Speculators speculate! Monthly subscription for Autopilot eventually?

[gekcut]

First tell me how you know a system that has had many reported errors (sudden braking, abrupt lane changes, straying out of lanes, etc.) is safer for me to use than my driving without it with a record of 30 years of driving without an accident. This is your claim.

"Humans > AP
Humans + AP > Humans without AP."

When I see a year or two without those errors I might consider it.

Your plan is to let AP help you when you are not 100% alert and attentive. Yet at that time you are also alert and attentive enough to realize the system has made an error and correct for it in a split second. I don't think so.

 

[MXWing]

First tell me how you know a system that has had many reported errors (sudden braking, abrupt lane changes, straying out of lanes, etc.) is safer for me to use than my driving without it with a record of 30 years of driving without an accident. This is your claim.

"Humans > AP
Humans + AP > Humans without AP."

When I see a year or two without those errors I might consider it.

Your plan is to let AP help you when you are not 100% alert and attentive. Yet at that time you are also alert and attentive enough to realize the system has made an error and correct for it in a split second. I don't think so.

You will be thankful for autonomy when you are 80 and need to get somewhere in a vehicle but I digress..

Tesla's Autopilot Tech Has Made Its Cars 40% Safer

You cannot use your anecdotal evidence of one person driving compared to the billions of miles driven by all cars in a given year.

Many drivers can say they trust EAP and have the same or more driving record as you.

Whether I have AP or not I'm not going to always be 100% alert and attentive. You have not been 100% alert and attentive for every single of every mile in your car either.

We just haven't caused any accidents for the times we feel below 100%.

As drivers we can think of two scenarios and it should be evident for experienced drivers which one makes you more sleepy:

1 - Taking winding roads at high speeds, say 50% over the limit.

2 - Hours of stop and go traffic at low speeds going on a straight road late at night when lanes closed down for construction.

You don't engage AP for scenario #1. AP is very helpful for scenario #2. Neither case do you fall asleep, but case #2 certainly lowers your alertness level.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Aaaaanyway...

No they will not do a subscription for Autopilot for the main reason that they need the cash up front, and they need to show investors they are generating revenue per unit.

IMO, if Tesla were a private company and was really serious about autonomous driving, the tech would be available in all cars by default, and would rake in all that valuable data to accelerate the feature faster.

 

[gekcut]

Maybe by the time I am 80 AP will be safer than I am.

What you are not getting is how I drive compared to how AP does. I constantly analyze the road ahead and avoid situation that present danger and avoid them. I will not go into the various scenarios but will give one simple example, I may see a driver quite some distance ahead do something unsafe such as changing lanes without signaling or wandering out of their lane. I will avoid that driver by moving over an extra lane or not passing them and staying far behind them depending on circumstances. There have been many times where this has kept me out of trouble. AP does not do that, it will take me into the dangerous situation. There are countless similar proactive actions I do while driving that AP will not do. So AP will not reduce my fatigue because I would be in many more situations that would be stressful. In addition the current AP errors would add an additional hazard to my driving.

If you had said in general humans + AP> humans I would agree but for a subset of drivers it is not true.

 

[CjRichMar]

Clearly we have never met. I drove a Model S with autopilot and do not want it. I am a very conservative driver with an IT background. My last accident (hitting a deer when a group of six bolted single file out of bushes across a narrow road) happened over 30 years ago and AP would not have helped. I would be more fatigued by driving when constantly watching for AP to make a mistake than I would be driving without it. If a free trial was offered I might try it, but doubt I would change my mind.

Well met, friend! I can no longer say I've never met anyone who didn't like AP.

 

[CjRichMar]

Believe it or not, my issue with Autopilot is not about the price. Yes, I actually said that!!!

Two reasons for me:

1. I simply don't feel that I need autopilot. It might be neat to try out for a while, but I don't think I'd use it often enough. A lot of my driving takes place above the speed limit, whatever the limit may be on whatever road I am on at the moment, and autopilot wouldn't drive the car right for me.

2. I simply don't trust it to drive for me.

Well alright then. Either way, you sound like you know what you want so good luck! I hope the car doesn't disappoint. And to answer your question, I do not believe Tesla will offer a subscription. I think that AP will eventually become a standard feature once the kinks are worked out and the technology becomes proliferated across the industry. Like back up cameras.

 

[gekcut]

Well met, friend! I can no longer say I've never met anyone who didn't like AP.

El gusto es mio! (in Mexico at the moment). You are right, AP will be as standard as seat belts. However there will still be some who prefer driving without it just as there are a few of us still driving manual transmissions.

 

[MXWing]

Maybe by the time I am 80 AP will be safer than I am.

What you are not getting is how I drive compared to how AP does. I constantly analyze the road ahead and avoid situation that present danger and avoid them. I will not go into the various scenarios but will give one simple example, I may see a driver quite some distance ahead do something unsafe such as changing lanes without signaling or wandering out of their lane. I will avoid that driver by moving over an extra lane or not passing them and staying far behind them depending on circumstances. There have been many times where this has kept me out of trouble. AP does not do that, it will take me into the dangerous situation. There are countless similar proactive actions I do while driving that AP will not do. So AP will not reduce my fatigue because I would be in many more situations that would be stressful. In addition the current AP errors would add an additional hazard to my driving.

If you had said in general humans + AP> humans I would agree but for a subset of drivers it is not true.

It's sobering.. but our vision, reflexes and awareness will keep declining and the machines will keep getting better. Tesla gets a lot of flack for not doing a FSD trip from CA to NY but really EAP as is would have been science fiction 10 years ago.

