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Considering that they are still charging through their trunks I think the mechanical parts of the car may be ready but battery and charging system perhaps is not.
Interior is probably jointly developed with OEMs so that part should not be too much burden on their resources.
Interior is probably jointly developed with OEMs so that part should not be too much burden on their resources.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I'd love to be pleasantly surprised, and be in my Model 3 next fall.....
but there are too many moving pieces here.
AP 2.0 hardware and R+D?
CPU and graphics hardware? Can LG make 325,000+ of those screens anytime soon?
Can the Gigafactory ramp that fast?
Will there be enough Service Centers and Superchargers to handle the exponential growth of Teslas on the roads?
Here's what I think our "pleasant surprise" will be.
They will be keeping a careful count of their output of Model S and X in the US throughout 2016 and 2017.
When they are approaching 200,000 US deliveries, they will hold back and ramp up Model S and X production to non-US markets.
They will deliver vehicle #199,999 on the last day of either Q4 2017 or Q1 2018......
and by then, the distribution contracts (they're gonna need more trucks and trains...)
the service centers and new employees there
and the additional superchargers and destination chargers
will all be in place.
THEN......they flood the market with US Model 3 deliveries, ensuring that everyone who takes delivery in the 1st half of 2018 gets the full tax benefit.
That will be our "pleasant surprise".
but there are too many moving pieces here.
AP 2.0 hardware and R+D?
CPU and graphics hardware? Can LG make 325,000+ of those screens anytime soon?
Can the Gigafactory ramp that fast?
Will there be enough Service Centers and Superchargers to handle the exponential growth of Teslas on the roads?
Here's what I think our "pleasant surprise" will be.
They will be keeping a careful count of their output of Model S and X in the US throughout 2016 and 2017.
When they are approaching 200,000 US deliveries, they will hold back and ramp up Model S and X production to non-US markets.
They will deliver vehicle #199,999 on the last day of either Q4 2017 or Q1 2018......
and by then, the distribution contracts (they're gonna need more trucks and trains...)
the service centers and new employees there
and the additional superchargers and destination chargers
will all be in place.
THEN......they flood the market with US Model 3 deliveries, ensuring that everyone who takes delivery in the 1st half of 2018 gets the full tax benefit.
That will be our "pleasant surprise".
I do agree... but I think that Boeing (and aerospace) is probably significantly worse than automotive. To significantly miss a schedule in normal automotive is catastrophic. The S and X were atypical because of the very high level of completely new technology. The 3 is basically a regular car, except for the drive train. And the drive train is only (I assume) incrementally improved from the well proven system in the S. I think it will happen.
Jason Bourne
Member
I think this is VERY unlikely. I anticipate Part II of the reveal to take place late 2016 and will be to discuss what options are available on the car. Only after that point will priority reservation holders be asked to convert in to orders and configure their car.My crystal ball says that everyone who will be invited to Part II event will drive away in their ordered carsThis will happen around November - December 2017
Let's parse the earnings report for cues.
But color me not hopeful yet for an early delivery.
I hope and dream that every ECU and harness PPAPs early
But color me not hopeful yet for an early delivery.
I hope and dream that every ECU and harness PPAPs early
I would've liked to have been a fly on the wall for the 'oh *sugar*' meeting. Whatever their plans were for production of the Model ≡ before last week, they are gone now. Hopefully the cash infusion will enable a quadrupling of the original planned production facility. Personally, I wouldn't even be trying to deliver early, but rather to deliver in higher volume.
Thank you kindly.
Thank you kindly.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I can't imagine there's a whole lot they can do to get the first production car out the door sooner than already planned. How quickly they can get the 100,000th off the line is a much more tractable problem and where I suspect they will be focusing the bulk of their efforts.
And remember, in TeslaTime, "on time" *is* early.
And remember, in TeslaTime, "on time" *is* early.
Actually, Part 2 would only happen when production car is ready to roll off the assembly plant.
