I don't see why so many here keep saying "there are so many factors here". There's only 1 factor....the number of production lines (just like the number of registers open at your local supermarket). The design & testing schedule is the design & testing schedule....nothing much you can do about that schedule. But production is much easier in terms of schedule....it IS a matter of money. Guestimating Tesla needs 1 production line per 100,000k pre-orders, they simply would need to build 3 more lines to cover this years orders. Look for Tesla to pay for the additional production lines by asking you for $4k per pre-order to get your lock in the production queue.
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Even if that was the case I don't see them building a second, or third, production line until they have the first one built, tested, and fine tuned. Then you start duplicating that line.
One of the advantages Tesla has in adding production lines is the heavy reliance on automation and robots--to add a second or third line involves training a lot fewer people.
Agreed, but once you get the first set of robots programmed, you can just copy that over to the new line, you are not starting from scratch.
One thing I have not seen anyone discuss is where Tesla is going to get the working capital to go build 300K cars in short order--they are going to have to acquire raw materials and cut POs to their supply chain and build out additional production lines. I am sure the original plan was to use the proceeds from operations to scale the production and supply chain capacity, but with this kind of backlog, I am sure it broke some spreadsheets along the way.
All along Tesla has said that they use short-term "bridge" loans to pay for the parts/labor/etc. and those loans are secured against the orders, and cars that are produced. I see no reason why their creditors wouldn't increase their credit line to cover producing more cars at a time given the large demand.
Of course what will matter most is how many of, and how fast, these refundable reservations turn into orders with a non-refundable $5k deposit.
Of course what will matter most is how many of, and how fast, these refundable reservations turn into orders with a non-refundable $5k deposit.
Darryl
ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm
They will be lucky to start by mid-to-late 2018. They have a history of being years late on last three models. It doesn't appear it is something that money can fix or they wouldn't have been so late with the Model X and when they did start up there were lots of problems and they had to shut down production for six weeks. Not only do they now have to build out the rest of Fremont they have to build a second factory in Europe and possibly one in China. Also the Gigafactory won't be completed until sometime mid-to-late next year which is key to producing the batteries for they need. They also said they may have to build a second battery factory in China. They are just on the bleeding edge of technology and early adopters just have to be willing to wait and learn to expect delays.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I'm not sure that building other factories is going to be a hindrance in this case. Adding Europe and China to the mix sounded as if those were separate parts of the plan.
The Gigafactory is already producing (Powerwalls go on sale in US soon), but not quite at the rate needed for Model 3 yet.
I think they'll start on time, but the 1st large wave of us getting our cars won't be until the 1st half of 2018.
Bimbels
GoldMember
Well, the MAIN factor is the batteries.
It doesn't matter how many lines you have if you can't produce the batteries - so the Gigafactory is another "factor."
ElectricTundra
P85D AP1
There is a bit of evidence that lines 3 & 4 in Fremont are both largely complete from a hardware standpoint based on comments from one investor tour and orders from Kuka. As @omarsultan said they'll likely only use one (Line 3) initially until they're confident in the process and at that point turning up Line 4 should be relatively easy. I'd not be surprised if Line 3 isn't producing mules this spring or summer. They seem to be well ahead of where they were with getting the line built for the Model X?
Their goal is that all lines around the world are identical and that any line can produce any car. My guess is that this is a ways off and that Fremont at least will be one Model S line, one X line, and two Model 3 lines for some time yet.
Agreed. When Tesla starts to build a second production factory (not "if", but "when") they will at the same time have to start to build another Gigafactory. The Gigafactory currently under construction will have all its production output taken up when the Fremont factory is running at full capacity and by the demand for Powerwalls and Powerpacks. A second Gigagfactory is required if a second vehicle production factory is in operation.
Where have you heard that? I've only heard that they are using the Gigafactory to assemble Powerwalls using cells manufactured by Panasonic. As far as I know they haven't started producing battery cells there yet.
JSBulmer
Member
Speculation is always fraught with errors, for none can predict the future and none have access to the deeply confidential internal documents.
I will be happy with a 2018 or 2019 delivery schedule. Heck, 2020 is fine too. If it is earlier, it is earlier and YAAAY US. I have not had a Model 3 before and therefore I will be happy with one, whenever I get it.
Cheers all.
I will be happy with a 2018 or 2019 delivery schedule. Heck, 2020 is fine too. If it is earlier, it is earlier and YAAAY US. I have not had a Model 3 before and therefore I will be happy with one, whenever I get it.
Cheers all.
They do have a couple of advantages putting together the Model 3 line. The car is closer in size to the cars NUMMI built back in the day, which may be a factor if they are reusing anything on the line from the NUMMI days. The other is the Model 3 is a more conventional car than the Model X which has a lot of experimental features.
Down the line if Tesla sees sales of the Model X and S drop in favor of larger Model 3 sales, they might combine the S and X line can convert one of them to the 3. That would be way down the road when the factory is nearing max capacity. I've read they current S and X lines are set up to switch over to the other car fairly quickly if they have to, so it wouldn't be a huge problem to build both cars on one line except for the drop in yearly volume.
That's the reason why the initial batch of cars would go to employees and west coast customers. They would be close to the factory if any issues arise.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I lol'd.
Lots of checkout lines are worthless if you have no groceries to sell.
Production lines are the easy part. Trivial even. A problem that has been solved for over a hundred years.
The logistics of assembling a global supply chain is the hard problem to solve. Missing one part out of the 5,000 or so it takes to make a car? The whole line stops.
