[Speculation] Model S Update — 200 kW Supercharging Speeds?

[ForeverFree]

We are a joyously two-Tesla family: S85D and 3LR.

Trying to decide among three options, once we’re able to turn our second Model 3 reservation into an AWD:

Two Model 3s. Zero-cost trade of S85D —> 3LRD. Long-distance road trips = tightly packing.

3LRD + S100D. Cost = $50K. Gives us long-distance road trip car.

3LRD + S85D. Cost = near zero. Gives size, comfort, looks of S ... but Model 3 still the road trip car.
​

Option 2 appeals. However ...

Second-biggest worry about purchasing new S100D is possible S110D (370 miles) or S120D (400 miles) within a year, through incorporation of 2170 batteries.

Biggest worry is possible S revision with 200 kW Supercharging. 200 kW Superchargers are coming, and EPA filing shows Model 3 battery architecture can already handle this charging speed.

Range and charging speed matter more to us than they do to many others, because we use a bike rack in the summer that cuts range roughly 30%.

And, even without the bikes, we’ve noticed a surprisingly large travel-time reduction going from S85D —> 3LR. Somewhat longer range. And decidedly-faster Supercharging (on a miles added per hour basis, due to Model 3’s much lower per-mile energy usage). Our five and one-half hour S85D trip to Mammoth is now back down to ICE-ish times well under five hours.

What our other folks’ thoughts re the imminence of faster Model S Supercharging ability? If we do splurge on a new 100D, we’ll want to keep it for several years.

 

[sammyfan711]

I have the exact same concern with the 200kw (I think it was actually 220kw on the epa docs) charge rate - personally I wouldn’t buy another S until they move to the 2170 cells.

I think you’re in a good position to stand pat with the current Teslas until at least “late summer” when gen 3 superchargers are announced - there is at least a chance that we get 2170 cells in the legacy cars.

If not I would wait until next year, a refresh has to come at some point.

Plus by then there will be more model 3 options as well.

 

[NeverFollow]

Two Model 3s. Zero-cost trade of S85D —> 3LRD. Long-distance road trips = tightly packing.

3LRD + S100D. Cost = $50K. Gives us long-distance road trip car.

3LRD + S85D. Cost = near zero. Gives size, comfort, looks of S ... but Model 3 still the road trip car.

It depend of how many people will be travelling, but if you are looking for long-distance road trip,
the Model S would be the most comfortable, in particular the back seat,
and the Model S has a larger and more practical trunk.

Also you might prefer the Model 3 air suspension to the Model 3 coils.

Range and charging speed matter more to us than they do to many others,
because we use a bike rack in the summer that cuts range roughly 30%.

Charging speed is certainly best with the Model S.

About the 30% loss, for long trips, you should consider putting the bikes inside the car,
or add a hitch under the back bumper and use a hitch-mounted bike rack.

Range and charging speed matter more to us than they do to many others,
because we use a bike rack in the summer that cuts range roughly 30%.

What type of roof do you have on your Model S and what kind of bike rack do you use?
I don't think there is any bike rack available for the Model 3, unless you use a bike suction rooftop carrier type.

I have a roof bike rack, but for long journey I prefer put the bikes into the trunk and use the roof rack only for local day trips.
Also the Model S hatch back is way more practical if you have more than one bicycle.

I general I prefer keeping my bikes inside the car and covered with black towels,
if I need to park the car in the street when doing some errands.

Second-biggest worry about purchasing new S100D is possible S110D (370 miles) or S120D (400 miles) within a year,
through incorporation of 2170 batteries.

Biggest worry is possible S revision with 200 kW Supercharging. 200 kW Superchargers are coming,
and EPA filing shows Model 3 battery architecture can already handle this charging speed.

About the 2170 batteries and 120 kWh, I don't think there will be any changes soon, because
the Reno battery factory is already at full capacity with the Model 3, Model Y (?) and Semi-Truck.

Also there is no real competition, since the Porsche Mission-e battery size will be 95 kWh.

We are a joyously two-Tesla family: S85D and 3LR.

I think you have already an excellent combination. Depending how old is your S85D,
I would keep the S85D until further Model S changes,
unless you think that the S100D would really save a lot of time (?).

