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Speculative prediction: 60kWh battery option for X

Discussion in 'Model X' started by ecarfan, Jul 9, 2016.

  1. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Elon has stated multiple times that he wants to only sell cars with at least 200 miles of range (EPA rating). Currently, the X 75D is rated at 237. The S 75D is rated at 259. Because the X is larger it has 8.5% less range for the same size battery.

    If Tesla offered an X 60D it seems to me that it could possibly still achieve an EPA range rating of 200 miles (based on the 218 mile EPA range of the S 60D) but would cost significantly less than the X 75D, since the S 60D costs $8.5K less than the S 75D. So Tesla could offer a base X 60D for $74,500, much less than the current base X 75D price of $83K. That could expand the potential market for the X. Certainly there are potential buyers who would be satisfied with a 200 mile range X, especially as the Supercharger network increases in number and density.

    I think it quite possible that sometime next year Tesla will offer an X 60D, or whatever the smallest battery offering will be at that time. If next year the S battery choices get bumped up to 65/80/95 then it seems feasible to offer the X with those 3 choices as well.
     
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  2. abasile

    abasile Independent Software Eng.

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    You may well be right. For most use cases, a 60 kWh battery should be plenty. It's actually pretty impressive that an SUV with up to seven seats can travel 200+ miles on only 60 kWh.

    Speaking of seats, another issue with Model X affordability is the cost of adding two more seats. To upgrade from the base five seat configuration to seven seats, the cost is $4000 for the rear seats themselves plus an additional $2500 for the air suspension option which Tesla requires with seven seats. For those who don't really care about air suspension, $6500 seems like a steep price to pay to add the two seats. By contrast, adding the rear jumpseats to a Model S adds $3000 to the price, which isn't cheap but doesn't seem so high.
     
  3. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    #3 ecarfan, Jul 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2016
    Whatever Tesla can do to decrease the base price of the X will help increase sales, in my opinion. It's a very expensive car (like the S, but more so) and I too am puzzled as to why adding the third row seats (for only two people) means that the Smart Air Suspension is required.

    Tesla doesn't need to add a smaller battery option this year to help X sales, but I think it would be a wise thing to do sometime in 2017. I think it was very smart for Tesla to re-introduce the S 60 recently, and they should do the same for the X.
     
  4. Ryan MF

    Ryan MF Member

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    Another reason for an X60 is that the model 3 will offer lower cost options for those interested in the S, but there is no such cheaper X on the horizon. Makes sense to fill all existing orders and bring production up to demand for the X before offering something like this.
     
  5. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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  6. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    That article you linked to was a review of a bunch of tweets about the then new X that Elon made last year. At that time the X was only available with a 90kWh battery. In one of those tweets Elon said "something like a 70, but probably around 12 months from now", referring to Tesla offering the X with a smaller battery. It turned out that the battery size was 75 and it happened sooner than he stated. I see nothing else in those Elon tweets about an even cheaper version of the X. Am I missing something?
     
  7. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    I was referring to the model Y, which supposedly is the cheaper version of the X.
     
  8. xkwizit

    xkwizit Member

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    A 60kwh battery on Model X would serve a limited purpose of local travel for which a sedan is better suited. Plus, I would rather have the Model X stay higher end exclusive car and not become a very common car.
     
  9. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    A 60kWh battery in an X will get an EPA range rating of over 200 miles. For most people that is plenty of range, and with the Supercharger network growing by leaps and bounds that kind of range will work for long distance drivel.

    The X will never be a "common car" considering that it currently sells for over $83,000 ! Only a small fraction of US car buyers can afford it.
     
  10. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    A 60kWh would NOT likely get 200 miles. 92% of 208 = 191.

    If the dual motor, likely just over 200.

    This will still be an incredible car, but I'd predict a towing range of less than 100 miles.

    This is not an argument for or against . . .just an observation that Tesla would likely offer additional "range" to be unlocked as a 75 as well.
     
  11. xkwizit

    xkwizit Member

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    @ecarfan - in practical driving you wouldn't rely on EPA rating which doesn't account for weather conditions. If your car did get a 200mile rating you would want to charge up at about 150-160 miles. I don't believe TM is putting up SpCs at every 150miles.
     
  12. Ben W

    Ben W P85 #61, Roadster #108

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    I expect that Tesla might wait until their next battery bump to offer a lower-end Model X. For instance, if they boost the current 75 and 90 offerings to 80 and 100, then they could slot in a 65 at the low end for a lower price, and still achieve 200mi range. For the moment, they seem unable to keep up with current Model X demand, so it's unlikely they will do something to increase demand further. But once their Model X production catches up to demand, I could certainly see them doing something like this.
     
  13. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. That is obvious. But Tesla currently sells an S 60 with an EPA range of 210 miles. My point is that Tesla could also offer an X 60D with an EPA range equal or slightly greater to that (based on my analysis in my post that started this thread). And I believe that would meet the needs of many buyers.
     
  14. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I swear I had no inside information when I started this thread. Today Tesla announced this in an email broadcast, quote:
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    Today we’re excited to introduce the all-wheel drive Model X 60D. Starting at $64,000 (after incentives) or $866 a month (details here), the Model X 60D delivers 200 miles estimated range, a top speed of 130 mph and zero-to-60 acceleration in 6.0 seconds.

    Like all Tesla vehicles, the 60D comes standard with active safety features and Autopilot hardware. The Model X 60D can later be upgraded through a software update to 75 kWh to increase range by about 20
     
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  15. Benjamins

    Benjamins Member

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    I respect your correct speculation
     
  16. Nevek

    Nevek Overt Member

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    Any stock tips?:cool:
     
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  17. xkwizit

    xkwizit Member

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    @ecarfan - Are you sure Elon didn't use his Martian skills to get into your head and give you ideas ??;)
     
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  18. jomo25

    jomo25 P4398

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    Nailed it!
     
  19. jomo25

    jomo25 P4398

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    Inception-like. Question is, who planted the idea with whom? :p
     
  20. enisoc

    enisoc Member

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    Clearly your words carry special power. Try making a thread speculating that 2nd row seats will be enabled to fold flat by a software update...
     
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