SR Goldilocks Range and Effectiveness

[Pilot1226]

Hello,

It’s been a while since I’ve been on the forums. I was able to trade in my leased Forester without penalty back to Subaru and purchased (financed) a 2021 Outback XT. Great car, but disposable in the sense that I am only looking to get 10 years out of it because of the mechanicals: turbo engine typically has less reliability than a naturally aspirated engine, CVT reliability is a little scattered, especially for the “high torque” variant in this car, and gas mileage is pretty lousy. 18 mpg means I’ll pay between $2000-2500 for gas this year compared to a conservative estimate of around $600-700 for electricity for the same driving.

I don’t off-road. I drive a mix of city and highway depending on traffic and time of year. Work does not have chargers but I have a V3 Super within 5 miles of work that I could use on my lunch hour as needed. I work in person - no telecommuting here.

Commute through option 1 is about 50% 55mph highway and 50% heavy urban city with traffic and lights. 10 miles each way. Takes about 25-30 minutes normally.

Commute option 2 is 90% 65mph toll highway and the rest is my suburban commute to the highway. About 17 miles each way. Tolls cost about $2.50 each way.

Aside from work with the kids playing sports I’m usually good for around another 30-50 mile per week total with all their stuff. Errands are close.

In summer is my concern: coming from shore areas I will be commuting to work about 60 miles each way on 65 mph toll highway. I may or may not have access to charging overnight. On this route I have a V2 Supercharger at about 20 miles north of destination, and then again in about another 30-40 mile I have the V3 adjacent to work that I could use.

Trying to figure out what I can expect for watt hours per mile, especially in the longer summer trips. I don’t go to the shore often in winter so the range loss to heating is not a concern. I will typically drive around posted speed plus 5, for efficiency/fuel economy.

Here is the heart of my question:

244 miles of range.

Keeping it in the Goldilocks zone of 20-80% SOC, that gives me about 146.6 miles of range (244x60%)

When degradation kicks in, which I’ll estimate at 10% a few years down the road, that would be a loss of 24 miles off the top. That brings it to 220, x60%, would be 132 miles. Not enough to go to the shore, then back to work, without charging.

Now I recognize that I can mitigate this by charging at either destination. Shore at best would be 120V15A charging. Not my house - think rental.

But, the thing is, is that 244 factored in at a 333 Watts per mile figure or something else, and how does that compare to what actual drivers are getting?

I would not want to freeze myself out in the summer but I am thinking air set to 67-68 would probably be ideal. I would be willing to concede to 70 if it greatly improved range.

ABRP is still a beta figure for the SR so I thought I’d ask here.

thanks!

(Outside NYC area. We get snow but I would either do winters or put all weathers on there like the CrossClimate)

 

[jcanoe]

You are in control of your driving efficiency (except for loss of range due to cold temperatures.) If you can be disciplined, hold your highway speed to no more than 65 MPH you should be fine. The EV owners who consistently complain about range and efficiency feel they have to drive at 75+.

In the Tesla Model Y the HVAC usage will have much less impact on your range and efficiency than does your highway speed. In my experience the Tesla Model Y HVAC settings for summer: Auto 73F, winter: Auto 69F or 70F work well. I use the seat heater(s), my Model Y does not have the heated steering wheel.

Since the Standard Range Mode Y is now only available off menu, you may want to consider a used Long Range Model Y. In a year or so there will be a wide selection of CPO Long Range Model Y vehicles.

 

[Pilot1226]

You are in control of your driving efficiency (except for loss of range due to cold temperatures.) If you can be disciplined, hold your highway speed to no more than 65 MPH you should be fine. The EV owners who consistently complain about range and efficiency feel they have to drive at 75+.

In the Tesla Model Y the HVAC usage will have much less impact on your range and efficiency than does your highway speed. In my experience the Tesla Model Y HVAC settings for summer: Auto 73F, winter: Auto 69F or 70F work well. I use the seat heater(s), my Model Y does not have the heated steering wheel.

Since the Standard Range Mode Y is now only available off menu, you may want to consider a used Long Range Model Y. In a year or so there will be a wide selection of CPO Long Range Model Y vehicles.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Off menu just means I have to call and order it, right? There would be no on site inventory… I am fine with waiting.

I am a fan of the refreshed interior and would not want to have the first year run of it due to growing pains. I also believe that I can’t get the reimbursement for tax credits both federal and state level with a CPO one.