If you can, wait until the Model Y announcement before getting a new Model 3LRD,
especially if you carry bicycles, because of the more practical trunk.

A Model Y100D with air suspension would certainly be my best choice, but you have to wait at least until 2020.

The Jaguar E-Pace would be then a possible competitor, except for the not matching Tesla supercharger network.

 

[xyeahtony]

200kw charge rate on the Model S would require them changing the battery pack and its chemistry, which they are not doing right now. Why fix something that isn't broken? Tesla is bleeding cash like crazy so they are focused on the 3.

 

[ucmndd]

I think those waiting for significant changes to the S/X are gonna be waiting a long time.

 

[Nda721]

Can the current superchargers be able to manage the higher speeds? Specifically, the cables carrying the current?
Also, if they can increase the speeds with the current hardware it would really improve the speed for all the model 3s. It would essentially resolve the potential number of new vehicles on the road with faster speeds.

 

[boonedocks]

I’ll be happy if the new superchargers just provide a full charge to 2 simultaneous cars. Now it kinda stinks if you are on a trip and have to charge next to another car sharing a single charger. ie 1A / 2A

 

[miemrich]

I’ll be happy if the new superchargers just provide a full charge to 2 simultaneous cars. Now it kinda stinks if you are on a trip and have to charge next to another car sharing a single charger. ie 1A / 2A

You share 1A + 1B, 2A + 2B, but not 1A with 2A.

 

[conman]

Can the current superchargers be able to manage the higher speeds? Specifically, the cables carrying the current?.

I read somewhere that the cables are rated to 340A, which means the current superchargers could not provide 200kW.

 

[conman]

Biggest worry is possible S revision with 200 kW Supercharging. 200 kW Superchargers are coming, and EPA filing shows Model 3 battery architecture can already handle this charging speed.

Purely my speculation but I believe the S can be made to support 200kW as well. It will just have to be adjusted in software to taper the way the current charging does with the existing 120kW limit. On my P100 it can only provide 120 kW up to about 63% capacity and then starts tapering. A 200kW charger will probably start tapering off somewhere around the 50% capacity, but this will at least mean 200kW between about 15 and 50%.

 

[Bebop]

If increase of speed is true, I hope there will be options to choose from, from inside the car. Maybe a "slow" and "fast" option at a supercharger. Depending on my travel situation will depend on which option I choose.

 

[brkaus]

If increase of speed is true, I hope there will be options to choose from, from inside the car. Maybe a "slow" and "fast" option at a supercharger. Depending on my travel situation will depend on which option I choose.

Always fast to free up supercharger spots.

 

[Nda721]

Always fast to free up supercharger spots.

Exactly,I wish I would pull up and find someone sipping their Coco while "slow" supercharging

 

[Bebop]

Always fast to free up supercharger spots.

Maybe I want to get some food and I don't want to rush eating. So I'll select "slow" charging (as is today).

Maybe I want to get out of there and move on as quickly as possible. So I'll go with fast charging.

Plus most people are going to want to fast charge anyways, so I don't see the issue in that. I don't think everyone wants to slow charge.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

200kw charge rate on the Model S would require them changing the battery pack and its chemistry, which they are not doing right now. Why fix something that isn't broken? Tesla is bleeding cash like crazy so they are focused on the 3.

Tesla has a CEO who, because he knows nothing about manufacturing and doesn't listen to his own people, is making very expensive mistakes and wasting investor money. He makes decisions about how his cars will be manufactured based on some futuristic comic book fantasy in his head rather than tried-and-true methods that work. He requires useless, unneeded features in his cars that he later regrets for making things too complicated. Everything he does is 10x more complicated than it needs to be, is 5x more expensive, and takes twice as long.

The Model S value proposition, such that it is, broke the day Model 3 shipped. Model S/X shipments are flat year-over-year and not growing. If Model S doesn't get a significant re-do in the next year, my bet is that it will be discontinued.

 

[xyeahtony]

Tesla has a CEO who, because he knows nothing about manufacturing and doesn't listen to his own people, is making very expensive mistakes and wasting investor money. He makes decisions about how his cars will be manufactured based on some futuristic comic book fantasy in his head rather than tried-and-true methods that work. He requires useless, unneeded features in his cars that he later regrets for making things too complicated. Everything he does is 10x more complicated than it needs to be, is 5x more expensive, and takes twice as long.

