Starting to feel like Cybertruck is going the way of the Roadster: Vaporware

[Suns_PSD]

Supercharging rates are in the neighborhood of 39 cents/ kw correct?

So about 2.8 miles/ .39 cents?

Am I doing that math correct?

 

[Jigglypuff]

I think you might be driving up hill both ways. I just took my wife's MY Performance on a 500 mile trip (250 miles each way) doing 75 with the a/c at 69-70 (air temp between 87-95). I made it there and back and only needed to charge once, for 50 minutes. But that was at dinner, so I didn't actually lose any time.

Just going a lot faster than you, and varying my speed a lot more too. Efficiency drops dramatically with speed.

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion. However, my charging stops tend to be between 20 and 30 minutes long unless I'm grabbing a bite to eat. Usually, by the time I've used the facilities and possibly grabbed a snack, I'm not waiting long. When I eat, I try to find place near a Supercharger and I'll charge for as long as I feel like eating. It just means I'll be able to go farther than the splash and dash would have gotten me.
By the time I'm down to 50 KW, I'm unplugging my car to head down the road. How fast do automakers claim cars will charge? I regular charge at over 1000 mph when the car is low on charge. The attached was last weekend:

It tapers of fairly fast but it certainly gets a lot of range in that short time. This will only get better and happen for longer as batteries improve and they get cheaper so you can afford bigger ones.
One can really get places if you push it - just like with an ICE, or you can take it easy and enjoy the scenery. I once drove across the country in 3 days. I left the Tidewater area in eastern Virginia early in the morning, then arrived in time for a 5:00 pm meeting near LAX in Los Angeles 3 days later. That was before Arkansas was covered in Superchargers so I even had to detour almost to Dallas. There were no V3 Superchargers then either.
Good luck doing that with Hydrogen.

Average charging speed is what matters, not peak. Gas averages 6000 MPH filling on a 25MPG car. Better on a more efficient car. Even on a fast supercharger, Tesla doesn't come close.

I've never watched a video in my car in over 120K miles (except for one SpaceX launch, where I made a stop at a convenient CHAdeMO and topped off while watching because I was there when it happened. I figured I might as well make the stop useful). I've only sat in it while charging once or twice, when it was extremely cold outside - but had other things I needed to do anyway.
How often have you bought gas?

Not often since we have to EVs and a third on the way. I bought gas last night on the way home. Before that, maybe a month or two. We'll have a Jeep on vacation, so that'll be pretty often if we do drive which we won't do too much of.

If you charged at a local Supercharger, you're not going to get good rates.

That's for darned sure! And it was sloooow.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

IMO, the truck market is the real turning point to break into the ingrained ICE population and rural areas.

FWIW, southeastern USA traffic is 2/3rds SUVs and pickups.

Remaining 1/3 is sedans, of which Tesla is making a strong showing.

Considering how many S/3/X/Ys are on the road here, CT should have remarkably fast adoption - and with the outrageous styling, even a few will make a serious impact on product visibility.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Tesla Cybertruck design is 'finally locked' and gets an updated timeline

Elon Musk says that the final Tesla Cybertruck design is "finally locked" and he updated the timeline to production for mid-2023

electrek.co

Now "mid 2023."

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Well, there was that pesky little issue involving a worldwide pandemic, and supply chain chip shortage.

Roadster was a luxury model, expendable in the large scheme.
Cybertruck is critical, considering majority of vehicles on the road are SUVs and pickups (with most of those amounting to open-back SUVs).

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla Cybertruck design is 'finally locked' and gets an updated timeline

Elon Musk says that the final Tesla Cybertruck design is "finally locked" and he updated the timeline to production for mid-2023

electrek.co

Now "mid 2023."

Here is the link to the referenced interview in the Electrek article.