So, late 2016 is too early for that. I would expect Part 2 to be around fall 2017, with the announcement of Model 3 delivery in about 3 months' time.
amb3rgris
Member
When I read the Tesla/Elon comments regarding the need to alter production plans, my first thought wasn't that they would be able to increase the production timing or rate. There are soooo many moving parts to this plan (Gigafactory, external vendors, etc) that I don't think they can just say "oh, we'll just throw $X at this, and start X weeks earlier and get X more cars/week."
Rather, I assumed they had a plan in place (like the S or X) where they would build all the reservations of a certain build, for a certain target geo-location. Then move on to the next one. Then the next.
But the huge number of reservations may mean they have to re-think this, or no one outside of PXXD's in California get delivered for a year.
I was assuming they were going to re-think their production "queuing" plans so that deliveries end up being more equitable for all.
Rather, I assumed they had a plan in place (like the S or X) where they would build all the reservations of a certain build, for a certain target geo-location. Then move on to the next one. Then the next.
But the huge number of reservations may mean they have to re-think this, or no one outside of PXXD's in California get delivered for a year.
I was assuming they were going to re-think their production "queuing" plans so that deliveries end up being more equitable for all.
Jason Bourne
Member
Has there been any official information released that supports this timing? I don't have any to support mine, but just wondering if you read something I missed.
Bokonon
Title-customizing Member
I agree with you, as usual. However I also think it is just barely possible that production could start before the stated "end 2017" and ramp up to higher levels very quickly. here's why:
1. Model 3 has a host of obvious production simplifications from elimination of the glovebox mechanism to elimination of multiple electrical connections and cables in the cabin. Tons of small things like that may end out assembling the Model 3 to be more like a stripped low end car than another Tesla.
2. This time they'll have little difficulty convincing suppliers to use the "A team". Until now every Tesla was thought of as an unrealistic project so suppliers dragged their feet, overpriced and underdelivered. They will not do that now. Further, as already said, Tesla will not need to single source and probably will not do much of that.
3. Tesla made a "virtue" of high vertical integration because they had no choice. This time it will be different, so they'll usually have a choice.
4. This car has been in the planning for a long time with the clear expectation that it will be the entry to high volume with pricing that demands high efficiency.
5. Elon gets in trouble when he forecasts the impossible using a standard industrial time schedule. That never works (using commercial aviation) as everything from the B787 to A380 tells us. When Airbus stayed conservative with the A350 they delivered well by airliner standards, 13 months late and still overweight, but nothing like the two before it. Elon is setting the Model 3 on the A350 model but stepping even further to simplicity.
6. There are no materials innovations with Model 3. The body in white seems to be steel and the bulk of other parts aluminum. That combination is time-tested and simple to execute.
7. The Giga-factory is already in production, and the new stage-based opening gives excellent opportunities to evolve manufacturing techniques, battery design, raw materials refinement. That evolution allows meeting a schedule for production without massive commitment to the status quo in battery technology. I think there has been too little attention to that as a risk and cost reduction effort.
There is more. Elon has learned the price of hubris twice: Space X complacency and Model X over-complexity. By all current evidence it seems both of these have been overcome ands new production X's are very good. I'm sure it will have a long and successful life.
Maybe I am naive to think Elon has learned from these things. I do not think I am at all. I think I am realistic. So, I do think there will be Model 3's delivered about 24 months from now, with a fairly quick build up and two or three CKD factories in critical foreign markets.
The fun may begin with build out of Supercharger networks including a few new countries, and service centers to support the cars.
Oddly, I foresee little problem raising all the boatloads of capital required, probably more than five billion dollars.
skate_a_book
Member
Well, the webcast of the unveiling actually began on time. So far, so good.
They could also start shipping Model 3s to Canada which won't count against the US quota but help their production refinement up to an even higher level.
Bimbels
GoldMember
I too think that this will happen--but only for low-volume deliveries.
I don't think Tesla will stop the whole "beta testing" car thing that they did for the S and X as they ramped up. I think the Model 3 will still start off at a relatively small trickle.
