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[Speculation] Model S Update — 200 kW Supercharging Speeds?

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by ForeverFree, May 28, 2018.

  1. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    There is some truth to this. But, on the other side, if he stuck to tried and true methods, and if he listened to everything that the experts say, the Model S would still be on the drawing board. For better or worse, there are two sides to every coin.

    Elon is learning. The design of the 3 is much more manufacturing friendly that the S or X. And future cars will be better yet.
     
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  2. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    #22 AmpedRealtor, May 31, 2018
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
    Model X production problems were squarely on Elon due to his insistence that the car have falcon doors instead of something more reasonable and less complex. I talk with Model X owners all the time who tell me their X is a service nightmare because of those doors. When your goal is to produce and sell cars, and with the world watching, you don't stupidly make them so hard to manufacture. This Elon has already admitted, and then stated the Model 3 would be far less complex.

    After promising to investors that the Model 3 will be simplified, less complex, and straightforward to manufacture, he goes on CBS and says that the Model 3 delays were due to the car being too complex. Hello Elon, is anyone home?

    Then Elon decides that he is going to re-invent the modern vehicle production line by making it all robotic instead of using actual people like other manufacturers. He then publicly admits his mistake, and spends what is probably tens of millions of dollars on a new production line that he has flown in from Europe. Hubris can be quite expensive.

    Then there are all the high profile departures, especially from the AP team. This is the same team that has expressed serious concerns to Musk about the safety of the system and lack of driver monitoring. The list of screw ups goes on and on. When the media and investors call him out on it, he goes on Trump-like twitter tirades that further damage his credibility.

    I will always criticize Tesla and Musk where they deserve it, and call what I see for what it is. I am not blinded like many here seem to be. The blind devotion to all things Musk strikes me as odd behavior for otherwise intelligent people. I'm speaking generally now, not specifically about you.

    Listening to people when and where it makes sense, and using tried-and-true design and manufacturing techniques to get a quality product out the door quickly would not preclude the Model S and X from making it off the drawing boards. There is a false equivalency here, in my opinion.

    Tesla clearly cannot afford to subsidize Elon's learning curve. It may be time for a new CEO, or at least a COO who can get things done. It's certainly easier to replicate existing manufacturing methods used by other car makers than it is to invent a new paradigm. Tesla needs core manufacturing competence, something it very sorely lacks.
     
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  3. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    It's easy to say this as an armchair critic. SpaceX would not be where there are if they had not upended the historical space industry manufacturing process.

    Elon is a human being. He's been inundated with people telling him that he can't do something and then he's successfully done it. He's been right a lot and wrong sometimes.

    Tesla actually does have a lot of good manufacturing people - that have some from other automakers. They've pushed the envelope on what's practical and have screwed some things up. And I'm will to give them some leeway as long as they're learning. They are.

    And if you think that everything runs smoothly and systematically inside the other automakers, then you've never been there. It's madness. But Tesla is more tightly scrutinized.
     
  4. PhaseWhite

    PhaseWhite Member

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    Tesla has stated in their earnings call that they are capacity constrained to 100k S/X based on contracts with Panasonic for batteries. So their focus will be on margin improvements to try to get the most bang for their buck out of those 100k cars. I too want to see more significant Model S updates but it just doesn't make sense for them right now since they can't produce enough Model 3 packs using the 2170's yet. Perhaps next year if Model 3 pack production is satisfied we could see a new S/X refresh with 2170s. This will likely depend on the existing contract terms with Panasonic as well.

    In reality I think Tesla could sell more S/X in 2018 if they could make more. Especially once the 200,000th car is sold. There will be a mad rush for everyone to get their orders in before the full credit expires. Expect to see all available inventory get bought up again once we hit July.
     
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  5. ucmndd

    ucmndd Active Member

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    Good point. I think the impending 200k delivery on July 1 and subsequent 6 month dash for the full tax credit factors strongly into Elon’s proclamation that Tesla will be profitable the latter half of the year.
     
  6. PhaseWhite

    PhaseWhite Member

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    Not to mention that Tesla will probably stockpile a bunch of Model 3s produced Q2 for delivery in Q3. Q2 financials will look worse than expected, while Q3 will be a blowout (If they can manage the logistics to get them all delivered).
     
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  7. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    They can change the priority for deliveries - and sell more cars outside of the US in Q2 (looks like they shipped a lot of Model 3's to Canada0.
     
  8. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    Talks of replacing Elon are hilarious, I remember when they tried to do that with Steve Jobs at Apple and look what happened there.
     

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