Specuwaiting.....

[amgibbo]

Hey everyone, first post. While we eagerly await the arrival of the Model 3 I put some numbers together based on current options with some minor price adjustments. Obviously speculation is pretty worthless but here goes:

I'm hesitant to give the lower kWh packs the range I did, but there should be some density improvements by 2017/18, plus there is the stated hard target of 200 real world miles.

I also am guessing that some options on Model S will not be available purely for differentiation, such as air suspension. May be others as well.

Fully expect Autopilot features to be available across the board to maximize fleet learning/mapping.

Hoping for a smaller Model S in overall shape/stance, although aesthetics will be a distant relative. I don't think Tesla needs a funky shape a la Prius to sell cars. Otherwise I would opt for a CPO Model S in a couple years.

No crazy doors, seats or pop-out door handles. I think we can agree that simplicity is key for higher production volume.

Weight reduction will be moderate. Lighter packs and vehicle size, but use of steel over aluminum will offset a lot of overall weight loss.

Cost at bottom is the fully loaded spec.

Variations of range and 0-60 between packs based on current Models S deltas. No Ludicrous.

15% lighter than 70 (4,000+lbs)	45	55	55D	P60D
Range	220	250	260	240
0-60	6.2	5	4.7	3.5
BASE	35000	45000	45000	60000
DUAL MOTOR	NA	NA	4000	INCL
SUPERCHARGE	2000	INCL	INCL	INCL
CONV PKG	1000	INCL	INCL	INCL
AUTOPILOT	2000	2000	2000	2000
PREMIUM PKG	NA	2500	2500	2500
HIFI	2000	2000	2000	2000
SUBZERO	1000	1000	1000	1000
PAINT	1000	1000	1000	1000
PANO	1500	1500	1500	1500
18'' Wheels	1000	1000	1000	1000
20'' Wheels	NA	2500	2500	2500
SEATS	2000	2000	2000	2000
INTERIOR TRIM	1000	1000	1000	1000
AIR SUSP	NA	NA	NA	NA
TOTAL	49500	61500	65500	76500

Just guesses to spark discussion, don't crucify me.

 

[Saghost]

I think most of what you wrote makes sense. A couple little things - I don't think 220 miles from 45 kWh is likely for anyone in the next few years (and I do think the 220 is reasonably likely for a base range target, so I think the base is more likely to be a 50 or even 55 kWh car.)

Not offering some options on the smaller battery car as options is something Tesla has never done before that I've seen - aside from the performance model special features, you've always been able to load up the cheap car with all the toys - in particular I'm looking at the premium package and 20" wheels, though I suspect there will be a dual motor small battery option, too. I'm also surprised by your suggestion of a third battery size for the performance model only - I'd expect the last three cars in your set to all share the same (60 kWh? 65 kWh?) pack.

Agree that Autopilot will be available on all versions - possibly even standard on most, and possibly more capable than the current version is.

It'll be interesting to see how Tesla handles Supercharging; they will undoubtedly offer it in some form. They have to be squeezing to hit the $35k target, so your speculation is a reasonable one - but I could also see them wanting to make it a non-issue as a comparison point and including it on all trims anyway.
Walter

 

[coco81]

I think a 45/55 KWh battery is too small. If you want more than 200 real world miles of range, you need at least 220 miles EPA and considering a 20% smaller car... i think 50-55KWh it's the minimum. For a higher range version I also thinks that the minimun acceptable range will be the same of Model S85, or even more. This will be around 70KWh.

 

[MassModel3]

First and foremost, welcome to the Forums!

Geeze, I have no idea what to expect, but I think a lot of the add-ins here are a bit high. For example, the sub-zero package on the S went up from $750 to $1000 within the past year, but it shows that they can do it for $750. I think they'll have that for the 3 for no more than that cost. We can get some of the larger wheels at Tire Rack for a couple hundred bucks per wheel, so hopefully Tesla won't overcharge for them on the 3 like they do on the S. Upgrading to leather in a Camry is $1500, so in a Model 3 I expect that at the most.

