SR lowest depreciation (highest relative trade in)?

[golfcart]

I am curious about forum members thoughts (or experience) with Tesla trade in or private party sales.

My theory is that you should get the highest private party resale and Tesla should give the best trade-in values (when compared to purchase price) on the SR model. I feel this way because:

1. To Tesla an SR is identical to an SR+, so if they take it in as a trade they can resell it as such.
2. Tesla has no real need to compensate you for FSD or Autopilot if you trade the car since the hardware is present on all models and they can enable it on all models.
   
3. On the private market getting an SR seems like buying the cheapest house in a nice neighborhood. A lot of people just want any Tesla and having the lowest priced model lets price yours very competitively while still retaining a lot of value.
   
4. Because the battery is limited to (roughly) 90% you are guaranteed that it wasn't regularly charged to 100% and (all things equal) assume the battery should be very healthy.

I know the resale market is weird right now because demand is greater than supply, but that won't last forever. How do y'all see the depreciation playing out across the various trim levels and features? Do you think the lack of autopilot on an SR would be a deal breaker for a lot of buyers? Do you think Tesla will give lower trade in values on an SR vs SR+ just to avoid creating bad optics even though the two cars are identical from their perspective? Does FSD hold it's value on the resale market or with trade ins?

 

[newtonfb]

I believe the SR or SR+ will be the best value down the road. Even in 3 years time the Model 3 will still be $30k atleast brand new. Most ppl who buy used don't care about 2 seconds difference from 0-60 or if they have a sub woofer in the back. If they can buy a M3 for 20-$25k they'll sell easily. The car keeps getting better with software updates so except for a few minor things it should have all the newer features as a new one.

 

[JBailey895]

I wonder about this issue too. . . As a buyer in the market for an M3, when I loook through Autotrader or Carvana, I quickly dismiss the "strippers" with the base batteries, and look for LR, AWD and P first. However, most used cars are asking more than it costs to buy new, especially with an SR/+. Puzzles me why someone would buy used in that scenario. . .

I would presume any used buyer would want to get the highest trim at the lowest price, but things are going to change, rather dramatically, in the next year. The fed tax credit goes away in two weeks. The first M3's (2017) are coming off lease, but they are "closed end", so Tesla will get a fleet of used cars to sell. There will be a million 3's on the road soon, and many with sell/trade to get the Y, meaning on the used car side, supply will increase, demand will decrease, and prices should push down.

For me, the tease of the measly $1875 fed tax credit seems to push me to buy before EOY, but really the deals will be plentiful in 6-12 mos. . . . Logic tells me to wait, passion tells me to buy. lol

From a sales side, selling now is a great idea, since the fed tax credit is going away, and likely the new car price will reduce to reflect that. Since most (except maybe CA) can't get the credit anymore, but the price is still artificially inflated (SR+ increased $1k in the last Q), now is the time to sell, if you're going to. . . just my .02.

 

[EricUSC]

Base cars with few options have historically retained a higher percentage of their new value than loaded versions of the same cars. I don't believe Tesla will be any different, so a Model 3 SR will probably retain the highest percentage of its value compared to the more expensive Model 3s.

 

[Matsayz]

I’d like it if Tesla let you pick their own cars on their site for trade-in value.

And not to throw this thread too off-topic but why is FSD not transferable to your next Tesla vehicle? I understand if I have a 2019 SR+ w/ FSD and sell it then try to buy a 2022 version and it’s not back to back cars obviously but if I get in a wreck and they total the car or I want to upgrade from an SR+ to a LR... cmon, maybe a transfer fee but not the whole price all over again

 

[TomB985]

Is a relatively easy concept, best understood when taken to extremes.

EVERY vehicle will eventually depreciate to nothing, but they have varying curves getting there depending upon numerous factors. The overall majority of it seems to be perception, which is loosely related to fact.

Since they will all finish at zero anyway, you lose less by starting lower. Every single time.

 

[MXWing]

@golfcart

The 3SR is the cheapest car in the nice neighborhood.

