I'm quite sure that Tesla doesn't care a whole lot. It's a bloody plug. The form is far less important than the number of them. The battle is already over, but the Tesla plug will most assuredly die.
I'm quite sure that Tesla doesn't care a whole lot. It's a bloody plug. The form is far less important than the number of them. The battle is already over, but the Tesla plug will most assuredly die.
mutle
Member
Strange that you would say that as CCS actually adds to the existing Type-1 and Type-2 standards.
Sure, it's not CHAdeMO, but back then CHAdeMO was completely proprietary technology by Tepco (yes, the same company that runs the Fukushima plant). They only opened the standard after CCS was finalised. So there was no open DC charging standard at that time.
I'm not quite so sure, and I believe that if you're right your analysis is still off.
Make no mistake, I do agree that Tesla needs to integrate into the coming CCS network. Its a win-win for Tesla, as it only makes their position in the EV market stronger. What remains to be seen is whether CCS overtakes Tesla's (like VHS vs Beta), or whether it compliments Tesla (like the Shell station vs the Chevron station). I bet the later.
IMHO, the thing that will kill the Tesla plug is the technical limitation of the Tesla plug itself and explicitly NOT because the interconnect configuration is OBE by an expanding CCS network. We've been told the Tesla plug has plenty of capacity for higher rates in the future. We've also seen evidence that suggests the the plug-cable assemblies might not be up to the task of handling even the current supercharger network capability. Which is correct:The claim, or the circumstantial evidence to the contrary? It pains me to say, but I bet the later. As such, if Tesla plug v1.X cannot handle 350kw or whatever CCS claims at the time (and assuming CCS claims translate to legit real world use), its probably smart for Tesla to switch to CCS and figure out how to backward-compatible legacy Teslas instead of white page Tesla plug 2.0.
Timeframe on that is 20+ years, mind.
For that foreseeable future, the supercharger network and thus the Tesla interconnect configuration will be a competitive advantage for Tesla:
--For many years to come--over 10 at least--the CCS network will not have the coverage of the supercharger network. CCS is clearly many years behind right now, and Tesla is not just continuing, but accelerating the supercharging network buildout. That's terrible news for non-Tesla automakers that will rely on the CCS network to support their products. Tesla has already sucked up most of the high-rent early adopters; most of the potential early adopters who can't stomach a $100k car are signed up for M3. As such, I contest that most of the folks explicitly willing to make compromises to drive an EV already have a date to the dance. That means most [of the rest of] future EV owners are going to be much more demanding in functionality comparisons to their outgoing ICE and much more critical about things like inconvenient road tripping. And that means those future EV owners [not married to a particular auto manufacturer] are going to, at a minimum, seriously consider Tesla over other manufactures because of its superior charging network.
--Partially because of above, (and partially because of the overall cost advantage Tesla has and will have in batteries and thus overall cost, and partially because of Tesla's general commitment to EVs instead of typically reluctant compliance from other OEMs), Tesla will be the majority of long range EVs on the road for many years to come. This reality will suppress demand on the CCS network, which will most likely manifest as a slower-than-planned rollout. It may even result in reallocation of the network's funds, further delaying the speed and/or scope of the buildout. There's no way to get around it--the short and even mid term outlook for non-Tesla long range EVs is bleak. Everyone's talking about building an EV. Most are not talking about doing so in high volumes.
--Tesla says the supercharger network will not become a profit center. I believe them; I believe Tesla will be satisfied with a self-sustaining network. Conversely, whoever operates the CCS network will assuredly do so with some kind of profit motives. This means that even when the CCS network has full coverage the supercharger network will still be cheaper for its users. As the EV fleet drives down into the bell curve of affordability, total cost of ownership will be an even more important aspect to consumerism than it is now and thus the supercharger network will become even more attractive than the CCS network.
I'm not so sure.
I was pretty well in the HD DVD vs. Blu-ray fight and it keeps surprising me how little, in the end, it helps being early or even gathering industry support, if at some point the combined weight of the world simply turns against you. Toshiba got the message in a rather brutal way. Betamax, Memory Stick etc. are more such examples, where going it alone will not work out for you.
Apple, of course, is an exception with Lightning and the Dock Connector before that. But the other examples of one company driven "standards" are far bleaker. Granted, if something can be solved with an adapter (unlike in the case of media discs) that might help Tesla out, but there is bound to be a moment where the tide turns. And when the tide turns, boy, will it turn. Because what everyone else is doing is (likely) CCS, and Tesla will be alone with their own connector, and not even globally with that. Europe already has Mennekes which is basically part of CCS. And soon Superchargers will be forced by law to offer full CCS in the EU.
