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Speculation on Oil Price Fall

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by malcolm, Dec 16, 2007.

  1. malcolm

    malcolm Active Member

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  2. tonybelding

    tonybelding Active Member

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    I don't think it's going to happen. John McElroy raised some interesting points and brought a historical perspective, but his analysis is flawed.

    The industrialization of China and India is a huge, world-altering development unlike anything that has been seen since the automobile was invented. It's like the rise of the Roman Empire -- that kind of world-altering.

    Also, global warming constrains some of our options. There's huge amounts of oil locked up in tar sands, oil shale, and potentially in coal (with coal-to-liquid schemes). But developing those resources would result in greatly increased global CO2 emissions at a time when nearly everyone believes we should be reducing them. I don't see that happening.

    I think the price of oil is going to be high for the next, say, 20 years. It'll remain high until a substantial portion of the world's transportation has moved to other energy sources, then the price pressure will ease off . But then nobody will care about it the way we do today.
     
  3. BlackbirdHighway

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    If the US goes into a recession next year, that might reduce the price of oil a little, maybe $10 - $15. Demand from India and China will still be there to take up any slack. A number of OPEC countries have recently, or will soon, go into production decline. Internal growth in many of those countries is reducing exports, even if production is not declining.

    It would take a severe world wide recession, maybe even depression, to have any significant reduction in oil prices. If that happens, we won't exactly be rejoicing in the cheap oil anyway.

    I expect US gasoline prices to hit $5 a gallon within 5 years, maybe only 3 years.
     
  4. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Joseph Romm a brilliant green blogger has a good observation on the Alternative -energy backlash.

    Nevermind that we are still buying oil, running out of oil and that the really expensive Windfarms are just as challenged as the really expensive Nuclear power plants, drops in the price in oil and the financial crisis will hurt green energy.

    Tesla's scaleback is used as a prop in the Washington Post story.

    Climate Progress Blog Archive Global recession? Must be time for the media’s alternative-energy backlash
     
  5. graham

    graham Active Member

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    This was a great article.
     
  6. graham

    graham Active Member

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    This will probably be a good thing for alternatively fueled cars. Of course, I can't be happy about it happening, regardless.
     
  7. Bob Smith

    Bob Smith Member

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    I'm all for high oil prices. It's the only way we will be forced to develop the technologies that we need to. More progress was made in the last year of high oil prices than in the century prior.
     
  8. graham

    graham Active Member

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    It is interesting that demand continues to fall even though gas prices have fallen so low. I wonder what the Summer shall bring?
     
  9. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    Gawd, I hope not. That's all we need - more SUVs on the road. Sheesh.
     
  10. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    I want the price down low and lower just long enough to sell my SUV at a huge number!
     
  11. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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    I wonder how much the model designation "FX" played into VFX's decision to buy that particular model in the first place... :wink:
     
  12. Brent

    Brent Member

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    A couple of questions for the Europeans who participate here:

    When oil prices went up so much last year, did you see many people restructuring their lives around higher fuel prices? Was your own daily life impacted materially? For instance, did you change the way you went to work, or how you traveled inter-city?

    I'm curious because I have the sense that Europe, in general, is better able to handle oil shocks than is America. Our transportation infrastructure uses lots of oil, while yours seems to use less, and with the electric train and subway networks, has the possibility of using little at all.
     
  13. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    I suppose I could have got a Ford Ranger
    09F150FX4_badging.jpg
    FX
     
  14. Cobos

    Cobos S60 owner since 2013

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    Well currently our gasoline price for 95 octane (we usually only get 95 or 98 octane) is priced at 10-11kr ($1.59-$1.75) per liter now. When oil was at $150 a barrel it was upto about 14-15kr ($2.23-$2.39). So we are talking about a 30-40% increase in price.
    There was a lot of whining in Norway about that, but it was all silly. If you actually look at the cost of a normal family station wagon like the Ford Mondeo (similar to the Ford Fusion I beleive) with purchase prices of $55 000 -$65 000. Fuel cost is a trivial expense. It comes out at about $2000 per year for that car.

    Did people complain, surely, was there any reason to...not really.

    Cobos from Norway
     

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