Basically, the Roadster and the S were designed to be the big money makers to fund the Model 3. The Model X I think of as a side project that they just felt like doing because they could. (What if we made the S as an SUV, gave it hospital grade filtration, gave it cool doors, etc., etc.) Then they priced it comparably to the S for like items.

But I think the 3 will be much lower for most the options you have listed. Other in the forums post similar guesses to yours, but I think they're guessing high.

 

[aronth5]

As MassModel3 said welcome to the forum especially from another Massachusetts member!
Wouldn't expect 4 different battery sizes. We've seen Tesla simplify options and choices for the Model S and I'd expect them to continue that approach with the 3.
ammgibbo your low cost option is pretty pricey so what options do you believe the base model will have since Tesla needs to come under $40k?

 

[amgibbo]

As MassModel3 said welcome to the forum especially from another Massachusetts member!
Wouldn't expect 4 different battery sizes. We've seen Tesla simplify options and choices for the Model S and I'd expect them to continue that approach with the 3.
ammgibbo your low cost option is pretty pricey so what options do you believe the base model will have since Tesla needs to come under $40k?

Thanks for the welcome! I hypothesized 3 pack sizes but it could easily be one, maybe with three motor outputs??? And certainly one pack size would make production that much easier.

Remember the low cost option price of $49k is fully loaded. The standard $35k variant will be pretty bone dry I suspect. Can economy of scale from a pack standpoint really bring the price down that much and still have standard features akin to the Model S? I hope so but...

I'm now starting to lean towards fewer battery sizes as you and Saghost suggest.

Ideally I would like dual motor, 4sec or better 0-60, AP and premium interior for target price of $60k. Feasible? And it can't look like an i3 or Bolt.

Really the least of my worries though. I live in the city with on-street parking only and no access to home charging.

 

[amgibbo]

First and foremost, welcome to the Forums!

Geeze, I have no idea what to expect, but I think a lot of the add-ins here are a bit high. For example, the sub-zero package on the S went up from $750 to $1000 within the past year, but it shows that they can do it for $750. I think they'll have that for the 3 for no more than that cost. We can get some of the larger wheels at Tire Rack for a couple hundred bucks per wheel, so hopefully Tesla won't overcharge for them on the 3 like they do on the S. Upgrading to leather in a Camry is $1500, so in a Model 3 I expect that at the most.

But I think the 3 will be much lower for most the options you have listed. Other in the forums post similar guesses to yours, but I think they're guessing high.

Thanks for the welcome! I adjusted options prices a bit and now have four 60 kWh variants in place of pack sizes. Quoted ranges get tricky when using same proportions for current Model S packs. Obviously won't be the same.

We're getting closer!?

15% lighter (4,000lbs)	60	60D	P60	P60D
Range	230	240	220	225
0-60	5.5	5.2	4	3.7
BASE	35000	40000	50000	60000
DUAL MOTOR	NA	INCL	NA	INCL
SPC	2000	INCL	INCL	INCL
CONV PKG	1000	INCL	INCL	INCL
AUTOPILOT	1500	1500	1500	1500
PREMIUM PKG	NA	2000	2000	2000
HIFI	1500	1500	1500	1500
SUBZERO	500	500	500	500
PAINT	1000	1000	1000	1000
PANO	1500	1500	1500	1500
18'' Wheels	500	500	500	500
20'' Wheels	NA	1000	1000	1000
SEATS	1500	1500	1500	1500
INTERIOR TRIM	1000	1000	1000	1000
AIR SUSP	NA	NA	NA	NA
TOTAL	47000	52000	62000	72000

 

[pmadflyer]

Just remember that Tesla will have enough automobile cells for every car to have 70 kWh. It wouldn't surprise me if we get something very similar to angibbo's table, but with options for the larger wheels and interior package on all models.

 

[coco81]

They have to offer two battery pack size. I will never buy the car if the range is lower than an actual S85.I bet 55, 55D, 70, 70D, P70D.