 

[jcanoe]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Off menu just means I have to call and order it, right? There would be no on site inventory… I am fine with waiting.

I am a fan of the refreshed interior and would not want to have the first year run of it due to growing pains. I also believe that I can’t get the reimbursement for tax credits both federal and state level with a CPO one.

The Federal Tax credit, if this is ever extended for companies such as Tesla that have already sold over 200k vehicles, would only apply to new vehicle sales.

To use the Tesla Off Menu option you have to contact your local Sales Center or call Tesla directly. Then Tesla will try and match you with a an inventory Standard Range Model Y model. You can't order the Standard Range Model Y as with the Long Range or Performance Model Y but right now and in the future Tesla may produce a limited number of Standard Range Model Y vehicles. One down side is that when you are ready to purchase you may have to wait for Tesla to produce more Standard Range Model Y vehicles.

 

[Pilot1226]

Right, so I wouldn't want to consider Used, because then I'd lose the potential for the $7000 FTC and $5000 NJ TC/Instant Rebate when they come out. I'd have to wait. My hands are tied. Those rebates/credits will help me with the "loss" on depreciation I'm going to take by trading in a 6 month old/12 month old Subaru.

Thanks for the info about the off menu stuff. I guess I'd have to take my chances. I can't rush this. Who knows, maybe they'll hit the magic number of 250 miles, make it slightly more expensive or improve the battery technology, and I can go back into the SR.

 

[jcanoe]

We will never know but indications are that the SR MY was just not selling enough units to justify keeping this configuration. This was after dropping the price by $2k. There were reports from Tesla owners/enthusiasts around the US. One, in Virginia Beach, stated that the Tesla Sales Center in Virginia Beach had 15 unsold SR MY. Another observation, from California, stated that their local Tesla Sales Center had placed signs on several SR MY that stated "Take Me Home Today!" The only thing missing was Cal Worthington!

 

[Pilot1226]

Haha. If they send some up to NJ I will be happy to take one!

 

[Rocky_H]

244 miles of range.

Keeping it in the Goldilocks zone of 20-80% SOC, that gives me about 146.6 miles of range (244x60%)

When degradation kicks in, which I’ll estimate at 10% a few years down the road, that would be a loss of 24 miles off the top. That brings it to 220, x60%, would be 132 miles. Not enough to go to the shore, then back to work, without charging.

You really don't have to be that uptight about keeping within 20%-80%. You seem to be treating this like throughout the life of the car it must never go outside of that range for any reason. And that's way unnecessary to be that strict. And you're talking about this hypothetical extra long trip you might like to use. Well--that's when you can use more of the car's range than keeping yourself too restricted in that 20-80% straightjacket.

I mean the car's screen itself shows that for constant regular daily use, you can pick a charge limit somewhere between 50-90%, so going above 80% as needed isn't terrible for even pretty frequent use. And then the 90-100% area is marked for "Trips", so you could use that higher level that day for your...trip. And on the low end, if you are traveling on a trip, if you are going to be arriving to a charging point where it's not going to sit really low for a long time, that's not bad to get down to 10-15% for a while if you're going to be recharging soon.

 

[Pilot1226]

Fair enough. I'm concerned about backing myself into a situation where I have to DCFC every time I do a round-trip to/from shore areas. I don't mind if I accomplish it during a lunch hour - 30 minutes at a SuperCharger is probably plenty! - but I don't want to have to get out of a shift at midnight, drive to the shore, and then turn around and drive back the next day, and along that leg or two stop to DCFC. Things are kind of sideways with shiftwork now anyway with the pandemic and avoidance of mixing crews together, but still, it won't last forever.

From what I understand - through your posts and others here - degradation is most prevalent at the highest and lowest states of charge. Some is unavoidable. Some can be mitigated by staying as close to 50% SOC as possible since the battery seems to be happiest and least stressed at this point. But, degradation can and will happen, and the more you stray away from that 50th percentile SOC, the faster it happens, exponentially. So, 90-100% will do more stress than 80-90%, for example. But, with degradation, what happens when 100% becomes 90%? And so on, and so forth.

I appreciate the concern. Now help me help the Mrs. understand why this is a good idea to trade in my 2021 Subaru I bought last year. She is not keen on the flashy image of Tesla, but I am aware that the $30-40k price point is not necessarily flashy. I'm on board, and ready to sign up. But happy wife, happy life.