It will lose the least compared to other trims.

The issue you are missing is are you willing to give up AP for years of ownership to prevent an additional loss of 2K?

You might not even lose that much but the point is anything you invest AP wise you will recapture some of it back.

 

[golfcart]

@golfcart

The 3SR is the cheapest car in the nice neighborhood.

It will lose the least compared to other trims.

The issue you are missing is are you willing to give up AP for years of ownership to prevent an additional loss of 2K?

You might not even lose that much but the point is anything you invest AP wise you will recapture some of it back.

i really don’t care about autopilot aside from adaptive cruise control. I’m not gonna buy a fast fun car just to let the computer drive it for me. I’m just looking at this as a financial exercise. The Tesla resale market is just a mystery to me right now and I’m trying to understand all of the variables.

 

[golfcart]

Is a relatively easy concept, best understood when taken to extremes.

EVERY vehicle will eventually depreciate to nothing, but they have varying curves getting there depending upon numerous factors. The overall majority of it seems to be perception, which is loosely related to fact.

Since they will all finish at zero anyway, you lose less by starting lower. Every single time.

that’s true of you intend to drive it into the ground but if it is just a stepping stone they definitely do not finish at zero. They finish at what you paid minus what you flip it for minus what you spent to maintain it.

 

[TomB985]

that’s true of you intend to drive it into the ground but if it is just a stepping stone they definitely do not finish at zero. They finish at what you paid minus what you flip it for minus what you spent to maintain it.

Correct. But the curves just aren't that different, which means the lower-priced model loses less as time goes on. It's got a lot shorter of a drop on its way to zero.

I've bought and sold a LOT of cars in the last 20 years, and I can't recall a model that differed from this model. The more expen$ive trims ALWAYS lost more than lower trims at every stage I've owned them.

 

[daver3]

i really don’t care about autopilot aside from adaptive cruise control. I’m not gonna buy a fast fun car just to let the computer drive it for me. I’m just looking at this as a financial exercise. The Tesla resale market is just a mystery to me right now and I’m trying to understand all of the variables.

I wouldn't dismiss AP just because it's fun to drive (I love to drive it too), but the 30 miles home from work in rain and high traffic is much more relaxing when I "barely" have to pay attention. I find situations where I don't even know where I am on the road home because I'm so relaxed.

 

[MXWing]

i really don’t care about autopilot aside from adaptive cruise control. I’m not gonna buy a fast fun car just to let the computer drive it for me. I’m just looking at this as a financial exercise. The Tesla resale market is just a mystery to me right now and I’m trying to understand all of the variables.

Unless you already own a Tesla and have significant miles of experience under AP, you are selling it short.

It's an OPTION to use AP, not an obligation. And that option is GREAT.

I can min/max with the best of them but I look at VALUE, not strictly lowest $.

3SR+, Aero Wheels, White paint.

Best bang for the buck.

 

[Az_Rael]

I think no AP cars will be more difficult to sell. It is akin to the old no tech package Model S's. They don't come with navigation, powered hatch, a lot of the features that are now "standard" for the S.

 

[MXWing]

I think no AP cars will be more difficult to sell. It is akin to the old no tech package Model S's. They don't come with navigation, powered hatch, a lot of the features that are now "standard" for the S.

Good point unless you were an uninformed consumer.

Deciding to get a used SR and then paying $4,500 more for AP and + makes no sense.

You'd find an SR+ for $2,000 more.

 

[golfcart]

I think no AP cars will be more difficult to sell. It is akin to the old no tech package Model S's. They don't come with navigation, powered hatch, a lot of the features that are now "standard" for the S.

Now that is an interesting point on the used market but what about a trade in to Tesla? From their perspective an SR is identical to an SR+ with FSD so would they offer the same for both cars? Does that mean that anyone buying autopilot or FSD would have to do a private sale to get their value back or would Tesla give an SR+ with FSD a higher trade in just to keep the customers happy?

 

[golfcart]

Unless you already own a Tesla and have significant miles of experience under AP, you are selling it short.

