of the people who stood in line in California go first, or will they let, say, the first 20 people from each line across the country go first, then #21-40, etc?

If they do all CA line waiters first before moving on to Nevada, Oregon, etc and then moving east, east coast wouldn't see the car for quite a while.

If they did groups of 20 per store, that would be 1800 in each group (there were 90 stores in the US when reservations started) and half of those will likely wait for AWD/standard/white interior/Performance. At 1000 per week that would get them through a group of 10 per week per store.

My reason for thinking the latter is how they plan it is that from what I can gather, all people who were among the first in line (like me, #20 in Charlotte NC) seem to have Dec-Feb windows while those who were #100 or higher in line have Jan-March or Feb-April windows, despite where in the US they reserved.

No one knows but Tesla, but I'm hoping they don't fill all west coast orders before moving east.
I agree they will send equal groups of invites to each store. Maybe less than 20? But I don't think they will start in California, then move east.
 
My reason for thinking the latter is how they plan it is that from what I can gather, all people who were among the first in line (like me, #20 in Charlotte NC) seem to have Dec-Feb windows while those who were #100 or higher in line have Jan-March or Feb-April windows, despite where in the US they reserved.
How did you make this determination? I was not among the first 100 (I didn't reserve until 11:30 a.m.), and my estimate is December-February.
 
I'm a non-owner, waited in line early morning in Burbank, CA. I'm trying to decide between the First Production/LR (to ensure the full tax credit) and the base model (I would prefer this). I think there's a real possibility that even if I order the base model when my configuration frst opens, I won't take delivery until October and will lose $3750 off the tax credit. Seems that Model 3s are slowly trickling out of the factory with battery packs still being made by hand. Here's my opinion of the order of when configs will open for people in the United States:
FIRST PRODUCTION
1) Tesla and SpaceX employees, California first.
2) S/X owners who waited in line, California first.
3) S/X owners who ordered online anytime between April 2016 and Feb 2018, California first.
4) S/X previous owners who sold their car or lease ended.
5) S/X owners who own 1 Tesla car can still order a second Model 3 (Goes against rules but seems to be happening).
6) Model 3 new owners who are NOT previous S/X owners (bought reservation on Ebay or Craiglist or family member) will suddenly get priority to use their other reservation for another Model 3 because their new Model 3 counts as a Tesla on their account.
** This is where we are as of today Feb 2nd) **
7) Non-owner line waiters can order BOTH reservations. My guess is that it will NOT be California first, it will be based on your place in line in the time zone that you ordered. (First 20 people in line at every U.S location first. Then when those are filled the next 20 people for all U.S. locations, etc.)
8) Non-owner with online reservation can order BOTH reservations, based on time of ordering online.
BASE BATTERY + PUP
9) Tesla and SpaceX employees - 2 reservations
10) S/X/Model3 owners- 2 reservations
11) Non-owner line waiters - 2 reservations. Same rules as #7.
12) Non-owner with online reservation - 2 reservations.
BASE MODEL, no PUP
13) Tesla and SpaceX employees - 2 reservations
14) S/X/Model3 owners- 2 reservations
15) Non-owner line waiters - 2 reservations. Same rules as #7.
16) Non-owner with online reservation - 2 reservations.
**
I'm worried that I will be in Group #15 after tens of thousands of people have already ordered 1 or 2 Model 3 cars and I won't be able to take delivery before October 1st and will lose $3750 of the tax credit. DISCLAIMER : I'm not an expert on any of this and I'm totally guessing.
 
