[Speculation] Model 3 performance will be S/W upgraded

[Chewy3]

I know we've seen some small increases in performance for the Performance models, but Tesla just sent out an email that both the Model S and X base models got their 0-60 times dropped by a full second via a S/W upgrade. That's a huge difference! Right now I'm sure it'll be a nice differentiator between them and the model 3, but there doesn't seem like many reasons the Model 3 won't be able to get a nice performance boost down the road via OTA update.

 

[JeffK]

Quote from Electrek:

Without going into details, a Tesla spokesperson confirmed to Electrek that they are rolling out new software and hardware improvements that are enabling those performance enhancements.

Since the enhancements include hardware upgrades, those new specs are for new vehicles being built today and not the current fleet.

Tesla introduces new performance enhancements to Model S and Model X

This boost would only be possible if it was built into the hardware from the beginning.

 

[Canuck]

but there doesn't seem like many reasons the Model 3 won't be able to get a nice performance boost down the road via OTA update.

You are correct -- there's not "many reasons the Model 3 won't be able to get a nice performance boost down the road via OTA update" -- there's only one reason: Tesla won't do it because the 3 has to be slower than the S/X to keep people buying the S/X.

The P version of the 3 will allow for it -- but then you'll likely be paying close to the same for one as a base Model S/X -- so it's justified -- if Tesla's reasoning is what I think it is.

 

[Chewy3]

Quote from Electrek:


Tesla introduces new performance enhancements to Model S and Model X

This boost would only be possible if it was built into the hardware from the beginning.

new Model S and Model X 75 kWh vehicles received an over-the-air software update and now have improved performance, with the ability to accelerate from zero to 60 mph one second faster.{/QUOTE]

I'm curious what hardware changes they made. The email specifically says OTA update for the improved 0-60. Not sure how 'new' they have to be though.

 

[seattlite2004]

75 and 75D variants increased performance from July 1st - software and hardware improvements?

 

[insaneoctane]

I've been meaning to poll people to see if they think this might happen on the M3. Weigh in here:
[POLL] Untapped 0-60 performance in the LR today? With only OTA-SOFTWARE the car could...

 

[kzod]

I bet with a sw update the car might even be able to fly. Heck Elon may remotely activate their reproductive capabilities and they will be fruitful and multiply.

 

[JeffK]

You are correct -- there's not "many reasons the Model 3 won't be able to get a nice performance boost down the road via OTA update" -- there's only one reason: Tesla won't do it because the 3 has to be slower than the S/X to keep people buying the S/X.

The P version of the 3 will allow for it -- but then you'll likely be paying close to the same for one as a base Model S/X -- so it's justified -- if Tesla's reasoning is what I think it is.

This absolutely doesn't apply after the ramp up is complete in 6-12 months. There's no reason to keep the Model S faster in the base model.

Keeping the S faster is less energy efficient than having the Model 3 faster purely due to weight.

 

[Knightshade]

This absolutely doesn't apply after the ramp up is complete in 6-12 months. There's no reason to keep the Model S faster in the base model..

Yes there is. The ~$20,000 more the S costs.

That's why they announced the 1 second 0-60 improvement on the 75 right as the 3 specs were coming out.

Who would pay $20,000 more for an S75 that was slower than the ER Model 3?

Nobody unless they really needed those 2 tiny child seats in the back.

But now the 75 is ~1 second faster 0-60 than the 3. Suddenly that 20k looks like it's actually buying you something besides a little space and air suspension.

 

[JeffK]

Yes there is. The ~$20,000 more the S costs.
That's why they announced the 1 second 0-60 improvement on the 75 right as the 3 specs were coming out.
Who would pay $20,000 more for an S75 that was slower than the ER Model 3?
Nobody unless they really needed those 2 tiny child seats in the back.
But now the 75 is ~1 second faster 0-60 than the 3.

The volume of Model 3 sales and manufacturing ability will be nearly four times that of S/X combined. At a profit margin of 25%, far more money can be made selling Model 3s once production is ramped up.

Keep in mind model 3 is competing with ICEs. There are plenty of ICEs in this price range that are quicker.

 

[Knightshade]

Quote from Electrek:


Tesla introduces new performance enhancements to Model S and Model X

This boost would only be possible if it was built into the hardware from the beginning.

The article specifically says the enhancement is only for newer built Ses, because it's a HW change.

Since the enhancements include hardware upgrades, those new specs are for new vehicles being built today and not the current fleet.

 

[JeffK]

The article specifically says the enhancement is only for newer built Ses, because it's a HW change.

Yes, that's what I said.

 

[Knightshade]

The volume of Model 3 sales and manufacturing ability will be nearly four times that of S/X combined. At a profit margin of 25%, far more money can be made selling Model 3s once production is ramped up.

Not really.

The S costs more. The same margin on a car that costs more means more profit per S sold > than per 3 sold. Because math.

Plus they're already not going to fill existing 3 orders for at least another 18-24 months, possibly longer, so they don't need to sell any more of those.

 

[JeffK]

Not really.

The S costs more. The same margin on a car that costs more means more profit per S sold > than per 3 sold. Because math.

Plus they're already not going to fill existing 3 orders for at least another 18-24 months, possibly longer, so they don't need to sell any more of those.

Ramp up, according to Tesla should be completed around the middle of next year at which point Model 3s will be outselling Model S nearly eightfold (assuming an even distribution of S/X).

25% of average Model 3 selling price times eight > %30 of average Model S selling price (because: math )

Upselling on Model 3 features = more money.

 

[Knightshade]

Ramp up, according to Tesla should be completed around the middle of next year at which point Model 3s will be outselling Model S nearly eightfold.

