Speculation discussion: What Model 3 news will we get at the quarterly results call May 2nd?

[kengchang]

Lets not get too optimistic... the 5-6K target implies the 3rd shift, i.e. the max before that will be 3.5-4K. And Elon also said they'll stop production in May for adjustments, i.e. the 3.5-4K can only be reached then. Before that, I think we should not be expecting much more than 3K.

Last shutdown in April was for 3-4K, next shutdown in May/June is 5K

 

[Moderatefan]

Last shutdown in April was for 3-4K, next shutdown in May/June is 5K

No, 5K is 3rd shift (24×7, remember?).
You don't need to do the shutdown to add the 3rd shift.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Last shutdown in April was for 3-4K, next shutdown in May/June is 5K

Yea, my understanding is that the last shutdown put them over 3K/week once they came back online. Over the next few weeks, with the line in its current configuration, they'll ramp towards 4K, when they're ready to move towards 5K, they'll shut down and tweak/prep.

 

[drawfour]

Do we know that for sure? What if the Standard Range pack is the same as a Long Range pack, but with space-fillers where the other 10kWh's worth of cells would go?

If it's a different pack entirely, that's one thing, and an understandable bottleneck, but if it's the same pack, but with less cells in it, I would think the only reason Tesla hasn't started producing it is $$$

We don't know anything about how they plan to make the pack, so it would all be speculation. I think the only thing we're fairly confident about is that they will not use one battery and just software limit the charging like they did with the Model S 60 (which was really a 75). The cost would probably eat too much into profit and they'd be negative on the car.

The materials cost would take less, but it would necessarily change parts of the assembly process to make some of the cells active and some of them filler. I feel it's unlikely that they would start manufacturing the standard range battery until they are producing long range batteries in excess of the capacity to consume them.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

We don't know anything about how they plan to make the pack, so it would all be speculation. I think the only thing we're fairly confident about is that they will not use one battery and just software limit the charging like they did with the Model S 60 (which was really a 75). The cost would probably eat too much into profit and they'd be negative on the car.

The materials cost would take less, but it would necessarily change parts of the assembly process to make some of the cells active and some of them filler. I feel it's unlikely that they would start manufacturing the standard range battery until they are producing long range batteries in excess of the capacity to consume them.

Yea, I think we're all in agreement that they won't be software-limiting a pack. But in the interest of keeping production costs low, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them use the same pack architecture for SR and LR, with the only difference being the amount of cells in each.

I mean, the cutouts and wiring harnesses for the front motor already exists in all RWD 3's....

 

[kengchang]

No, 5K is 3rd shift (24×7, remember?).
You don't need to do the shutdown to add the 3rd shift.

3rd shift at Fremont won't do much unless Gigafactory can output more with the new battery pack line

 

[Moderatefan]

3rd shift at Fremont won't do much unless Gigafactory can output more with the new battery pack line

And obviously GF will be up to the task.
In the Q4 call and later clarifications there were 2 things said:
1. The Q1 end expected volume of 2.5K can be achieved by ramping up existing lines, the new line from Germany is not required for that.
2. The new line from Germany will have production capacity as all of the existing lines or more. They were supposed to start ramping it up from Apr.

 

[kengchang]

And obviously GF will be up to the task.
In the Q4 call and later clarifications there were 2 things said:
1. The Q1 end expected volume of 2.5K can be achieved by ramping up existing lines, the new line from Germany is not required for that.
2. The new line from Germany will have production capacity as all of the existing lines or more. They were supposed to start ramping it up from Apr.

Elon was camping at Gigafactory during the shut down indicating the new line was just installed during the shutdown.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Elon was camping at Gigafactory during the shut down indicating the new line was just installed during the shutdown.

So in April it was installed. It's probably undergoing testing and verification now. Maybe the May shutdown is to bring it online?

 

[kengchang]

So in April it was installed. It's probably undergoing testing and verification now. Maybe the May shutdown is to bring it online?

Probably, it should be running in slow motion right now, no strobe light required. They can't hit 3K+/week sustained without it.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Probably, it should be running in slow motion right now, no strobe light required. They can't hit 3K+/week sustained without it.

I'd love the surprise to be that they dedicated the new line to Dual Motor production and they'll be available starting July 1st....but I don't think we'll get THAT good of a surprise.

 

[kengchang]

I'd love the surprise to be that they dedicated the new line to Dual Motor production and they'll be available starting July 1st....but I don't think we'll get THAT good of a surprise.

They won't add any options until 5K/week unfortunately

 

[Moderatefan]

I don't see how Fremont factory shutdown and GF new line ramping up are related. I think they are independent activities, but both needed to reach the goals that were set.

 

[dhrivnak]

Looking at April sales at InsideEVs Tesla only sold 3875 or a rate of just under 1000 a week. I was really hoping to see north of 7000 units so we are NOT out of the woods yet.

 

[kengchang]

I don't see how Fremont factory shutdown and GF new line ramping up are related. I think they are independent activities, but both needed to reach the goals that were set.

They were both shutted down 3-5 days though

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I don't see how Fremont factory shutdown and GF new line ramping up are related. I think they are independent activities, but both needed to reach the goals that were set.

The packs are coming from the GF, which was identified as an early bottleneck.


With the design of the Model 3 compared to the S and X, once the battery pack is in, it takes significant effort to remove it. It's not "plug and play", hence the retirement of the pack-swapping station idea.

So it stands to reason that putting the pack into the car is a showstopper as far as producing the rest of the car, if the pack's not ready.

It's actually a good sign that they now schedule shutdowns at the same time. It means Fremont doesn't leave packs lying around. They get them, and they go right into cars.

 

[Moderatefan]

They were both shutted down 3-5 days though

Oh ok, I guess I didn't pay much attention to this. So, they are ramping up both at the same time.

 

[Trips]

Elon has already said that no white interior and no dual motor until they hit 5k/wk. He estimated July for that 5k/wk target. So why would you think that white interior would be next month and dual motor the month after that? I think they'll both start at the same time.

Elon said that the White Interior will have "Similar Timing" to the Dual Motor. Yes, he said they need 5k/week for dual motor "So probably July". They also told employees that they want to be at 6,000/week by the end of JUNE.

I think and hope that they will release the white interior in June for July delivery. This should be an easier option to add then the dual motor. After the white interior is working they could work to add the extra motor.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Elon said that the White Interior will have "Similar Timing" to the Dual Motor. Yes, he said they need 5k/week for dual motor "So probably July". They also told employees that they want to be at 6,000/week by the end of JUNE.

I think and hope that they will release the white interior in June for July delivery. This should be an easier option to add then the dual motor. After the white interior is working they could work to add the extra motor.

Yea, they have to make the option available in the Design Studio before the production line goes live with it, so they at least know how many of each configuration to start building.