So, even though now it might even look like that with Model 3 and everyone else fidgeting, that Tesla connector is the de facto standard, there is no adoption of it by anyone else, no widespread potential for adoption by anyone else and no visible efforts towards that. And that's why IMO it has already lost the game, if it ever was playing in the first place. Unless one believes Tesla will own the entire BEV market in the long run (i.e. destroy all the automotive giants that are driving competing standards), or that they manage (or even want) to make the market turn to their connector, the writing is obviously on the wall.
CHAdeMO might remain in some regional capacity and the Tesla connector will be used in some manner for years, but already CCS has won the connector war, even though it might look otherwise in stats. People who know me I dislike calling something, because anything can change and things are not black and white, but really... there is no contest any more in my mind. Tesla may have the most numbers behind their connector currently, but they lack the momentum - and I might add, it seems, the desire too - to overcome the combined weight of the automotive world crashing on their connector.
Instead, I fully expect Tesla to adapt to it, rather than fight this. Whether or not adapting to CCS starts with Model 3 Day 1 or at some later date, remains to be seen.
There are two things against this line of thinking:
1) When the rest of the world really start to act on EVs, and it certainly looks like they will, their progress will eventually be exponential. When the market is there, the expansion of charging infrastructure will have not only the combined might of the free market, but that of governments behind it - and they will not be building company-specific chargers. CCS seems to have this momentum. In the end, whatever Superchargers now offer, even if Tesla doubles or quadruples them, is peanuts compared to what the market and governments can do when they decide to move on this.
2) You are assuming Tesla will fight this, instead of embracing it. If Tesla decides to embrace CCS, it might well be Tesla who will convert all those Superchargers to CCS. This will be the Toshiba starts making Blu-ray players moment. Now, if Tesla does it, they will of course have to figure out a way to do that in a backwards compatible manner. Maybe they will put two cables into each stall. Wouldn't seem too complicated, Tesla may be forced to do exactly that in Europe by law anyway. One cable hanging from both sides of a stall. And/or maybe they will come out with an adapter (and convince CCS's parent organization to support it because Tesla matters to them).
MikeBur
ManualPilot
Was unaware Superchargers need to support CCS (haven't read entire thread, though is there a source for this?), though this would be pretty significant and would facilitate the need for change. IMO, Makes sense for TM to change charge port in EU on car, and supercharger cables, though not convinced they will allow other EVs to use supercharger network due to increased wait time and wear on infrastructure.
In US, I wouldn't guess what will emerge, or in what timeframe, though completely agree it's often not the case than the superior standard wins - rather it's the most convenient. This doesn't mean it is the open standard either, e.g. DirectX for games is a proprietary "de facto" standard, not open. I would expect there's work on a ccs adapter well underway, and that would suffice for many in the interim.
@MikeBur Actually, fair point, it is possible I mis-remember a bit. It may have been some EU member starts that have that particular legislation. I was recalling Germany and I'd have to check if that really happened or not:
German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.
In addition, in all of EU, government funded charging stations will need CCS and Type 2 from November 18, 2017 onwards. But that was not the point I was referring to...
German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.
In addition, in all of EU, government funded charging stations will need CCS and Type 2 from November 18, 2017 onwards. But that was not the point I was referring to...
The answer to this is Tesla already uses Mennekes in the EU and other regions. So yes they will be using a different plug for Model 3 in regions that require it
That is the easy part, IMO.
More interesting is how will Tesla handle non-Mennekes markets.
And will any change start with Model 3 Day 1... all Q3 Teslas with new charging ports or somesuch?
And how will they handle backwards compatibility... Mennekes/CCS is easy there (even CCS Tesla could use current Superchargers as is), but the proprietary connector, if swapped to CCS, would require a CCS to Tesla adapter until Superchargers get upgraded...
Apparently Spain also requires CCS in all charging stations starting in November 2017?
German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.
If the noose is tighthening and Model 3 coming out around this timeframe, it would certainly make sense for Tesla to use the Model 3 launch as the point of CCS adoption starting. Assuming they have a plan ready.
If they do not have a plan ready, things might get delayed, of course... and of course there still remains the chance that Tesla will not adopt CCS in non-EU markets for a long time...
German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.
If the noose is tighthening and Model 3 coming out around this timeframe, it would certainly make sense for Tesla to use the Model 3 launch as the point of CCS adoption starting. Assuming they have a plan ready.
If they do not have a plan ready, things might get delayed, of course... and of course there still remains the chance that Tesla will not adopt CCS in non-EU markets for a long time...
The thing with requiring CCS at every fast charge site can not be applied to private property.
It can be applied to public service. Like a soda machine. If you can get service with credit card,
coins etc. it is "for everybody". But Tesla SC-s are not for everybody. Exclusive access only. And no
way to get access.
It can be applied to public service. Like a soda machine. If you can get service with credit card,
coins etc. it is "for everybody". But Tesla SC-s are not for everybody. Exclusive access only. And no
way to get access.