It's an OPTION to use AP, not an obligation. And that option is GREAT.

I can min/max with the best of them but I look at VALUE, not strictly lowest $.

3SR+, Aero Wheels, White paint.

Best bang for the buck.

That’s a fair point. My experience with auto pilot is limited to my test drive where the guy basically gave me the keycard and said come back in an hour. It just didn’t strike me as a must have though I may be wrong.

 

[OCR1]

The 3SR is a very good value at $35K (assuming it’s still that price). If you don’t need the extra range and don’t care about auto pilot it’s a lot of car for the money. Your thoughts on depreciation are likely accurate. The entry level models tend to depreciate less percentage wise overall.

The LR RWD is probably still a better overall car for holding its value in the long run, but since you can’t buy them any more I guess it doesn’t matter for now.

 

[TMThree]

Traditionally, the highest optioned Teslas lose the most, which is what happens to most cars. Just look at the performance 3 owners who paid 60-70k for their cars.

If you're talking about desirability - ask yourself if you were in the market for a used model S, would you prefer a 60 or 100 kwh battery? Also when it comes to older vehicles and battery degradation, the more cells you have, the less the loss matters. Percentage wise they should all suffer a % decline, but if you're charging to 90% and dropping down to 10% before recharging on a road trip... and your car has 12% capacity loss, it hits harder on the lower trim.

You can measure an EV based on $ per mile, and the LR RWD model 3 is the best value of any vehicle Tesla sells right now. When Cybertruck is released, the 70k for 500 mile range will just about match it. That assumes you actually need a 500 mile range though.

All that said, paying $35k to get into a Model 3 is pretty fantastic, especially since it has the same glass roof and interior as the premium trim.

 

[Az_Rael]

would Tesla give an SR+ with FSD a higher trade in just to keep the customers happy?

Tesla doesn't do trade in incentives to make sales like a traditional dealer currently. However, they get more and more traditional dealer like every year, so that is always possible.

 

[MXWing]

Now that is an interesting point on the used market but what about a trade in to Tesla? From their perspective an SR is identical to an SR+ with FSD so would they offer the same for both cars? Does that mean that anyone buying autopilot or FSD would have to do a private sale to get their value back or would Tesla give an SR+ with FSD a higher trade in just to keep the customers happy?

If the only objective was to maximize trade in value to Tesla, yes the SR with no options is going to give you the most. I don't see why you would want to do that however. You can own AP/SR+ for 4500 more and capture half of that at least by selling private.

Tesla takes in cars as a "convenience". A convenience that comes with a hefty convenience fee.

Some of the dumbest posts I've ever seen around here usually starts with "My car lost 48% value in 12 months because Tesla only offered XXXXX".

Max convenience and max return are two things that never go together.

That’s a fair point. My experience with auto pilot is limited to my test drive where the guy basically gave me the keycard and said come back in an hour. It just didn’t strike me as a must have though I may be wrong.

Yes you are wrong but you have the chance to learn from experienced people before making that purchase and regretting later.

I have a 3P with FSD and I spent my last two hundred miles on AP. There are times I want to conserve energy so I let autosteer do its thing. Sometimes I want to go 10-15 over the highway limit and let AP do the lane centering while I scan traffic. Sometimes I want to change a song in spotify, crack open a cold one. I let autosteer manage distance and position while I'm doing that.

If some loud ICE car is driving like a dip *sugar* pulls up to me, I disable AP.

It's all about having options.

The 3SR is a very good value at $35K (assuming it’s still that price). If you don’t need the extra range and don’t care about auto pilot it’s a lot of car for the money. Your thoughts on depreciation are likely accurate. The entry level models tend to depreciate less percentage wise overall.

The LR RWD is probably still a better overall car for holding its value in the long run, but since you can’t buy them any more I guess it doesn’t matter for now.

Guaranteed it's not 35K anymore since Tesla bumped up everything that was not a P when it came to 3's.

Over the time of ownership, I really can't see NOT paying 2-2.5K for autosteer. I'd cheap out on paint, wheel options, anything else.