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Speculation on 200,000th Vehicle

ColoradoDave

Member
May 5, 2018
35
9
80920
Hi, I am new to this group, anxiously awaiting an invitation. what is the current speculation regarding when Tesla will hit the 200K mark in the US? I'm trying to guess what incentives may still exist when I get an invite. A salesman kind of implied today that they already hit the number. Thanks.
 

MistaEV

Member
Apr 6, 2018
90
55
East Coast
The current speculation is that Tesla is trying to make sure the most amount of people can get the max credit by shipping cars to Canada. I do not know if this is officially the stance, but it sounds good.
 
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TaoJones

Beyond Driven
Nov 10, 2014
3,064
2,857
The Americas
Q3, week 1. Same as it ever was.

Look for an uptick in deliveries to Canada in particular in this quarter to facilitate the simple objective of having as much of a full half-year to produce full tax credit-eligible vehicles before the credit is halved, and then halved again before it goes away completely at the federal level.

Note the creeping erosion of state-level incentives - e.g., income restrictions, quantity limits, and of course the ownership time threshold for California's $2500 rebate.
 

trevorc

Member
May 3, 2018
74
65
Niagara
Q3, week 1. Same as it ever was.

Look for an uptick in deliveries to Canada in particular in this quarter to facilitate the simple objective of having as much of a full half-year to produce full tax credit-eligible vehicles before the credit is halved, and then halved again before it goes away completely at the federal level.

It does look like this is the strategy - I’m a perfect example. In a normal priority world I’d be waiting quite a while longer since I only reserved April 19, 2017. However, I got an invite and configured April 26th and found a VIN on my account when I woke up yesterday morning. So I’m..er.. very grateful for the US tax credit situation!
 

Legolas

Member
Apr 1, 2016
48
14
San Jose, CA
Q3, week 1. Same as it ever was.

Look for an uptick in deliveries to Canada in particular in this quarter to facilitate the simple objective of having as much of a full half-year to produce full tax credit-eligible vehicles before the credit is halved, and then halved again before it goes away completely at the federal level.

Note the creeping erosion of state-level incentives - e.g., income restrictions, quantity limits, and of course the ownership time threshold for California's $2500 rebate.

Assuming 200,000 US delivery hits in Q3W1 (Week-1/Jul'18 ?), then all deliveries until 31/Dec/18 are eligible for $7500 federal rebate? Given, the current delivery of < 2months from config, I want to see if I should wait for the White/cream interior option. The SR availability will be a big bonus, I really don't need LR.
 

animorph

Active Member
Apr 1, 2016
2,149
1,546
Scottsdale, AZ
Assuming 200,000 US delivery hits in Q3W1 (Week-1/Jul'18 ?), then all deliveries until 31/Dec/18 are eligible for $7500 federal rebate? Given, the current delivery of < 2months from config, I want to see if I should wait for the White/cream interior option. The SR availability will be a big bonus, I really don't need LR.

The interior option should be (I hope) clear by the end of the week per Elon's tweets. No need to sweat about it until then. I wouldn't bet on anyone getting SR with a full rebate, but a partial rebate should be possible. Still much cheaper than an LR + full rebate now, though the full rebate makes the LR/SR cost comparison a little better.

We're hoping for white interior and I think we'll put up with LR + full rebate to get the car sooner.
 

Legolas

Member
Apr 1, 2016
48
14
San Jose, CA
The interior option should be (I hope) clear by the end of the week per Elon's tweets. No need to sweat about it until then. I wouldn't bet on anyone getting SR with a full rebate, but a partial rebate should be possible. Still much cheaper than an LR + full rebate now, though the full rebate makes the LR/SR cost comparison a little better.

We're hoping for white interior and I think we'll put up with LR + full rebate to get the car sooner.

Can you kindly point me to the tweet/discussion you are referring to?
 

viktorleon

Member
Apr 3, 2018
135
38
CenCal
Is it safe to say that us California folks are in the same boat as Washington state residents with their expiring rebates (5/31/2018) and our receding budget for such rebates ($60M)?
 

quantumslip

Member
Mar 3, 2015
484
518
Earth
Can you kindly point me to the tweet/discussion you are referring to?
Elon Musk on Twitter

Tesla will enable orders end of next week for dual motor AWD & performance. Starting production of those in July. Air suspension prob next year.

elon.PNG
 

TaoJones

Beyond Driven
Nov 10, 2014
3,064
2,857
The Americas
Is it safe to say that us California folks are in the same boat as Washington state residents with their expiring rebates (5/31/2018) and our receding budget for such rebates ($60M)?

I expect the CA rebates to resume, but with the income limits, the requirement to keep the vehicle 2.5 years (else pay $ back proportionally), and the limit of 2 per lifetime, fewer people will be eligible.

With certain pandering state legislators whining about giving breaks to the rich via these very modest incentives, combined with the erosion of HOV/toll lane benefits, and the 30% increase in DMV fees that I got from last year to this, I’m pretty much done with CA.

Ironic that the last straw was the state completely screwing up EV adoption at the margins in every possible way.

A sensible highway tax based upon weight and mileage (with caveats) would make too much sense.
 

TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,173
2,911
Los Angeles
Im not following the California discussion... where does it say that the CA EV rebate is expiring 5/31?

The 5/31 date was referring to WA, not CA. However, for CA, the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project has certain amount of funding each year and the rebates will be paid out through the available funding. In the past, the funding has run out mid-year.

If funds are not available at the time of your application, you may still apply and be placed on a rebate waitlist. Rebates for approved applications on the waitlist will be issued if additional funding from the state of California becomes available. If funds are available at the time you submitted your application, your rebate amount will be reserved when you apply online.

While there is always the chance that additional funding will not be approved, the likelyhood is that it will be. If the funding runs out, you just end up waiting longer for the rebate.

Clean Vehicle Rebate Project
 

crackers8199

Active Member
May 31, 2015
1,285
599
lake elsinore, ca
The 5/31 date was referring to WA, not CA. However, for CA, the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project has certain amount of funding each year and the rebates will be paid out through the available funding. In the past, the funding has run out mid-year.

If funds are not available at the time of your application, you may still apply and be placed on a rebate waitlist. Rebates for approved applications on the waitlist will be issued if additional funding from the state of California becomes available. If funds are available at the time you submitted your application, your rebate amount will be reserved when you apply online.

While there is always the chance that additional funding will not be approved, the likelyhood is that it will be. If the funding runs out, you just end up waiting longer for the rebate.

Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

i'll be interested to see if/when they open the ability to get pre-approved up to the entire state (vs currently just san diego county). that should help some of us, if it's any time soon...
 

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