Speculation discussion: What Model 3 news will we get at the quarterly results call May 2nd?

[ModelNforNerd]

With tomorrow after market close being the Q1 results call, we're due for our quarterly Model 3 news dump.


Most publicly traded companies play things close to the vest in the week preceding their earnings calls, and hold announcements for the call. Tesla is no exception.


With that being said, other than production numbers, is this the quarter where Elon makes announcements regarding adding new variants to Production, to include: Dual Motors, Performance, White Interior, and/or Standard Range?

Or.... will the production line chug through the current configuration until Q3 begins, then unleash new variants (and the associated added complexity)?

 

[Moderatefan]

With tomorrow after market close being the Q1 results call, we're due for our quarterly Model 3 news dump.


Most publicly traded companies play things close to the vest in the week preceding their earnings calls, and hold announcements for the call. Tesla is no exception.


With that being said, other than production numbers, is this the quarter where Elon makes announcements regarding adding new variants to Production, to include: Dual Motors, Performance, White Interior, and/or Standard Range?

Or.... will the production line chug through the current configuration until Q3 begins, then unleash new variants (and the associated added complexity)?

He previously said that new configurations won't be added until they reach 5K/week, i.e. after EOM June. I think it'd be premature to say when, but would be helpful to elaborate on prices at least. But he can tweet about that, doesn't need to be in the call.

After the plant closure though, we should get a confirmation whether they reached 3K or not.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

He previously said that new configurations won't be added until they reach 5K/week, i.e. after EOM June. I think it'd be premature to say when, but would be helpful to elaborate on prices at least. But he can tweet about that, doesn't need to be in the call.

After the plant closure though, we should get a confirmation whether they reached 3K or not.

Honestly, I think there's Model S and X news as well.

When the Performance 3 is announced, Tesla may try to differentiate the S from it a little more clearly. I'm thinking a new, possibly bigger, battery pack will help nudge the range and performance numbers a little higher than the 3, hopefully justifying the price difference.

 

[eSpiritIV]

lets hope for a Model S refresh when Q2 hits with 400 mile range.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

lets hope for a Model S refresh when Q2 hits with 400 mile range.

a 130kWh pack, IF things were linear, would have a theoretical range of 435.5 miles, but the added size would not be weightless.....so if they were to make a 130kWh pack, a range of 400 wouldn't be off the table.

Between the added range, and the charging speed in the bigger pack, a new generation of S and X could help alleviate potential Supercharger congestion problems.

 

[BobbyKings]

About Model 3 updates in the Q1 2018 earnings call (which this thread is about):
FSD
SR
Coast to coast in M3
Incentive expiry
Exports
China production
Grohe bottleneck
Ride sharing
Build quality
Gross Margin per car
Units per week/month/year expectations

 

[JeffK]

When the Performance 3 is announced, Tesla may try to differentiate the S from it a little more clearly. I'm thinking a new, possibly bigger, battery pack will help nudge the range and performance numbers a little higher than the 3, hopefully justifying the price difference.

This depends on a few factors, keep in mind the Model S will always be more expensive to manufacture than the Model 3. Is it better to sell one fully spec'd Model S P100D or a couple Performance Model 3s? Model 3 and its derivatives are going to be the new money maker by far.

It will no doubt be a better value (for many people) to get a Performance Model 3 with all the options rather than a base Model S. There's nothing Tesla can or should do about that. Personally, the Model S is too big for me, and I'll never get that over the 3 even if I had the money for the P100D (which I never will).

For Tesla to hold themselves back simply because there is a subset of the population who can afford the top end Model S might choose a Model 3 is crazy talk. Usually those same people can afford a Roadster so they can go with that for both performance and range.

S/X for extra cargo room.

The question later will be, what are they going to change in the S/X to make it more like the Model 3 to bring down costs. Model 3 motors are more efficient, the battery is more energy dense, etc.

If anything, they will try out new technology, perhaps a HUD, faster MCU, more convenience features, etc. They can also choose to make the interior more "luxurious"

This, however, leaves a gaping hole in the product line. What if you can afford a Model 3 but want a full sized sedan/hatchback? Besides the used market, there're no options here. I'd like to see them eventually create a cheaper base Model S.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

About Model 3 updates in the Q1 2018 earnings call (which this thread is about):
FSD
SR
Coast to coast in M3
Incentive expiry
Exports
China production
Grohe bottleneck
Ride sharing
Build quality
Gross Margin per car
Units per week/month/year expectations

I don't see most of these being discussed on the call. They may drop a line or two as reference in the shareholder's letter.


On the call, I think we'll get production stats, where they feel they'll get to in Q3, and expectations for new Model 3 variant release dates.

We'll see though, Elon is usually good for a surprise.

 

[F_T_K]

I'd like to hear a more firm timeline for the all-wheel-drive and air suspension options for the Model 3. Currently it's just "Late 2018", which is a bit vague.

Although, a 400 mile Model S would be pretty neat, too.

 

[jimmyjohn]

And how has that worked out for you --- in the past --- when the company gave a non-vague timeline? My guess: disappointed.

