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Speed of Model X ramp up (rough numbers)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by blakegallagher, Jun 2, 2014.

  1. blakegallagher

    Jul 21, 2012
    South Texas
    So Elon mentioned in the earnings call that this ramp up would happen very fast and they needed to make sure and have the design right so they did not have to issue any recalls. I believe either Spring or late spring was mentioned for when the ramp up would begin. The model X tally page ( Model X Tally ) list the current worldwide totals just over 15k. New orders reserved through the website show a fall 2015 delivery date for new reservations.

    This means roughly they are planning on cranking these out at average run rate of 30k a year from spring to fall which is pretty impressive. Would love anyone to correct any errors in my assumptions :)
  2. johnnyS

    johnnyS Member

    Sep 8, 2011
    Tesla has experience with the model S reservation list. Once they list prices and options a lot will change. We were practically 5000 on the reservation list and we ended up with vin #24XX. A lot of people will delay confirming their order and some will drop off the list.
  3. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

    Feb 3, 2013
    Chicagoland ModelX S603
  4. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

    Apr 3, 2011
    Northern Virginia
    My 2c: from an investor perspective any calculations on the X ramp up need to be taken with a ton of salt. We don't even know for definite when production will actually start (and it's moved several times already) and, as much as we can assume that Tesla learned lots from the S ramp, we also have to acknowledge that AWD, seats, doors etc (among other major items) are all new to the X.

    By all means have some fun guessing (maybe in the Model X section?) but it would be foolish to make any financial bets one year out.
  5. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

    Apr 27, 2013
    Vancouver, BC
    I haven't had time to update the numbers since the latest quarterly Q&A call. Since they took off 'deliveries starting end of 2014' from the website, I talked to Tesla of when to expect the start of signature deliveries. I did get a response that my question was forwarded to management, so was waiting a response before updating. Now that the shareholder meeting re-confirms production in spring/mid 2015, perhaps I'll update it with that assumption if I don't hear in the next week. Of course this is all pure guesstimates!
  6. Bgarret

    Bgarret Model 3 ownin' Michigan scofflaw

    May 10, 2013
    I would put a caveat on the production start. Elon seems pretty consistent that VOLUME production will start in Q2 of 2015. Even when he was talking about the engineering challenges today he was pretty firm about volume production starting in Q2 2015.

    I don't know about the rest of ya'll (written like the Yankee that I am) but when the designer of Model S, Falcon, Falcon Heavy and Dragon 1 & 2 says he is "exited" by the design of My Next Model X car...I'm good. My optimistic guess would be Signatures in Q1 2015 and 5000 - 7000 per quarter for the remainder of 2015. Good luck to Bonnie on her delivery and I hope for 9898. In August of 2015.
  7. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

    Feb 28, 2013
    Bgarret - no joke. Dragon, Falcon and Falcon Heavy are all great designs in and of themselves - let alone the Dragon2. I think it's hard for any of us, let alone a bunch of hedge fund guys in manhattan, to really grasp how Elon has created Tesla and SpaceX to be the best car and rocket engineering companies in the world. Not just the technical advances, but also the speed and cost.

    its like that old adage was never true - "you can have speed, quality or cost. You can even have two, but you can't have them all"
  8. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

    Jun 7, 2012
    In addition, I think Elon is adding 4th (analogue and hardest) dimension (ala S Jobs). The natural human aesthetic of art and desire.
    His goal, you can have all 4!

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