Speculation on the reason for the refresh delay

[DarkandStormy]

One theory that's floating out there (but doesn't make sense to me) is that Tesla eventually wants to kill the S&X. Sales have been tanking as 3&Y have largely cannibalized. Of course, what doesn't make sense is they've been teasing Plaid (and now Plaid+) for awhile. Why go through all that plus making the prototypes if you weren't actually going to produce them?

Hearing about the 4680 delays, it seems likely that the stated specs can only be reached with those batteries and those aren't at full scale production yet (sounded like 2022 or even 2023). So, sure, they could pump out a few hundred from their pilot plant, but I think they want to wait until they can produce closer to capacity.

 

[Tigers]

I don't see why Tesla would want to kill the S & X - they are the most desirable cars in the lineup.

However, I would have never purchased one had they not updated the interior, and I think a lot of people were just waiting and waiting and waiting for that to happen. I think S & X are going to be around for a very long time. At least the S.

If Tesla could ever deliver them, they could be a pretty decent size impact on revenue and profit for the next handful of years.

 

[Watts_Up]

One theory that's floating out there (but doesn't make sense to me) is that Tesla eventually wants to kill the S&X. Sales have been tanking as 3&Y have largely cannibalized. Of course, what doesn't make sense is they've been teasing Plaid (and now Plaid+) for awhile. Why go through all that plus making the prototypes if you weren't actually going to produce them?

I don't see Elon Musk driving a Model 3 or a Model Y !!! (even if a Model 3 Plaid+ existed !!!)
Beside any car company needs a flagship to attract customers, and the Model S Tri-Motor Plaid+ is a perfect example, so why to kill it.

Also what car SpaceX would use to carry the NASA cosmonaute crew to the launch pad? How many people over the world saw the iconic cars
with falcon wing and "recycle," "reuse," and "reduce" license plates, so the Model X is going to stay, at least until something similar get build.

I am just surprise that Tesla is so slow at announcing new models using the existing two majors platforms to extend the choice of cars available.
In particular a smaller car similar to the new Ioniq EV 5 or the VW ID.3 and also a minivan or a Pod to be used in particular by the Boring company.

There is the Cybertruck coming, but this would be mostly a truck build for the US market, and would not take over more family and urban cars
like the Model S and the Model X, unless smaller versions get build using the same type of exoskeleton body.

 

[VikH]

I don't see why Tesla would want to kill the S & X - they are the most desirable cars in the lineup.

I don't think the S and X are the "most desirable cars in the lineup." Prior to the refresh they were outdated with old technology. In some ways the refresh is still outdated (tail lights/brake lights) since most of the exterior is the same.

Elon previously said in a 2019 earnings call, "They're (S and X) really niche products. I mean, they're very expensive, made in low volume. To be totally frank, we're continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They're really of minor importance to the future."

Elon Musk: Model S, Model X production continues for 'sentimental reasons' | TechCrunch

Tesla continues to produce the Model S and Model X more for "sentimental reasons than anything else," CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday during a call with

techcrunch.com

 

[Str8down]

I have doubts the biden harris administration are going to let "rich people" get tax credits for cars at this price point given the current political environment.

For that reason I'm not holding out for anything, not to mention it's going to take a year or more to pass.

I've said this before, but I'll say it again. The subsidy it not to make the car more affordable, so it doesn't matter if it's 100k or 20k. The subsidy is to make the purchaser, buying a car in "Price range X" choose electric over ICE. Because electric comes with a whole slew of issues you never had to deal with before, not to mention, an ICE car at the same price of a comparable electric car, is generally MUCH nicer.

 

[Tigers]

I don't think the S and X are the "most desirable cars in the lineup." Prior to the refresh they were outdated with old technology. In some ways the refresh is still outdated (tail lights/brake lights) since most of the exterior is the same.

Elon previously said in a 2019 earnings call, "They're (S and X) really niche products. I mean, they're very expensive, made in low volume. To be totally frank, we're continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They're really of minor importance to the future."

Elon Musk: Model S, Model X production continues for 'sentimental reasons' | TechCrunch

Tesla continues to produce the Model S and Model X more for "sentimental reasons than anything else," CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday during a call with

techcrunch.com

Why do people keep posting this *sugar*?

"Elon said..." OK, great - you know what else Elon did? He spent hundreds of millions updating the tooling and on R&D for the new battery/drivetrains, etc.

So, yes. The S/X totally don't mean anything, right? That's why they spent a handful of the 30 minutes talking about the impact the S/X had (negatively) on the QTR.

The S and X are the most desirable cars in the lineup, especially now. Ask anyone what they would take for the same price: a 3 or an S. Anyone saying a 3 is a liar.

@Str8down Not sure why you are mixing logic with politics. I agree with what your saying, but you missed the point which is "political environment".

 

[Uncle Paul]

People are usually making a mistake when judging Elon by what he says. Better to judge him by what he does.

Elon is a optimist, and often reality gets in the way of his plans. Aspirational deadlines are often extended.

 

[VikH]

Why do people keep posting this *sugar*?

Because it is relevant and it is Musk's mentality on S/X in 2019. Also, where are you getting your numbers of hundreds of millions spent on R&D just for S and X?

Ask anyone what they would take for the same price: a 3 or an S. Anyone saying a 3 is a liar.

