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With the amount of money Tesla is worth... Wouldn't you think they have a better tracking system on cars then the old "Guess-O-Meter"

Just saying... I can go into Subway and watch my sandwich get made in follow the process through finish

Would be great to have Tesla update you on the process "Your car is being made on this date", "Today is the day your care is being created", "Congrats your car is created here is your VIN"
I just cannot believe since this is a "Custom Car" and it's being made just for you they cannot get a handle on that, I understand the BIG3 since they just pump cars out like it's milk...

Oh well guess that's why I do what I do for a living and Musk does what Musk does for a living 🙃

I am strongly convinced they know very well how the building goes. What they can’t and where I guess the shifting goes is the distribution which uses 3rd parties and the matching. This is a NP-hard problem involving matching 184000 units to 184000 customers. You should thankful is as “precise” as it currently is to begin with.
 
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I wanted to elaborate a bit more on my post about order matching.

Based on my knowledge of supply chain management (I do not work in supply chain but do in logistics in transportation which is similar enough and my brothers are process engineers so I kinda know a thing or two about factory pipelines).

How it basically works is that you have a queue of cars with a pair a assigned numbers. The global order build number and the for that config order build number. The former dictates the date of build. The later dictates the per config queueing number. There could be regional attributes as well on that label.

On the other hand, you have a queue of customers with a global placed order number and a per config placed order number.

On a per region basis, if you want to show wall street good numbers, you need to start counting backward from last day of the quarter what is your lastest possible build date. It means that, assuming order config is 100% static (which it isn't) if you as a customer place your order after that date, it's guaranteed you won't get your car in the current quarter's batch. In practice with people placing orders on hold, changing config etc, you could "luck out" and get in among that last few or the reverse (if someone ahead of you in the queue revert from another config to yours bumping you outside the current quarter).

Between that date and the end of the quarter, the cars can't be rerouted elsewhere. Europe orders for instance get shipped early 2nd month of the quarter. This implies that Europe builts essentially cannot be built to order. They are probably statistically forecast and sent. You can be lucky and select a highly available config or one that isn't which will drive if you need to wait 2 quarters or not. Another aspect for EU is that it's now getting from mixed sources - China and USA. Not sure if the MiC for EU is exclusively going to UK since they both share the goofy driving wheel side or if they also build standard driving side.

From the factory side of things, the main sources of disruptions will be on assembly lines issus (i.e. a machine broke on that shift which threw off XYZ region arrival forecast) or supplies (running out of aero wheels). From the delivery side of things, the three main drivers are 1) customers changing their minds (putting order on hold, going off hold, changing config, cancelling, changing delivery location) 2) distribution supply (truckers, trains, customs - in covid there are regions with curfews which increases lead time in introduce randomness etc) 3) new orders coming in relative to current day from start of quarter.

So when you reach out to your SAs, the things they probably know are a) on average, you will get your car before end of quarter but we can't know which until you get your VIN (which coincide with that car being committed to transit to your delivery SC) b) As long as we don't get VINs, we can't give any precise info on when you will get your car c) all inventory gets moved out within the quarter at every SC. They can't know where you sit in this. Because SO many people keep changing their damn minds all the time.

TL;DR want to get your car fast? Order first day of quarter and never ever change anything from your order among your config and deliver location.
 
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Article just appeared stating that there are between 10000 and 20000 Teslas on delivery hold at the Fremont lot, a logistical nightmare. Apparently, these vehicles have small faults that can be fixed at local service centres/centers.
No “faults”—a missing part that is easy enough to swap in that the service centers will be doing it.

fault implies “defect”—which isn’t the case.
 
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I see some people got some dates back on from the number of weeks that your order was placed. I am still sitting with :(
1621360498608.png
 
With the amount of money Tesla is worth... Wouldn't you think they have a better tracking system on cars then the old "Guess-O-Meter"

Just saying... I can go into Subway and watch my sandwich get made in follow the process through finish

Would be great to have Tesla update you on the process "Your car is being made on this date", "Today is the day your care is being created", "Congrats your car is created here is your VIN"
I just cannot believe since this is a "Custom Car" and it's being made just for you they cannot get a handle on that, I understand the BIG3 since they just pump cars out like it's milk...

Oh well guess that's why I do what I do for a living and Musk does what Musk does for a living 🙃
We've ordered a custom trimmed 2019 Jeep Compass and we were told at the dealership it'd be 4 - 6 weeks. The next time we heard from our Jeep sales associate was the day the car was ready to pick up. We're lucky we get an updated estimated delivery page that we can check with Tesla. I'd argue, that Tesla having that estimated delivery page, drives people nuts more than if they didn't have an estimation. If we were all just given a time frame in weeks like the order page has, we'd have a lot less upset people about their dates moving around. Oh and comparing a Subway sandwich to a complex network of logistics consisting of freight train networks shipping cars to hub cities then moving to a complex network of car transport semis to regionally deliver to the delivery location is hilarious.
 
You would not be waiting 3 months as you would maximize your chances of being first in line form the first deliveries. The only factor remaining would be which config compared to yours will come in first. The alternative is to jump on the demos/leftovers early next quarter but you have to choose from what's available.
I meant it more as a joke... Considering I ordered the rare "Canadian Model 3 Performance", I don't expect the my car's delivery date will be at all influenced by my order date (late March). As long as it gets here by the end of June or early July I'm OK with it. I have the month of July off, and I want my new car for that :)
 
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We've ordered a custom trimmed 2019 Jeep Compass and we were told at the dealership it'd be 4 - 6 weeks. The next time we heard from our Jeep sales associate was the day the car was ready to pick up. We're lucky we get an updated estimated delivery page that we can check with Tesla. I'd argue, that Tesla having that estimated delivery page, drives people nuts more than if they didn't have an estimation. If we were all just given a time frame in weeks like the order page has, we'd have a lot less upset people about their dates moving around. Oh and comparing a Subway sandwich to a complex network of logistics consisting of freight train networks shipping cars to hub cities then moving to a complex network of car transport semis to regionally deliver to the delivery location is hilarious.

I was being a SmartAss about the Subway 🤣