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I also expect SR Premium first. Doing that only requires the Gigfactory to produce the new batteries, and does not require changing the car line to also do non-PUP. They also can still go AWD SR too, just by having the battery change, so IMO, non-PUP will be last.I'm sure they will eventually offer the car without the premium interior or long range battery. I expect they'll offer it with only one of those first, though - more profit margin, less manufacturing complexity.
My guess is they'll do SR Premium first, but they might do LR nonPremium instead. They might offer the cars without both as soon as they start offering the other version, or there might be a period where they are offering LR nonPremium and SR Premium, but not SR nonPremium.
I also expect SR Premium first. Doing that only requires the Gigfactory to produce the new batteries, and does not require changing the car line to also do non-PUP. They also can still go AWD SR too, just by having the battery change, so IMO, non-PUP will be last.
Which would hurt more? Going out of business because you introduce disruptive changes to your manufacturing line before you have the volume to sustain it, for a lower-margin car, or losing some potential customers because it takes longer than they expected for you to get out the exact car they want?But won’t that hurt Tesla to an extent ? It further holds back their presence in the market they are seeking to corner. Holding back the most affordable model seems it would also dampen the importance of the vehicle in the media the longer they hold out.
Which would hurt more? Going out of business because you introduce disruptive changes to your manufacturing line before you have the volume to sustain it, for a lower-margin car, or losing some potential customers because it takes longer than they expected for you to get out the exact car they want?
But won’t that hurt Tesla to an extent ? It further holds back their presence in the market they are seeking to corner. Holding back the most affordable model seems it would also dampen the importance of the vehicle in the media the longer they hold out.
Not really.
They can only build so many in a week.
As long as they have enough buyers for 100% of production on a higher priced model it doesn't "hurt" them to not make the lower priced one- they're still selling every car they make as fast as they can make it- and thus putting as many teslas on the road as they possibly can each week.
Elon already said that if they built the $35k car first, they would have gone out of business. It has less profit margins. Right now, it's all about keeping their margins up as high as they can. The battery change for SR would only require the Gigafactory to take on the new load, and wouldn't need to change the assembly lines for the car, because there would only be RWD, AWD, and P. Assuming P would also have an SR battery, then you would have 6 configurations to build. (I assume the tires are not really big deals in the assembly line - seems like those should be easy enough to keep a bunch on hand for whatever you're trying to build.)If they can go out of business for once again modifying the line, then they would be in trouble and the public would be aware of that already.
Think it this way, in the beginning of 2016 Tesla said that there battery price on pack level was less then $190/kWh, lets say it’s $150/kWh now. If the short range Model 3 have a battery with 25 kWh less capacity it means that it cost about $3750 less to built but Tesla will get $9000 less. If the profit margin right know is less then $5250 on a long a range Model 3 it would mean that Tesla will sell a short range at a loss.If they can go out of business for once again modifying the line, then they would be in trouble and the public would be aware of that already.
With these levels of scaling, I agree just keeping Premium and foregoing the theoretically cheaper interior option might be best. Nice way to give customers the idea of extra value for money.I think retooling for a non-premium version is more complicated than for SR/AWD/Performance versions. Different roof, seats, headliner, speakers etc. And they get less money for that version. So... that will be the very last version they build. If ever. I would not be surprised if in 6 months time we'll get a 40k version and then over a couple of years time, with batteries getting cheaper and production most cost effective, Tesla might simply drop the price of SR+Premium to 35k to meet their promise and never produce non-premium interior.
And also I'm pretty sure most people would actually go with premium interior even for SR.
Only looking to add enhanced autopilot , when the time comes.
Which would hurt more? Going out of business because you introduce disruptive changes to your manufacturing line before you have the volume to sustain it, for a lower-margin car, or losing some potential customers because it takes longer than they expected for you to get out the exact car they want?