The ground stations are a bit of a mystery. It doesn't appear that SpaceX is really staffing up much for those and they have only filed for a large handful of them. So customer user terminals as ground stations sounds like a solution that they might use.
Starlink IPO
- Thread starter KarenRei
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The ground stations are a bit of a mystery. It doesn't appear that SpaceX is really staffing up much for those and they have only filed for a large handful of them. So customer user terminals as ground stations sounds like a solution that they might use.
Not entirely.
Great for RVs even occasional camping trips. How great is that, taking your home internet service with you!
They are going to have 12k satellites in orbit why would they bounce a signal off a ground station back up to another satellite?
If they don’t have satellite to satellite laser links, then it would be a way to hop packets to distant locations. But this is all speculation. More likely, they will figure out the laser links and do it that way.
To be clear, satellite to satellite communications in general are not common, due in no small part to the fact that there are few constellations to begin with that could leverage ISLs, and even fewer where the trade says ISLs make the beancounters happier then going with multiple gateways (basically, Starlink vs OneWeb).
Commercially, ISLs are pretty much just used on Iridium.
Ka has been the backbone of GEO internet satellites for decades.
I'm used to constellations so wasn't thinking it isn't common for commercial applications. Yes the Ka for K above and Ku for K under are used the center of the K band isn't as usable for earth to satellite comms. Of course my info is a bit dated.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
SpaceX President says that they're in "No rush" to implement an Starling IPO.
SpaceX is in no rush for a Starlink IPO and that should terrify competitors
Article says, "several years" before it occurs. Most unfortunate.
SpaceX is in no rush for a Starlink IPO and that should terrify competitors
Article says, "several years" before it occurs. Most unfortunate.
ggies07
Supporting Member
Damn son, I have some extra lettuce right now, but who knows in "several years". haha.
e-FTW
New electron smell
Nocturnal
Supporting Member
Has anyone done the math on addressable market and possible market cap? I wonder if this is an IPO that you get in and out of in a year while making big returns and then buy back 5 years later once it stabilizes.
Do we know what the four main arrays on the satellite actually do? Typically two way satellites will have separate user and feeder/gateway antennas for each direction, so I suppose that math checks out...but I’ve never seen the user and feeder antennas take a similar form factor. Given that the extra two dishes were not on the first launch I still tend to believe those are for RF ISLs, but on the flip side the fact that Elon hasn't said anything about them (to my knowledge anyway) and is now talking about not using ISLs [in the near term] could suggest those are gateway antennas...
Just a heads up, I worked for the Starlink project and can help clarify any confusion.
That being said, I will not say anything that could harm spacex, including inside information, trade secrets, basically anything and everything that has not be revealed to the public is off limits.
Some FAQs:
When can Starlink make revenue?
Starlink can possibly generate revenue in 2020, but the service area and service quality will improve greatly during 2021-2022, and will have substantial room for improvement beyond. Based on previous statements, a few more launches are needed, then those satellites need to raise orbit, prior to being able to offer coverage.
How much will it cost? How fast will it be?
These questions can not be answered, and it’s all speculation from my position anyway, but inline with public statements, it will be relatively similar to common high speed internet speeds/prices. I guess the answer is: it isn’t expected to either be shockingly inexpensive nor substantially more expensive than what’s available.
Space lasers?
The following is my personal belief:
The ability to communicate satellite to satellite is extremely valuable and eventually I would think that Space lasers will be a thing.
Astronomers:
It was cool to see peers legit caring about this, and it was fun to see the team trying different things, such as the satellite with special coatings during launch 3.
Is the company Investible?
If spacex can deliver limited isp level service, it has essentially proven the business model - well, the physics of it.
But let’s be real - this is a company that has essentially gone from theory to flying the worlds largest constellation in ~2 years. They’re developing ground stations, user terminals, and the satellites themselves. This is an enormously crazy amount of technical challenge. If they prove they met these challenges then I would buy and hold.