During a new interview with the Tesla Owners Club of Silicon Valley, Musk confirmed that the Cybertruck design is now “locked”:
We need to get on that [getting the Cybertruck to production]. At least, the design is finally locked. We got too carried away [with design updates].
Musk has previously disclosed that Tesla added rear-wheel-steering to the Cybertruck and made several slight design changes. However, the CEO added that regardless of the design revisions, Tesla wouldn’t have been able to bring the electric pickup truck to volume production either way because of the chip shortage. During the interview, Musk updated the production timeline for the Cybertruck to now “mid-2023.”

 

[DarkandStormy]

Well, there was that pesky little issue involving a worldwide pandemic, and supply chain chip shortage.

None of those change the fact that Tesla introduced a new product and said the plan was for that product to start being available within roughly a year, despite the fact that the company had not yet secured factory space for a production line nor the manufacturing equipment to produce it.

The pandemic and supply chain stuff is convenient cover - the CT was never going to get delivered on the initial timeline.

 

[Suns_PSD]

Musk has always over promised and under delivered.

It's his hallmark actually.

Still, it's resulted in a very successful car company.

 

[Earl]

Musk has always over promised and under delivered.

Only as far as timing is concerned. However, keep in mind that the Model 3 was released earlier than the original schedule.
The products generally have exceeded initial promises (Supercharging, autopilot, battery swap, faster charge rates, etc), once they finally got released and all of the bugs worked out.
As an engineer working in R&D, I know that it is impossible to predict when breakthroughs will happen unless you put a lot of padding into the schedule. MBAs hate it but it is reality.
History actually doesn't even remember whether the Model T , the cotton gin, the steel plow, sewing machine, the Apple 2 computer, etc were delivered according to some schedule. They just remember the disruption these technology products caused after they were released.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Only as far as timing is concerned. However, keep in mind that the Model 3 was released earlier than the original schedule.
The products generally have exceeded initial promises (Supercharging, autopilot, battery swap, faster charge rates, etc), once they finally got released and all of the bugs worked out.
As an engineer working in R&D, I know that it is impossible to predict when breakthroughs will happen unless you put a lot of padding into the schedule. MBAs hate it but it is reality.
History actually doesn't even remember whether the Model T , the cotton gin, the steel plow, sewing machine, the Apple 2 computer, etc were delivered according to some schedule. They just remember the disruption these technology products caused after they were released.

I'm sorry...the Supercharging that was supposed to always be free and the battery swap that was supposed to be faster than filling up with gas? Those have exceeded the initial promises?

 

[FlatSix911]

I'm sorry...the Supercharging that was supposed to always be free and the battery swap that was supposed to be faster than filling up with gas?
Those have exceeded the initial promises?

Supercharging is still free for me as an early adopter of the Model S/X. Battery swaps not so much.

 

[KenC]

Just going a lot faster than you, and varying my speed a lot more too. Efficiency drops dramatically with speed.

Average charging speed is what matters, not peak. Gas averages 6000 MPH filling on a 25MPG car. Better on a more efficient car. Even on a fast supercharger, Tesla doesn't come close.

Not often since we have to EVs and a third on the way. I bought gas last night on the way home. Before that, maybe a month or two. We'll have a Jeep on vacation, so that'll be pretty often if we do drive which we won't do too much of.

That's for darned sure! And it was sloooow.

Maybe the difference in experience is because you're in Cali, where Superchargers are inundated.

Last Summer, I drove from Maine to Denver and back, 4400 miles, and the optimal strategy for shortest trip times in a Tesla is to drive as fast as you are comfortable with, and charge at the lowest SOCs you are comfortable with. For me, that meant driving 15% above posted speed limits, which meant about 90mph in Nebraska, and charging when 10-15% SOC. Doing that, my average recharge was 17mins, logged by ABRP, with about 1h30m of driving. Obviously, the Model Y numbers will be slightly worse. Overall, when including all my stops for toilet breaks, coffee, food, I averaged just over 60mph, which is the same as when I drive my car. YMMV, but it works for me, no compromises. It's the reason why, as much as I like the Rivian, I can't get over the time sacrifice using the CCS network. Maybe in 5yrs, it'll be up to snuff. Just around the time when my Cybertruck will be ready!