 

[angus[Y]oung]

I appreciate the concern. Now help me help the Mrs. understand why this is a good idea to trade in my 2021 Subaru I bought last year. She is not keen on the flashy image of Tesla, but I am aware that the $30-40k price point is not necessarily flashy. I'm on board, and ready to sign up. But happy wife, happy life.

@Pilot1226 I definitely wouldn't consider a Model Y as flashy. To be honest, I don't think it makes very good financial sense to trade in a nearly-new vehicle to get yourself a Tesla. You take the majority of depreciation in that first 1-2 years, and trade-in values are almost always less than if you were to sell privately. If you're looking at the economics of saving fuel costs with the lower bill for electricity, bear in mind you're also going to be eating a big chunk of depreciation on your trade-in which is going to offset that rather significantly. If you're looking at it from an environmental aspect, well kudos I suppose. I mean don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to convince you not to do this if you're really set on it, but I'd take a careful look at the numbers, as objectively as possible. You might be better to get a few years use out of your Subaru and then look at picking up an electric vehicle?

 

[Pilot1226]

I guess so. I’m a numbers kind of guy. Every year I drive the Subaru will cost me around $2000 in fuel. I elected for the turbo engine which was supposed to be rated for 23/30 and I am around 18 with mostly highway driving. I “optimistically” calculated my yearly fuel cost using $3 for fuel and 20 mpg and 12k miles.
Conversely I am looking at around 4 MW per year of power, at 20 cents per kW, which is $800.

So out of the gate every year I am losing $1200 in fuel costs. Second, because of said turbo in severe driving (city) oil changes are $75 x4 times a year - every 3000 miles so the turbo doesn’t explode. That’s another $300.

The tax credits are going to make or break it for me. A swing of $12,000 on top of the fuel costs is enough to push me over the edge but my wife hates the idea of a Tesla. Yes, it’s not flashy, and it is not an expensive car - after all taxes and fees, this Subaru was close to $40,000.

Don’t know. Just worried the Subaru will blow up out of warranty since it is a turbo. Their track record for Turbo engines and CVT reliability isn’t that great outside the 6y/50k powertrain they give you.

I was just so tired of the droney 2.5 NA engine I knew I wanted something faster.

 

[angus[Y]oung]

@Pilot1226 so it sounds like you'll save approx $1500/yr driving a Tesla over the Subaru, based on your calculations. Do you know what you would get for the Subaru as a trade-in, aka how far upside down are you on your loan?

I know you're concerned about the long-term reliability, but it sounds like you have 6yrs or 50k (not sure what your average yearly driving amount is typically) to not worry about it before really needing to offload it.

 

[DanDi58]

I think your estimate of 10% battery degradation is a bit high.

 

[Pilot1226]

@Pilot1226 so it sounds like you'll save approx $1500/yr driving a Tesla over the Subaru, based on your calculations. Do you know what you would get for the Subaru as a trade-in, aka how far upside down are you on your loan?

I know you're concerned about the long-term reliability, but it sounds like you have 6yrs or 50k (not sure what your average yearly driving amount is typically) to not worry about it before really needing to offload it.

It’s complicated. The car was purchased for around 35,500. I added a 10 year 100k mile manufacturer extended warranty called the SAS Gold Plus plan that I can use at any Subaru dealer. Each repair has deductible of $100 per instance. That was $1570. Adding in state sales tax was another $2500, and $400 documentation fee.

I am able to cancel the warranty with a small $50 administrative fee at any time before the manufacturer warranty runs out at 3/36 (powertrain is 5/60). Not sure if I can cancel the telemetrics package I bought but that was only like $300 for 7 years - negligible in the long run.

My loan just kicked in this last month - some type of voodoo they do with 0% financing for 63 months, it took a while for it to kick in.

At present, I owe about $36500 on it. The quote from Carvana was about $33000. I agree the depreciation will reduce as times goes on. I’m willing to accept the $3500 loss as I view about $2500 of it as state sales tax that was rolled into the loan. So, I’m hoping with low miles, and the hope of the two tax credits coming back, I will make it work.

I am curious about the loan though. Assuming I finance it, does it get financed at 39,990? And then I guess when I get the cash back at tax refund time, I can apply it to the loan as an extra principal payment. Or, I can put around $10,000 down and just reimburse the account I pull from when I get it. That would allow me to do 48 months and keep it roughly the same payment I’m doing now.