I'd like to hear a more firm timeline for the all-wheel-drive and air suspension options for the Model 3. Currently it's just "Late 2018", which is a bit vague ....

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'd like to hear a more firm timeline for the all-wheel-drive and air suspension options for the Model 3. Currently it's just "Late 2018", which is a bit vague.

Although, a 400 mile Model S would be pretty neat, too.

Yea, I'm waiting on AWD/Performance.....and it would be nice to hear something other than "Late 2018", but at this point, I have a feeling we won't see any variants other than "First Production" until early August. I think we'll get our announcement at the Q2 call in early August, and they'll update the Design Studio that night.

The last few quarters, they've announced changes to the production timeline, and within 48 hours, people's Design Studio pages have changed. So we'll probably keep following that pattern.

I've stashed some money in a CD that matures in June, so I'll be ready to go as soon as Dual Motors is available!


(and I think we COULD see a 400 mile Model S if they move to the 18650 cells being used in the Model 3. but we won't get that announcement until A: we get our 3 PLRD announcement and B: Tesla is already making the new S packs.

 

[kengchang]

Redesigned Model S will use 21700 battery just like the Model 3 and it should be in development phase already. No point on keep using 18650 when there's production cap at Panasonic Japan.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Redesigned Model S will use 21700 battery just like the Model 3 and it should be in development phase already. No point on keep using 18650 when there's production cap at Panasonic Japan.

crap, nice catch, that's what I meant.


And yea, I don't know when the original contract for the older cells runs out. But I imagine when it does, S and X will make the switch.

 

[kengchang]

crap, nice catch, that's what I meant.


And yea, I don't know when the original contract for the older cells runs out. But I imagine when it does, S and X will make the switch.

The contract obligation ended already on Dec 31, 2017 if I remember correctly. Tesla/Panasonic is not expanding the 18650 production since switch is coming soon.

 

[Trips]

My Predictions of what they say:

Dual Motor, White Interior, SR - White interior coming next month and dual motor in July. Will start taking reservations in June. Short Range will be in Q3.
Coast to coast in M3 - Done last week with a video coming soon.
China production - Working on having a plant by end of 2019
Build quality - Better then a BMW
Units per week - Hit 3,700 last week after the upgrades. More upgrades and downtime are coming as it is just part of the process.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

My Predictions of what they say:

Dual Motor, White Interior, SR - White interior coming next month and dual motor in July. Will start taking reservations in June. Short Range will be in Q3.
Coast to coast in M3 - Done last week with a video coming soon.
China production - Working on having a plant by end of 2019
Build quality - Better then a BMW
Units per week - Hit 3,700 last week after the upgrades. More upgrades and downtime are coming as it is just part of the process.

With Elon's previous prediction of "cash flow positive" in Q3 and Q4, it's quite possible that they just "suck it up" and shut down for a few days in late June, in order to be at the 5,000/week threshold to start July.

Between sheer output of 5,000 cars/week, and the addition of higher-margin configs to the mix, the stock price could set up for a nice bounce.

 

[drawfour]

My Predictions of what they say:

Dual Motor, White Interior, SR - White interior coming next month and dual motor in July. Will start taking reservations in June. Short Range will be in Q3.
Coast to coast in M3 - Done last week with a video coming soon.
China production - Working on having a plant by end of 2019
Build quality - Better then a BMW
Units per week - Hit 3,700 last week after the upgrades. More upgrades and downtime are coming as it is just part of the process.

Elon has already said that no white interior and no dual motor until they hit 5k/wk. He estimated July for that 5k/wk target. So why would you think that white interior would be next month and dual motor the month after that? I think they'll both start at the same time.

You also think that the short range will be Q3? That's July-Sep. Gigafactory has to start producing two batteries to do that, and it just producing one battery has been a really big bottleneck. Potentially they could start manufacturing the batteries at end of Q3, but hasn't estimated delivery for standard range been moved to Q1 of next year, or "late 2018" at the best? I don't think standard range battery has any hope of starting manufacturing until Q4 at earliest.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Gigafactory has to start producing two batteries to do that, and it just producing one battery has been a really big bottleneck. Potentially they could start manufacturing the batteries at end of Q3, but hasn't estimated delivery for standard range been moved to Q1 of next year, or "late 2018" at the best? I don't think standard range battery has any hope of starting manufacturing until Q4 at earliest.

Do we know that for sure? What if the Standard Range pack is the same as a Long Range pack, but with space-fillers where the other 10kWh's worth of cells would go?

If it's a different pack entirely, that's one thing, and an understandable bottleneck, but if it's the same pack, but with less cells in it, I would think the only reason Tesla hasn't started producing it is $$$

 

[commasign]

Whatever the question is, Elon's answer is "3 to 6 months".

 

[Moderatefan]

Units per week - Hit 3,700 last week after the upgrades.

Lets not get too optimistic... the 5-6K target implies the 3rd shift, i.e. the max before that will be 3.5-4K. And Elon also said they'll stop production in May for adjustments, i.e. the 3.5-4K can only be reached then. Before that, I think we should not be expecting much more than 3K.