Yes. And they will still be filling existing orders. They don't need more of those. They'll still not be making enough to fill demand.

25% of average Model 3 selling price time eight > %30 of average Model S selling price (because: math )

Which would only matter if 3 demand sags.

Which it hasn't, and isn't likely to for at least a couple more years.

Hell the one # we have on NEW 3 orders exceeds Teslas full-run ability to fill even after preorders are done.


S demand however would sag if there was no reason to buy one over a 3.

Hence why the base S had to be noticably faster than the 3.

Hence why they knocked 1 second off the 0-60 about the same time the 3 was getting ready to be delivered.

 

[JeffK]

existing orders.

That's just it, they don't have hundreds of thousands of existing orders just yet. They have hundreds of thousands of reservations. The orders have not been placed, not everyone has decided on options yet.

Tesla makes more money off of upgrades than selling the base model. It's in their best interest to get people to upgrade when they have the capacity to produce them at full volume. (after this upcoming spring)

S demand however would sag if there was no reason to buy one over a 3.

Hence why the base S had to be noticably faster than the 3.

Demand for Model S already started to sag... that is why they need this at least as a stop-gap measure until the ramp up is complete. Once ramp up is complete there's no reason to do this anymore and if performance was indeed software upgradable due to being artificially turned down, it could then be unlocked without penalty.

A new buyer can always get a Model S faster than a Model 3 so if someone has the money and is impatient, there's only one choice. As far as Model S and Model 3 go, the people who can afford both options are far less than those who could choose between a Model 3 or choose to cancel their reservation and purchase a quicker ICE.

 

[Knightshade]

That's just it, they don't have hundreds of thousands of existing orders just yet. They have hundreds of thousands of reservations. The orders have not been placed, not everyone has decided on options yet.

Tesla makes more money off of upgrades than selling the base model. It's in their best interest to get people to upgrade when they have the capacity to produce them at full volume. (after this upcoming spring)

Since existing pricing and options are generally known the reservation #s are fairly solid by now- here's what Tesla has actually said-

Elon said recently "Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year (2018)"

He also said there are 455,000 net reservations.

He also said new orders have been 1800 per day since the last reveal. Which is 12,600 per week. More than they project they can make per week 16 months from now.

And that's the demand before they're actually trying to sell the thing and before its in real-life use with word-of-mouth sales happening.



So they don't need to sell more 3s.

They're already going to sell more than they can make for at least the next 18-24 months based on the #s Elon stated.


The S however they can make more than they sell now. Hence why they need to keep the S looking "worth it" compared to the 3.

 

[JeffK]

Since existing pricing and options are generally known the reservation #s are fairly solid by now- here's what Tesla has actually said-

Elon said recently "Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year (2018)"

He also said there are 455,000 net reservations.

He also said new orders have been 1800 per day since the last reveal. Which is 12,600 per week. More than they project they can make per week 16 months from now.

And that's the demand before they're actually trying to sell the thing and before its in real-life use with word-of-mouth sales happening.

So they don't need to sell more 3s.
They're already going to sell more than they can make for at least the next 18-24 months based on the #s Elon stated.
The S however they can make more than they sell now. Hence why they need to keep the S looking "worth it" compared to the 3.

You're still missing my point.

Base Model 3 != Model 3 plus upgrades.
Model 3 reservations != Model 3 sales
Elon said 1800 net reservations per day meaning there's attrition of reservation holders for various reasons.

Allowing a much faster AWD model will be fantastic for everyone.

 

[Knightshade]

You're still missing my point.

No, I'm pointing out your point...isn't one.

Base Model 3 != Model 3 plus upgrades.

Except the launch model already requires the most expensive upgrades. The base won't be available until months after that.

If you want one this year (or early next year) you don't get a choice about upgrading with LR and premium.

Model 3 reservations != Model 3 sales

Probably not 1:1, but probably pretty close- given most of the info that would cause someone to cancel is already available.

There'll be cases where someone loses a job or something before their order comes up... but it's not like otherwise it's likely people will sit on the $1000 they gave Tesla for another 6 months for no reason and then magically say "Eh, nevermind"

hence why the net reservations # being over 450,000 after the last reveal was such a big deal.

Vast majority of folks when they got the details on options/pricing kept their reservations as they intend to buy the car.

Elon said 1800 net reservations per day meaning there's attrition of reservation holders for various reasons.

1800 net means the # of reservations is going up by a larger number than they can build by the end of 2018

If that stayed steady it means they would literally never catch up with demand. Without doing any actual selling.

hence, again, why they don't need to 'sell' the 3 right now. They won't catch up to demand for 18-24 months minimum even if that 1800 drops off the table soon. And it's more likely to go up if the car hits the real public and is a hit.


The S however could use more sales. That's the entire point of the thread

Tesla upgrades base S performance to separate it further from the 3 and support S sales.

Allowing a much faster AWD model will be fantastic for everyone.

The AWD model won't be much faster. Maybe 0.1 faster- which is what adding it to the S75 gets you.

The cars in this range don't appear to be especially traction limited in the first place performance-wise.

Base AWD sales will mainly be for folks where there's snow



Now, the Performance model, that's another story.

But that's even further off than the AWD one, per Elon, and don't expect P100D numbers from it. The P100D remains the flagship sedan.

 

[JeffK]

The S however could use more sales. That's the entire point of the thread

No, the point of this thread is that Model 3 performance could possibly be upgraded by software after purchase. Tesla's statements about the EPA docs support this or it supports that the power is less than 258 HP. Take your pick.