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Starlink IPO
- Thread starter KarenRei
- Start date
that's going to get interesting. time to start a new thread as everyone and their brother will want to get in on that IPO.
That'll be an oversubscribed IPO
we should def start a thread for starlink ipo and any effects on TSLA
The Martian
Member
I'm wondering if Elon will give Tesla shareholders the priority to subscribe to the IPO. Or is it even legally possible?
That is one IPO I would stay away from. Overhead costs to maintain that constellation will be huge. There is also a lot of competition already planned, which will keep costs down. I think it makes sense to have SpaceX owning/running it given their incredibly cheap launch costs, but a stand alone company might not always get such a good deal.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
A good topic for another thread - I have a different view of things. With SpaceX getting their constellation up so much faster than others, I'm having a hard time seeing how a competitor has a chance of getting their constellation going. Customers can buy their satellite internet now from Starlink, or wait for later when a competitor is available?
And competitors don't have their own cheap launch - they're going to have to pay retail for a LOT of launches. And they're probably going to be paying SpaceX for those launch services.
This looks like the auto industry all over again - huge startup costs make for a big competitive advantage for first mover(s), and make it nearly impossible for later competitors to get into the game and compete effectively. I think there's a decent chance that all of the competitors will be locked out of the market by the end of this year by Starlink.
Since there will be a lot of interest in this, i figured i would start a new thread. Let's debate the size of the addressable market. I believe I have read that Starlink could expand up to 42k satellites. What are launch costs with the new Starship design?
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Hmm, so that force arms length pricing with SpaceX so basically competitors would need the same pricing. But, do competitors have cheap satellites?
Starlink webpage: Starlink
Starlink is targeting service in the Northern U.S. and Canada in 2020, rapidly expanding to near global coverage of the populated world by 2021.
SpaceX about Starlink: STARLINK MISSION
Press Kit with Timeline: https://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/starlink_mission_press_kit.pdf
Starlink is targeting service in the Northern U.S. and Canada in 2020, rapidly expanding to near global coverage of the populated world by 2021.
SpaceX about Starlink: STARLINK MISSION
Press Kit with Timeline: https://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/starlink_mission_press_kit.pdf
It’s currently roughly $1miilion to launch a Starlink satellite on the Falcon 9 (~$60million / 60 satellites) at market prices. I’m sure it costs SpaceX less than this, but market prices should be used for any spun-off company. Just to launch a 15000 a bird constellation would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 Billion. I believe each satellite has a lifespan around 5 years at the very low orbit they have specified meaning they would have to spend $3 Billion a year in launch costs just to maintain the 15000. Add more satellites and the cost goes up. This doesn’t include any other costs such as: operation, design, sales, satellite hardware, etc.
I’m not sure how big the market really is to fund these types of expenses. I’ve seen things tossed around like $50 Billion potential revenue, but no info how these figures were calculated.
I would love to see this thing pan out, but it is a very risky endeavor even with the head start. The satellite industry is littered with failed companies that couldn’t achieve the projected revenue. And let’s not forget Jeff Bezos is hell bent on launching his own system using Blue Origin. This adds additional risk in the form of probable competitors forcing revenue down.
I’m not sure how big the market really is to fund these types of expenses. I’ve seen things tossed around like $50 Billion potential revenue, but no info how these figures were calculated.
I would love to see this thing pan out, but it is a very risky endeavor even with the head start. The satellite industry is littered with failed companies that couldn’t achieve the projected revenue. And let’s not forget Jeff Bezos is hell bent on launching his own system using Blue Origin. This adds additional risk in the form of probable competitors forcing revenue down.
Starlink satellites last for about 5 years, so replacement rate is 8000/year. Starship can launch about 300 at a time for about $2M so launch costs are about $60M. The satellites are going to cost much more than that, maybe $2-5 B/year but it is hard to tell this far out as the next few generations of satellite will be more capable and therefore cost more (or perhaps less due to better technology). Costs also include ground terminals, both customer (maybe $500) and gateways. Customer acquisition and retention costs could be high.
Revenue and earnings are hard to guess, maybe $300/customer/year and 20 million customers (but it might be 200 million customers). But it seems to me that the majority of the revenue is likely to come from commercial customers. There is also the question of whether Starlink can sell added services on top of basic data connectivity.
One interesting possibility is combining 5G base station functionality with a Starlink terminal for backhaul.
Taking all these factors into account it is impossible to give a valuation at present, it could be anywhere from zero to several trillion.
I believe they plan on launching something like 400 satellites via Starship with everything reusable. What are launch and replacement satellite costs if we start scaling at that level?
How would Blue Origin or OneWeb even compete at that scale?
DM me in case you get invited to the IPO, I will help you stay away from it
- just as a favor to a fellow TMC poster.
Arms-length pricing is an interesting question. As things stand today, I'd be all over this.
'So our business plan is that we take rockets--and hear me out here--we take rockets that our customers have paid for, and then we launch our own satellites for the cost of fuel and refurbishment.' If that's the plan, take my dollars, please.
'So our business plan is that we take rockets--and hear me out here--we take rockets that our customers have paid for, and then we launch our own satellites for the cost of fuel and refurbishment.' If that's the plan, take my dollars, please.
They won't/ can't and by the the time they finally have a working orbital class rocket SpaceX will be on rev 5. Faster cheaper better.
here's a recent article about how SpaceX is trying innovate and get costs down on Starship by building it using off the shelf manufacturing. These reduced production costs for Starship may translate to reduced Starlink launch costs.
SpaceX wants to speed up Starship build with off-shelf water tower manufacturing tech
SpaceX wants to speed up Starship build with off-shelf water tower manufacturing tech
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You think the NSA hasn't already cut them a check for $15B and the Pentagon another $100B?
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