I believe that, however, the late 2017 / early 2018 mark has always been an internal mark for high volume production.
Here's what evidence and speculation I think may contribute to this situation:
1) The Gigafactory is going to have full car battery and cell production capabilities by late 2016. I think it makes sense for the Gigafactory to produce the completely new battery tech (the larger cells they're using) from the get-go, rather than have the Gigafactory tooled and designed to produce gen1 S and X packs.
2) Mules are, essentially, already on the road. MX mules appeared six months before production, approximately. Applying the same timeline would result in late 2016 for M3 production to begin.
3) It's been known that they've been working on this for a long time.
4) Car definitely looks like it was designed for ease of production (people say the all glass is roof, I say it's probably much simpler to place glass on a chassis like that given their expertise with the MX windshield.
5) Elon already is teasing about the final designs of the car.
6) Engineers stating this is a "production prototype" on the test drives.
7) There are no unproven challenges in this car. Everything it has, has been done on the S and X already.
8) SpaceX and Tesla employees taking first deliveries--they can have a more true "beta test" than the S and X ever could have.
9) The west coast to east coast priority, and stores taking reservations first--they want the early cars to go to places near heavy, existing infrastructure first. Near stores, near high-volume Supercharger corridors like in California, in states that allow service centers. Or in other words, they'll be delivering cars but still needing time to build infrastructure. Having Model 3 development costs largely finished will free up tons of funds for infrastructure.
10) Pre-orders dictating priority for infrastructure.
11) Anti-Tesla laws won't be going away until Tesla is a mass market car, and not a rich man's toy. The earlier Model 3 deliveries start, the earlier these laws can be repealed for infrastructure in these states.
12) More revenue without raising more money through Wall Street--both for timing of development CapEx and for earning sales, it'll be very hard to create more factories and gigafactories in time if they cannot start until late 2017 / early 2018.
I don't think Tesla will stop the whole "beta testing" car thing that they did for the S and X as they ramped up. I think the Model 3 will still start off at a relatively small trickle.
I believe that, however, the late 2017 / early 2018 mark has always been an internal mark for high volume production.
Here's what evidence and speculation I think may contribute to this situation:
1) The Gigafactory is going to have full car battery and cell production capabilities by late 2016. I think it makes sense for the Gigafactory to produce the completely new battery tech (the larger cells they're using) from the get-go, rather than have the Gigafactory tooled and designed to produce gen1 S and X packs.
2) Mules are, essentially, already on the road. MX mules appeared six months before production, approximately. Applying the same timeline would result in late 2016 for M3 production to begin.
3) It's been known that they've been working on this for a long time.
4) Car definitely looks like it was designed for ease of production (people say the all glass is roof, I say it's probably much simpler to place glass on a chassis like that given their expertise with the MX windshield.
5) Elon already is teasing about the final designs of the car.
6) Engineers stating this is a "production prototype" on the test drives.
7) There are no unproven challenges in this car. Everything it has, has been done on the S and X already.
8) SpaceX and Tesla employees taking first deliveries--they can have a more true "beta test" than the S and X ever could have.
9) The west coast to east coast priority, and stores taking reservations first--they want the early cars to go to places near heavy, existing infrastructure first. Near stores, near high-volume Supercharger corridors like in California, in states that allow service centers. Or in other words, they'll be delivering cars but still needing time to build infrastructure. Having Model 3 development costs largely finished will free up tons of funds for infrastructure.
10) Pre-orders dictating priority for infrastructure.
11) Anti-Tesla laws won't be going away until Tesla is a mass market car, and not a rich man's toy. The earlier Model 3 deliveries start, the earlier these laws can be repealed for infrastructure in these states.
12) More revenue without raising more money through Wall Street--both for timing of development CapEx and for earning sales, it'll be very hard to create more factories and gigafactories in time if they cannot start until late 2017 / early 2018.
That would be awesome,My crystal ball says that everyone who will be invited to Part II event will drive away in their ordered cars
and unlikely..