The Model S value proposition, such that it is, broke the day Model 3 shipped. Model S/X shipments are flat year-over-year and not growing. If Model S doesn't get a significant re-do in the next year, my bet is that it will be discontinued.

What on earth are you talking about...? We all know you are not Tesla's biggest fan right now, but lets keep things factual.

Q42017 Model S Deliveries: 15,200. Model X Deliveries: 13,120. That's a 27% increase over Q42016, and 9% increase over Q32017.

Tesla Q4 Numbers — Highest Sales Ever, 1,550 Model 3 Deliveries | CleanTechnica

 

[AmpedRealtor]

What on earth are you talking about...? We all know you are not Tesla's biggest fan right now, but lets keep things factual.

Q42017 Model S Deliveries: 15,200. Model X Deliveries: 13,120. That's a 27% increase over Q42016, and 9% increase over Q32017.

Tesla Q4 Numbers — Highest Sales Ever, 1,550 Model 3 Deliveries | CleanTechnica

I meant to say versus previous quarter, not YOY. Shipments in Q1 2018 were essentially flat versus previous quarter. I'm very much a Tesla fan, but being a fan of a brand or product doesn't render one completely blind and stupid to the realities that are occurring.

 

[jeffro01]

Tesla has a CEO who, because he knows nothing about manufacturing and doesn't listen to his own people, is making very expensive mistakes and wasting investor money. He makes decisions about how his cars will be manufactured based on some futuristic comic book fantasy in his head rather than tried-and-true methods that work. He requires useless, unneeded features in his cars that he later regrets for making things too complicated. Everything he does is 10x more complicated than it needs to be, is 5x more expensive, and takes twice as long.

The Model S value proposition, such that it is, broke the day Model 3 shipped. Model S/X shipments are flat year-over-year and not growing. If Model S doesn't get a significant re-do in the next year, my bet is that it will be discontinued.

I don't know where on the doll Elon touched you but come on... Like I said in another thread, you've really gone off the deep end even beyond your usual anti-Tesla sentiment...

Jeff

 

[ucmndd]

Maybe I want to get some food and I don't want to rush eating. So I'll select "slow" charging (as is today).

Your desire to not rush your meal or get up in the middle to move your car does not take priority over freeing up a charging spot for another owner that needs to actually charge. Without exception.

 

[sandpiper]

200kw charge rate on the Model S would require them changing the battery pack and its chemistry, which they are not doing right now. Why fix something that isn't broken? Tesla is bleeding cash like crazy so they are focused on the 3.

There are a few things:

1. I suspect that there are a bunch of people (like me) who are waiting on the updated S before trading in. Given the margins on the S, it would definitely be a cash positive effort.

2. Companies are not like people; they can focus on more than one thing. The engineers working on design of new models are not the same ones that work on manufacturing issues. Those are two different skill sets.

3. There are a bunch of things on the 3 that are better than on the S, and with the new performance 3, cannibalization will be an increasing issue:
- idiosyncratic interior, no pockets, hack-on console, little creature comforts, etc....
- no interior camera (which is not used on the 3, but I suspect will be turned on when the S has it as well)
- large charge port, which I'm convinced is there two support dual charge plugs - Tesla and CCS
- permanent magnet motor -> slightly improved efficiency
- yes, battery tech

4. I'm quite convinced that the current 3 is software hobbled, just to avoid damaging the S sales. The 0-60 times being offered for the 3 strike me to be "selected" as slow enough not to impinge on P100D turf. But I'd bet that it's capable of significantly better. The same applies with the supercharging. I'll bet that the 3 can take more than it's set to take right now.

5. And finally, the upcoming Porsche EV will definitely pull sales from the S. I'd consider it, except for the supercharger issue (being addressed). And a Porsche is too much of a status vehicle for me to drive daily. That's not an issue for the S.

I think Tesla will start to feel pain if there's no new S by winter. I suspect that the design and much of the tooling for the new S is ready to go, but they're waiting to hit some milestones on the 3 line (rate and cost) before scheduling the downtime to do the S upgrade.