 

[Colsla]

I highly doubt that 10 kwh increase in battery will translate to 10k extra. even 70 to 85 is just over 12k (in Canada anyways). This without the GF too.

 

[MassModel3]

I highly doubt that 10 kwh increase in battery will translate to 10k extra. even 70 to 85 is just over 12k (in Canada anyways). This without the GF too.

Just to pull an old article out for battery cost comparisons:

“I think most of the targets that we see from the likes of DoE or EIA are very much on the conservative side. And, you can sort of do the math on what a battery would have to cost, you know, for a vehicle that can travel 200 – 250 miles and still cost $35,000,” said Straubel, “but I think we would be disappointed if battery costs were not in the $100 dollar range [per kilowatt-hour] by the end of this decade, somewhere in this ballpark.”

With these costs, we're only talking about another $1,000 productions cost for another 10KWh. Even if you figure the GF starts out with $150 per KWh, then we double it to make it a highly profitable product for Tesla, that's still only $3,000 for a 10 KWh increase.

But since the goal is to sell cars, not make a profit on the batteries (that's what PowerWall is for), I think no more than maybe $180 dollars per KWh by the time the Model 3 starts production. This puts a 50KWh battery cost at $9K, and another 15KWh for less than $3K.

And Elon Musk recently said that right now, if people don't have an urgent need to upgrade to a larger battery, then wait. This tells me that when the GF starts up next summer, prices will drop considerably. The cost of batteries will no longer be the reason pure EV's aren't mass market.

 

[ryanjm]

Some fun speculative food for thought here, but I don't see any way the biggest battery option on Model 3 only gets 240 miles to a charge. It wouldn't be much of an upgrade over the base battery, and as someone hoping to buy a fully-optioned Model 3, I'd be very disappointed by that. I suspect 275-300 EPA miles from the big battery.

 

[igotzzoom]

I have always said I'd be perfectly content with a 0-60 acceleration time of 6 flat for the base model. That's plenty quick for real-world, everyday driving.

 

[Zwalderon]

I have always said I'd be perfectly content with a 0-60 acceleration time of 6 flat for the base model. That's plenty quick for real-world, everyday driving.

5 seconds for me

 

[coco81]

I know you have cheap fuel and powerful cars in America, but here in Europe the base Model 3 equivalent is a 1.8/2.0 four cilinder diesel with less than 200hp... 0-60 in these cars is about 8-10 seconds. If the base model 3 can do 0-60 in 6 seconds it will be absolutely great here. Vast majority of cars are much slower.

I'm not sure if I will pay 4-5k $ more for a sub-5 seconds dual drive version considering this, for me 0-100Km/h (60mph aprox) in less than 6 seconds is a really really fast car.

 

[Yggdrasill]

15% lighter than 70 (4,000+lbs)	45	55	55D	P60D
Range	220	250	260	240
0-60	6.2	5	4.7	3.5
BASE	35000	45000	45000	60000
DUAL MOTOR	NA	NA	4000	INCL
SUPERCHARGE	2000	INCL	INCL	INCL
CONV PKG	1000	INCL	INCL	INCL
AUTOPILOT	2000	2000	2000	2000
PREMIUM PKG	NA	2500	2500	2500
HIFI	2000	2000	2000	2000
SUBZERO	1000	1000	1000	1000
PAINT	1000	1000	1000	1000
PANO	1500	1500	1500	1500
18'' Wheels	1000	1000	1000	1000
20'' Wheels	NA	2500	2500	2500
SEATS	2000	2000	2000	2000
INTERIOR TRIM	1000	1000	1000	1000
AIR SUSP	NA	NA	NA	NA
TOTAL	49500	61500	65500	76500

Just guesses to spark discussion, don't crucify me.

You're not the first to try to figure out how the pricing will be. :wink:

Here's my estimates from a different thread, but I've changed them according to an assumed Cd of 0.199 and some other adjustments.