I know what you mean exactly by being proactive - it's being able to read emotions, intent and situations that AP cannot. I actually don't expect FSD to be truly effective until the majority if not all cars are FSD and can talk to one another.

2 years ago, I myself made a post about "whats the big deal with AP?". I don't need it, I can drive better than it, very much the same arguments you are making now.

We'll probably agree to disagree until you get some time behind it and possibly change your mind.

The article that I linked above essentially proves in general - humans + AP> humans.

For more advanced drivers, they can't be convinced without sufficient time behind the system.

I published some very "worrisome" data on Tesla AP new years day 2017.

My stance has evolved.

8.0 (2.50.185) caution using TACC/Autosteer features

 

[RayK]

As mine may evolve over time. My philosophy is that a sports sedan, ICE or EV, is meant to be driven. Not to be an attentive overlord babysitting some HW/SW combination that may or may not recognize some upcoming danger. In the almost 18 years of driving my BMW 323i, I can probably count the number of times that I've used the cruise control on two hands. This includes many trips up to Tahoe and down to L.A. That's how much I think of using any kind of assistance with control over my car.

Sure, when i get older my reaction time is going to degrade. My vision probably as well (I wear contacts and need reading glasses at the same time). If/when I recognize these changes, or more likely, if I'm told by my family that I'm getting to be a danger to myself and others, then I'll buy into AP/FSD. But for now, I don't see the need to spend the money.

 

[run-the-joules]

I won't subscribe to that sort of thing, I think that's a millennial way of thinking, but I wouldn't own a Tesla without autopilot either. It's the main reason I bought the car. In essence it wasn't a $5k choice, it was a $65k choice: my previous car was fine. I wanted Autopilot.

Given the choice between a brand new P100D that has had autopilot disabled and a used Audi A4 with traffic jam assist and I'll take the Audi without hesitation.

 

[sreams]

Maybe by the time I am 80 AP will be safer than I am.

What you are not getting is how I drive compared to how AP does.

And therein lies the misconception as to what AP is. The comparison is not between you and AP. It is between you and you+AP.

 

[boaterva]

BTW, I’ve had cruise control on every car for 40 years also. I think I used it perhaps twice. TACC and AS ain’t CC. Especially when the radar can see the car in front of the car in front of you.

 

[kwest2]

Scary.

Tesla owners almost crashes on video trying to recreate fatal Autopilot accident

 

[JonathanD]

Elon wants as much as the fleet to have AP and full FSD eventually. The extra one-time fee up front is to raise the capital to fund the development (and hardware, obviously). This is similar to the one-time fee for Model S/X supercharging to fund the supercharger infrastructure. That's switched to pay-per-use for Model 3 because of the electricity usage, but in terms of the software development for AP/FSD there are no "consumables" on existing code just ongoing development that can be funded with more vehicle sales.

 

[Thirsty3]

Resurrecting this post (I'm not the OP) in light of today's announcement re a subscription model for premium connectivity. There are plenty of threads about that, but I thought it might be fun to re-open the conversation as to whether Tesla might now consider a subscription option for autopilot now that they did so for other features.

I think it might be a very interesting to those considering trading their [pre March 2019, not yet purchased AP] cars in less than 2-3 years (instead of investing in the purchase, a $30-50 per month auto pilot subscription would be cheaper if you're subscribing for less than 3 years). This would also help to further standardize the fleet (more pre March 2019 cars running the same software). It could also serve as an extended trial and convince some people who plan to keep their cars longer to purchase AP (and maybe even bring them a step closer to FSD).

 

[dmurphy]

Nah. The plan since the beginning was for premium connectivity to be a subscription. That’s a fixed cost that Tesla pays out to their mobile provider - so it makes sense for that to be a subscription.

with Autopilot included in all vehicles on-menu now, why would they make it a subscription?

 

[Big Dog]

not gonna happen, particularly for pre-19 cars as they require a computer upgrade, so $30-$50/mo won't come close to the installation labor, much less development of the cpu.

 

[Kiwiadventure]

I'm not buying autopilot on my 3. Too much money for something I don't think will help me much. It's bad enough I'm already being forced into overpaying by $14,000 for a big battery and "luxury" interior crap I don't need.

But I wonder if Tesla will eventually offer autopilot ability as a monthly paid subscription plan, to draw more money out of people. They like to do that. Some people will try it and not buy, in which case Tesla gets more money, and some people will try it and like it, and order the autopilot upgrade, in which case Tesla gets MORE money.

If that were the case I might try it, but I doubt I'd buy the whole thing. Too much money for someone to remotely change a 0 to a 1 in my car's computer. What's that? I'm paying for all the R&D that went into making autopilot? That's not my problem. I didn't ask them to do it.

Maybe it'll be a 1 month free trial, or $100 per month for as long as you like, or something similar.

Start speculating. Think Tesla will do this maybe later this year, once the production is more figured out and not as big an issue?

You're the mug who purchased a Tesla and now you don't want to fully utilise what you purchased can do by not paying a little more for full auto pilot.

 

[Thirsty3]

not gonna happen, particularly for pre-19 cars as they require a computer upgrade, so $30-$50/mo won't come close to the installation labor, much less development of the cpu.

Just to clarify, there's no hardware difference between the cars that came with standard autopilot (approx march 2019 onward) vs the cars sold prior to that, which can upgrade to AP (and FSD) by an over-the-air (paid) software update.

 

[pilotSteve]

Scary.

Tesla owners almost crashes on video trying to recreate fatal Autopilot accident

wait..... is he unhappy he didn’t succeed?????