To see where this is all heading, go to plugshare.com, filter for only CCS chargers and look at California. Then realize that Tesla, already today, has not been able to keep building Superchargers fast enough in southern CA (lineups are routine). The VW scandal money will all go towards CCS. The Bolt is the first non-Tesla long range car, but there are many more coming out in the next two years. They will all support CCS.
The only hope Tesla had was to keep ahead of the demand curve for Supercharging, which they did not do, and to license the network to cars like the Bolt, which they again, did not do.
Maybe, just maybe if they actually build a lot more Superchargers very soon, instead of just promising to do so, and announce licensing deals for Supercharger access, they can keep the Tesla standard alive. But I have seen zero evidence of either happening.
The only hope Tesla had was to keep ahead of the demand curve for Supercharging, which they did not do, and to license the network to cars like the Bolt, which they again, did not do.
Maybe, just maybe if they actually build a lot more Superchargers very soon, instead of just promising to do so, and announce licensing deals for Supercharger access, they can keep the Tesla standard alive. But I have seen zero evidence of either happening.
I agree.
The point is... who cares what type of plug we use? I just want a single standard that will be capable of handling the new very high power chargers.
I don't want to have to worry about it any more than I used to worry about what brand of gas station I was pulling into. If Tesla moves onto CCS, the battle will end more quickly. And that's better for the whole industry.
timk225
Active Member
If your EV has a CCS charging plug, can you go to a J1772 charger and plug the J1772 into the CCS connector? It looks like that can work.
Yes, it was designed to be backward compatible like that. That's why it is called a Combo Charging System.
Actually, this is very likely not true, though you are right it is possible EU's influence on this is so far limited to publicly funded EV chargers. It is my understanding that certain countries already place or plan to place limitations on what kind of plugs can be used in EV charging, new private installations included. Germany? Spain?
EV charging stations require planning, building, electrical etc. permissions and jurisdictions certainly can and do place limitations - for sake of the the public/common good - on what kind of electrical installations can be used. So, most definitely Tesla's connectors can be legislated at least in Europe where commonly and traditionally the governments have had a strong hold on such things...
Will it be legislated and how commonly, is harder to say. For electrical waste purposes EU tried to legislate even what kind of charging plugs all mobile phones should have, but that effort was eventually neutered in the EU parliament due to the strong Apple lobby...
Yes, and the same in Europe with the Mennekes plug EU AC chargers and Tesla cars use (J1772 is Type 1, Mennekes is Type 2, very similar) and CCS "Type 2"...
In Europe the situation for Tesla is further simplified by the fact that Tesla's here use the Mennekes in the car and so all Tesla charger cables here have that as well. So if a Tesla were to get a CCS plug in Europe instead of Mennekes, the current Euro Superchargers could still be used, and AC charging stations as is, existing Tesla Mobile Connectors and Wall Connectors also, as they all use Mennekes plug (the top part of CCS here), in addition to CCS of course...
If in the U.S. Tesla cars got CCS ports (the "Type 1" related variant of it), J1772 AC charging stations could be used as is on that, plus CCS. What would have to be solved, then, though is how current Tesla Mobile Connectors, Wall Connectors and Superchargers would connect to that in the U.S. (and other markets that use the Tesla connector). An adapter? By having two charge ports in the car?
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I have tried to be on top of this topic, but I may be a bit out of date with the latest development, but I try here to sum up what I have found out. Please correct me if anyone knows more about this, or if I remember wrong - and I think all I know is in that other thread that was linked to earlier.
The EU-directive talks about "all public accessible charging locations". How this should be interpreted in the law text is up for discussion. But Spain, who was the first to implement this law, interpreted it quite literary when they wrote it there, but have given Tesla an exempt until the EU directive has to be in effect later this year. In Germany the government also interpreted it quite literary, but it did not pass unmodified, and the version of that law that was accepted had a more loose interpretation of that part, so Tesla *may* get around it in most places where it has/will get a supercharging location. I have not heard/read anything on how this is/will be incorporated in other countries laws.
To get around the law as it is in Spain the superchargers - as is my understanding - have to be placed inside a fenced and locked location that is open just to Tesla cars? Or Tesla employees? It is not enough that it is a private charger on private ground and not got any financing from EU or the government. If I did remember correct about what happed in Germany, that may get Spain to updates it's law to get the same interpretation. But I have not heard anything about that has happened yet. It may also influence how other countries in EU/EEA will write/has written? their laws.
But anyway how this laws is/will be written, I think it is wise for Tesla to act as if they will be forced to install CCS plugs at the superchargers. How/if they will have to give all cars an undiscriminating ad hock payment access (as dictated by the EU directive) or not is something they may decide later when the law is in effect in all/most of EU/EEA.
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