Version	55	55D	70	70D	P70D
Range	220	230	280	290	270
Horsepower	200	300*	200	400	500*
0-60	6.0	4.8	6.5	4.0	2.8
Base	34,900	38,900	40,900	44,900	56,900
Supercharge	1,500**	1,500**	INCL	INCL	INCL
Tech Pack	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000
Autopilot	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000
Leather Seats	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000
Premium Interior	1,250	1,250	1,250	1,250	1,250
Interior trim	500	500	500	500	500
Sound Studio	1,500	1,500	1,500	1,500	1,500
Metallic Paint	750	750	750	750	750
Winter Pack	750	750	750	750	750
18" Wheels	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000
20" Wheels	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500
TOP SPEC:	48,650	52,650	53,150	57,150	69,150

* Battery Limited
** One year access included for free, costs 2,000 after delivery

 

[wallet.dat]

I live less than 1 mile from the freeway, and work less than 100 yards from the same freeway, so 0-60 times are irrelevant to me. I'm just hoping the top end AWD model has at-speed acceleration that's better than, say, a Focus ST.

 

[mwulff]

Acceleration comes from the from a combination of pack voltage and how many amps you can draw from the pack. At the moment tesla uses around 400 volts on their current pack design. If memory serves there are 16 modules in series in the pack with each having 6 groups of cells.

Now when they reduce the pack size they will have to choose between voltage or capacity. They only have room for so many cells inside the car. I believe they will lower the voltage a bit to get more capacity.

If you redid the model s pack to let's say 296V you could cram more kWh into the pack by adding more parallel cells to each module. But your max output would be lower.

I think they will go for a lower voltage and as much capacity as they can cram into the smaller car-frame.

 

[coco81]

Acceleration comes from the from a combination of pack voltage and how many amps you can draw from the pack. At the moment tesla uses around 400 volts on their current pack design. If memory serves there are 16 modules in series in the pack with each having 6 groups of cells.

Now when they reduce the pack size they will have to choose between voltage or capacity. They only have room for so many cells inside the car. I believe they will lower the voltage a bit to get more capacity.

If you redid the model s pack to let's say 296V you could cram more kWh into the pack by adding more parallel cells to each module. But your max output would be lower.

I think they will go for a lower voltage and as much capacity as they can cram into the smaller car-frame.

I think model 3 will have (more or less) the same battery pack voltage than model S for supercharger compability. And I also think that the smaller battery version (basic 35000$ or dual drive ¿40000$?) will have similar performance due to the maximum output power available from the battery (remember model S 40KWh performances). The bigger battery model 3 (¿70KWh?) will be much faster than the basic model 3 (both single or dual drive versions).

 

[Yggdrasill]

Acceleration comes from the from a combination of pack voltage and how many amps you can draw from the pack. At the moment tesla uses around 400 volts on their current pack design. If memory serves there are 16 modules in series in the pack with each having 6 groups of cells.

Now when they reduce the pack size they will have to choose between voltage or capacity. They only have room for so many cells inside the car. I believe they will lower the voltage a bit to get more capacity.

If you redid the model s pack to let's say 296V you could cram more kWh into the pack by adding more parallel cells to each module. But your max output would be lower.

I think they will go for a lower voltage and as much capacity as they can cram into the smaller car-frame.

You've misunderstood how it works. The number of given cells dictates the capacity, regardless of how they are configured. Cells in parallel have their Ah added together, while cells in series adds the voltage together.

Say you have 10,000 cells with 4V and 2.5 Ah. You can configure them in one long series, giving you a pack with 40 kV and 2.5 Ah. Or a capacity of 2.5 Ah * 40 kV = 100 kWh. Or you can wire all the cells in parallell, giving you a pack with 4 V and 25 kAh. Or a capacity of 4V * 25 kAh = 100 kWh.

The voltage is selected not because the capacity or power is different, but because some voltages are easier to work with. Lower voltage is better because it's less dangerous and you need less insulation on the wires, higher voltage is better because the resistive losses will be less, and you need less copper to conduct a given power. 400-ish Volts is a good compromise.

I would expect the Model 3 to have a voltage similar to the Model S.