I'm a non-owner, waited in line early morning in Burbank, CA. I'm trying to decide between the First Production/LR (to ensure the full tax credit) and the base model (I would prefer this). I think there's a real possibility that even if I order the base model when my configuration frst opens, I won't take delivery until October and will lose $3750 off the tax credit. Seems that Model 3s are slowly trickling out of the factory with battery packs still being made by hand. Here's my opinion of the order of when configs will open for people in the United States:
FIRST PRODUCTION
1) Tesla and SpaceX employees, California first.
2) S/X owners who waited in line, California first.
3) S/X owners who ordered online anytime between April 2016 and Feb 2018, California first.
4) S/X previous owners who sold their car or lease ended.
5) S/X owners who own 1 Tesla car can still order a second Model 3 (Goes against rules but seems to be happening).
6) Model 3 new owners who are NOT previous S/X owners (bought reservation on Ebay or Craiglist or family member) will suddenly get priority to use their other reservation for another Model 3 because their new Model 3 counts as a Tesla on their account.
** This is where we are as of today Feb 2nd) **
7) Non-owner line waiters can order BOTH reservations. My guess is that it will NOT be California first, it will be based on your place in line in the time zone that you ordered. (First 20 people in line at every U.S location first. Then when those are filled the next 20 people for all U.S. locations, etc.)
8) Non-owner with online reservation can order BOTH reservations, based on time of ordering online.
BASE BATTERY + PUP
9) Tesla and SpaceX employees - 2 reservations
10) S/X/Model3 owners- 2 reservations
11) Non-owner line waiters - 2 reservations. Same rules as #7.
12) Non-owner with online reservation - 2 reservations.
BASE MODEL, no PUP
13) Tesla and SpaceX employees - 2 reservations
14) S/X/Model3 owners- 2 reservations
15) Non-owner line waiters - 2 reservations. Same rules as #7.
16) Non-owner with online reservation - 2 reservations.
**
I'm worried that I will be in Group #15 after tens of thousands of people have already ordered 1 or 2 Model 3 cars and I won't be able to take delivery before October 1st and will lose $3750 of the tax credit. DISCLAIMER : I'm not an expert on any of this and I'm totally guessing.
Ugh, thanks for laying all of that out so well - I'll be part of group #15 (Seattle) and have never been closer to canceling. I've ridden in the first production version of this car and think it's great, but neither it nor whatever the base model will be is worth waiting another year for (especially if we miss out on the full federal tax credit). By then, we'll be only about a year or 2 away from competitive EV offerings from other manufacturers, and since we live and work in a major city and won't really need supercharging, Tesla's supercharging network really won't matter to us.
 
There's a third possibility which I think the most likely. California may get the first invites, but it will quickly move across the country rather than all California orders first. They want to utilize all their deliver centers as much as possible. The only reason I think California will start first is because they will run out of owner orders to deliver first (which in turn is because they started doing owner orders earlier than the rest of the country). But it's definitely not some sort of algorithm like "the first 20 people from each store". More like inviting people based on where they ship cars and have capacity to deliver them. The owner rollout past California has been pretty random, I don't expect that to change for the non-owner rollout.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RenMan68
The reason I believe CA non-owners will be first in priority is two reasons:

1) A large concentration of reservation holders is in CA
2) It is a heck of a lot easier (and quicker) to deliver cars in CA, since the factory is there.

I am not coming to this conclusion because I am in CA. This is thinking logically about how Tesla operated in the past, and how it will best get their delivery numbers up.
 
The reason I believe CA non-owners will be first in priority is two reasons:

1) A large concentration of reservation holders is in CA
2) It is a heck of a lot easier (and quicker) to deliver cars in CA, since the factory is there.

I am not coming to this conclusion because I am in CA. This is thinking logically about how Tesla operated in the past, and how it will best get their delivery numbers up.
Nearly half of all owners are in CA so that's probably true. If I (in NC) configure at the same time as someone in CA, they'll actually get their car 2 weeks before me most likely.
 
Ugh, thanks for laying all of that out so well - I'll be part of group #15 (Seattle) and have never been closer to canceling. I've ridden in the first production version of this car and think it's great, but neither it nor whatever the base model will be is worth waiting another year for (especially if we miss out on the full federal tax credit). By then, we'll be only about a year or 2 away from competitive EV offerings from other manufacturers, and since we live and work in a major city and won't really need supercharging, Tesla's supercharging network really won't matter to us.
Do what you want, but you're saying if you have to wait almost another year for the Model 3, you'd rather cancel and wait 2-3 years for a competitor to maybe come along with something similar?

(btw, I don't think anyone in the US, especially those that reserved on day one or two, will be waiting another year unless they want AWD or Performance)
 
  • Like
Reactions: zmarty and Pkmmte