Based on how the service will naturally improve over time (larger constellation, continuous improvement of the satellites themselves, more ground stations, eventually space lasers maybe, or other capability improvements), there is a lot of room for growth.
The addressable market is anything that can see the sky. It will be exciting to watch spacex flesh out the product this year. This is absurdly complex. The people working on it are truly amazing.
If anybody wants anything clarified, feel free to ask.
That being said, I will not say anything that could harm spacex, including inside information, trade secrets, basically anything and everything that has not be revealed to the public is off limits.
Some FAQs:
When can Starlink make revenue?
Starlink can possibly generate revenue in 2020, but the service area and service quality will improve greatly during 2021-2022, and will have substantial room for improvement beyond. Based on previous statements, a few more launches are needed, then those satellites need to raise orbit, prior to being able to offer coverage.
How much will it cost? How fast will it be?
These questions can not be answered, and it’s all speculation from my position anyway, but inline with public statements, it will be relatively similar to common high speed internet speeds/prices. I guess the answer is: it isn’t expected to either be shockingly inexpensive nor substantially more expensive than what’s available.
Space lasers?
The following is my personal belief:
The ability to communicate satellite to satellite is extremely valuable and eventually I would think that Space lasers will be a thing.
Astronomers:
It was cool to see peers legit caring about this, and it was fun to see the team trying different things, such as the satellite with special coatings during launch 3.
Is the company Investible?
If spacex can deliver limited isp level service, it has essentially proven the business model - well, the physics of it.
But let’s be real - this is a company that has essentially gone from theory to flying the worlds largest constellation in ~2 years. They’re developing ground stations, user terminals, and the satellites themselves. This is an enormously crazy amount of technical challenge. If they prove they met these challenges then I would buy and hold.
Based on how the service will naturally improve over time (larger constellation, continuous improvement of the satellites themselves, more ground stations, eventually space lasers maybe, or other capability improvements), there is a lot of room for growth.
The addressable market is anything that can see the sky. It will be exciting to watch spacex flesh out the product this year. This is absurdly complex. The people working on it are truly amazing.
If anybody wants anything clarified, feel free to ask.
I think initially it seems like this will be very focused on the rural market or underserved so the cost won't be cheap. Could prices drop over time as they scale satellite production, reduce launch costs, and scale their user base?
I think a few physics or satcom classes might be in order. Starlink will be great for a certain, underserved segment of the population, but it will never have the same capacity or performance as modern (well run) landline or cellular infrastructures where they are available. Musk is not disputing this. He is far too smart on this subject.
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LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I don't know, perhaps areas that are high population concentration would be interested in investing and not just rural areas. An apartment complex offering the high speed connectivity as part of their rental package, for instance.
Just for context: Telecoms can currently run ~192 channels at up to 400Gbps on EACH fiber in a cable. Cables contain many fibers. Good luck trying to get anywhere near that throughput using the RF spectrum. Let’s not kid ourselves that Starlink is going to supplant existing backhaul. That said, Starlink will be a boon for currently underserved areas.
It truly has the potential to greatly improve the quality of life for hundreds of millions.
It’s not really insider information to understand that the costs of things like the dish should be higher than a comparable dish for a traditional geosynchronous service. I have no insight into Dish/DirectTV dish costs, this is just fundamental level. Those DirectTV dishes are like one injection mold away from being 90% complete whereas any system like Starlink will have more stuff going on at the receiver. That extra stuff is going to cost more. This article summarized the public info on the matter well.
SpaceX's Elon Musk says Starlink user antennas will be like "UFOs on a stick"
From an investors perspective, SpaceX's ability, over time, to drive down the cost of things like the dish will be important for investors, as cost saving dollars can potentially be multiplied by millions, tens of millions of customers. Fortunately, Elon has the best engineers in the world. No idea how any of this will impact pricing.