I think your estimate of 10% battery degradation is a bit high.

I hope so. As @Rocky_H pointed out I was probably over-micro-managing the Goldilocks zone. But the concern over getting myself into the whole “can’t do a round trip” to work/shore concern is real without stopping. Not true range anxiety - I’m fine with that. I’m sure when I replace the stocks with all weather tires there will be an efficiency hit as well.

perhaps you can educate me: the AWD won’t operate if either the front or rear motors fail, right? It’s not like there is a failsafe is there?

 

[DanDi58]

perhaps you can educate me: the AWD won’t operate if either the front or rear motors fail, right? It’s not like there is a failsafe is there?

Well, yes, for sure the AWD won't be available if either motor isn't working - but since the rear motor is the primary, the car won't operate at all if that motor fails. And I believe that the same is true for the front motor - I think I've seen a couple of situations here or on FB where folks have had front motor failures and the car won't run. Of course, the same would be true for an ICE vehicle.... ;-)

 

[Pilot1226]

Well, yes, for sure the AWD won't be available if either motor isn't working - but since the rear motor is the primary, the car won't operate at all if that motor fails. And I believe that the same is true for the front motor - I think I've seen a couple of situations here or on FB where folks have had front motor failures and the car won't run. Of course, the same would be true for an ICE vehicle.... ;-)

Absolutely. I was just looking to see if it was another “perk” or not. That might have been enough to push me over for an AWD.

I’ve spent/wasted the last couple hours mapping everything related to my daily drives in ABRP. Everything is looking good. Even found a few free public J1772 chargers near one of my kids’ sports practices, so it will be good enough to dump another 7 kW into the battery for the hour I am sitting there.

I don’t know if I mentioned it before… I don’t have room for 240V and can’t get it without an expensive panel replacement. The best I can do is a 120V20A dedicated circuit. That would provide at minimum between 50-75 miles of range daily, which far exceeds my energy needs. I’m also looking to see if NJ would allow me to have a credit if I installed a charger at the same time as I did a panel upgrade. 30% off the 2500 panel job might be enough to make it worth it.

Mapping out the summer drive seems to be the most difficult part. Again with the uncertainty of not knowing if I can charge at destination is a potential problem. At best it would be 120V, which would essentially give me somewhere around 40ish miles before I would have to turn around and head back.

The issue is the return leg. I was able to map a route from work to the Jersey Gardens V3 Supercharger, which I could do on my lunch break and get it up to ~80%. At quick glance it appears I use around 40% battery with the SR each way. That seems high, and I set 0C on purpose. Changing the temperature to 20C seems to get me down and back to work. From there I have enough range to hit the V3.

If work / when work gets 240V charging, I am conservatively estimating a 5 kW equivalent. That would be like a 14-30 type of outlet. That would allow me to bypass destination charging altogether if I needed to.

Otherwise, I would be looking at having to DCFC at some point, whether it be on the lunch hour or on the way to/from work. Again the 120V would provide cushion and I would do that to take some pressure off the Supercharger but it’s comforting to see that this just might work

Again some concerns about accelerated degradation due to the potential heavy DCFC use, which would have a feedback loop, but it just might work…

Assuming I can change the Mrs.’ mind.

 

[jcanoe]

If you have capacity to add a dedicated 120V/20A circuit you should be able to make this a 240V/20A circuit. Consult with an electrician. If this is an existing 120V dedicated circuit, then this can be converted to a 240V circuit without running new wire.

 

[Pilot1226]

Thanks. It is an existing 120V20A circuit with an unused attic “whole house fan”. We had central air installed a few years ago and they installed a subpanel for the circuits.

However, there is no room to upgrade as stated by 3 different electricians. One of them was the Tesla suggested installer. The other two local. Basically everything had been combined, tandem’ed or whatever. There’s no room for anything else.

I believe I would be fine with 120V20A home charging, especially after work installs something - anything - even 120V. 40 miles of range over 8 hours of charging is still 4x my commute will use.

There is also a V2 Supercharger on the way home off the Turnpike in Kearny, if I am in a pinch.

 

[jcanoe]

if you provide a close up photo of your existing panel and sub panel perhaps someone on the forum can recommend a solution.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If you won't have overnight charging for a significant part of the year, go long range, or just don't buy a BEV.

But I'd say focus on having AC charging wherever you are in summer, and then you should be good.