Ha. This is simply not true. Many people prefer the 3/Y over the S/X.

 

[Str8down]

Ha. This is simply not true. Many people prefer the 3/Y over the S/X.

There are exceptions to every rule, but for the most part, it's a fair statement. Another way to look at it is, if the 3/Y were the same price as the S/X respectively, the S/X would FAR outsell the 3/Y. And I mean by a margin of like 100:1

 

[eipi10]

There are exceptions to every rule, but for the most part, it's a fair statement. Another way to look at it is, if the 3/Y were the same price as the S/X respectively, the S/X would FAR outsell the 3/Y. And I mean by a margin of like 100:1

It's hard to imagine that, money aside, anyone would choose a car with 449 HP, 353 miles estimated range,15 ft^3 of cargo space, and a less luxurious and spacious interior over a car with 670 HP, 412 miles estimated range, 28 ft^3 of cargo space, and a more luxurious and spacious interior. What am I missing, better handling because it's smaller? It fits in the garage better? Easier to park? But then again, every now and then I come across folks who would rather sit in economy class than business class for some weird reason (e.g., seat too big; closeness of bulkhead makes them feel claustrophobic).

 

[GregE]

I have doubts the biden harris administration are going to let "rich people" get tax credits for cars at this price point given the current political environment.

For that reason I'm not holding out for anything, not to mention it's going to take a year or more to pass.

Why? There were no qualifiers added to the federal tax credit for EVs, they didn't even have to be US made. And the budget has to be passed this year although we don't know at what time the rebate part would go into effect.

 

[VikH]

There are exceptions to every rule, but for the most part, it's a fair statement. Another way to look at it is, if the 3/Y were the same price as the S/X respectively, the S/X would FAR outsell the 3/Y. And I mean by a margin of like 100:1

No. It is not a rule and hasn't been the past few years. Not everyone wants a large sedan or a large SUV (I have owned a Model X for 3.5 years). Many choose the Model 3 over the S because it is a true sports sedan. I am trading in my Model X for a Model Y. I don't like the way the X handles and don't love the FWD. Prior to the refresh the S/X was lacking behind in technology+efficiency.

Also, why are we ignoring cost? Many people can afford the S/X, but prefer the 3/Y because it is a great value.

It's hard to imagine that, money aside, anyone would choose a car with 449 HP, 353 miles estimated range,15 ft^3 of cargo space, and a less luxurious and spacious interior over a car with 670 HP, 412 miles estimated range, 28 ft^3 of cargo space, and a more luxurious and spacious interior. What am I missing, better handling because it's smaller? It fits in the garage better? Easier to park? But then again, every now and then I come across folks who would rather sit in economy class than business class for some weird reason (e.g., seat too big; closeness of bulkhead makes them feel claustrophobic).

Yes, the S/X has a better ride and ventilated seats. Does that make it first class? I have a Model Y and a refresh Model S on order. I am not expecting the S to be significantly more luxurious than the Y. Comparing these cars with economy and first class is an exaggeration.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why do people keep posting this *sugar*?

"Elon said..." OK, great - you know what else Elon did? He spent hundreds of millions updating the tooling and on R&D for the new battery/drivetrains, etc.

So, yes. The S/X totally don't mean anything, right? That's why they spent a handful of the 30 minutes talking about the impact the S/X had (negatively) on the QTR.

The S and X are the most desirable cars in the lineup, especially now. Ask anyone what they would take for the same price: a 3 or an S. Anyone saying a 3 is a liar.

@Str8down Not sure why you are mixing logic with politics. I agree with what your saying, but you missed the point which is "political environment".

Not sure why price should be ignored, but actually personally I would choose a Y over a S or X. The Y simply uses the space more efficiently than the S, it's smaller but has more cargo room (and likely passenger room) than the S. It's also quite a bit smaller than the Model X, which is a huge plus in my book, especially for parking on city streets.

I got my 3 SR+ instead due to no Y SR option when I got it (of course luck would have it, a few days after delivery they announced the Y SR).

 

[Zorg]

Seems to me that Tesla did not thoroughly test the new car before switching production to the new model. I'm sure it'll be worth it when it comes out.

 

[ucmndd]

Seems to me that Tesla did not thoroughly test the new car before switching production to the new model. I'm sure it'll be worth it when it comes out.

Why would Tesla bother to test new cars when the first ~100,000 customers do it for them for free?

 

[Sbaimo]

They obviously are still testing. No production yet

 

[VikH]

Seems to me that Tesla did not thoroughly test the new car before switching production to the new model. I'm sure it'll be worth it when it comes out.

It worries me a little that they are still testing it for battery safety. Seems like they would have figured that out a while ago.

 

[Tigers]

It worries me a little that they are still testing it for battery safety. Seems like they would have figured that out a while ago.

I don't think it's just battery safety.. He mumbled a lot but implied they had quite a few issues with parts and or software. I don't think they would dare ship it with known battery issues. But terrible software? Possibly.

 

[SilverGS]

The battery in the LR and Plaid is still the old 18650 cells, so I'm not sure why they are having battery issues? What has changed regarding the battery architecture?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

The battery in the LR and Plaid is still the old 18650 cells, so I'm not sure why they are having battery issues? What has changed regarding the battery architecture?

While the new LR and Plaid will use 18650 cells, Elon said they have a different chemistry and that the battery pack has been redesigned.