 

[Earl]

I'm sorry...the Supercharging that was supposed to always be free and the battery swap that was supposed to be faster than filling up with gas? Those have exceeded the initial promises?

I'm not sure what you mean?
Supercharging (which was not mentioned at all upon purchase, hence, the capability was an over-delivery)was and has always been free for everyone for whom it was promised prior to purchasing their car. Those of us who purchased later cars were told we would have to pay for Supercharging before we bought the car. This was 100% above board. If you don't like the policy change, blame those who chose to use Supercharging for their daily use rather than just for road trips which was the original intent for which the original free supercharging for life was sustainable.
Battery swap (which was also unknown and un-announced at all upon purchase for early buyers, hence, the capability was also an over-delivery) was faster that filling up with gas. At $24/two swaps (to get back your original battery), initial setup time, and having to return to the same location on the way home, it just wasn't enough faster than free supercharging to be worth the effort for very many people.

 

[T3SLAROD]

I'm not sure what you mean?
Supercharging (which was not mentioned at all upon purchase, hence, the capability was an over-delivery)was and has always been free for everyone for whom it was promised prior to purchasing their car. Those of us who purchased later cars were told we would have to pay for Supercharging before we bought the car. This was 100% above board. If you don't like the policy change, blame those who chose to use Supercharging for their daily use rather than just for road trips which was the original intent for which the original free supercharging for life was sustainable.
Battery swap (which was also unknown and un-announced at all upon purchase for early buyers, hence, the capability was also an over-delivery) was faster that filling up with gas. At $24/two swaps (to get back your original battery), initial setup time, and having to return to the same location on the way home, it just wasn't enough faster than free supercharging to be worth the effort for very many people.

You see ladies and gentleman, Musk can never do wrong or be wrong as long as it was attempted. Like a car for the “masses” the $35k Model 3, he overdelivered. It’s your fault you didn’t buy it. All Hail Musk ….

 

[Earl]

You see ladies and gentleman, Musk can never do wrong or be wrong as long as it was attempted. Like a car for the “masses” the $35k Model 3, he overdelivered. It’s your fault you didn’t buy it. All Hail Musk ….

I'm not a Musk worshipper but I'll give him credit where it is due. So far, for the most part, he's built what I wanted, and then some, for that past 16 years. I will (and have) called him out to explain some of his actions (like firing Eberhart and Tarpenning) when it is appropriate. One of his positive traits is that he does understand first principles so he understands what is possible and he has a lot of smart, dedicated people working for him whom he listens to (actually, he grills them unmercifully). He is also doggedly stubborn to pursue what he thinks is right.
Are you implying there wasn't a $35K Model 3?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm sorry...the Supercharging that was supposed to always be free and the battery swap that was supposed to be faster than filling up with gas? Those have exceeded the initial promises?

They never said Supercharging would always be free. I remember Straubel saying they'd look at it later.

Any chance of swapping in a Tesla was killed by tank mode.

 

[Jigglypuff]

Battery swap (which was also unknown and un-announced at all upon purchase for early buyers, hence, the capability was also an over-delivery) was faster that filling up with gas. At $24/two swaps (to get back your original battery), initial setup time, and having to return to the same location on the way home, it just wasn't enough faster than free supercharging to be worth the effort for very many people.

My understanding is that battery swapping was basically a fake to get some free government cash. They did the minimum, pocketed the money, then shut it down.

 

[Earl]

My understanding is that battery swapping was basically a fake to get some free government cash. They did the minimum, pocketed the money, then shut it down.

I know they guy who ran the battery swap facility at Harris Ranch. I will assure you that he and Tesla were 100% serious about making it work to learn its economic viability and market popularity. He was one of the original Roadster technicians at the LA Tesla Store. He was a brilliant mechanic, able to work through all of the uncertainties of the Roadsters. He opened the Costa Mesa Service Center and ran it before taking on the task of making the battery swap station work. He bought an RV and moved into an RV park down the road from Harris Ranch. It was pretty much his life. He borrowed engineers and technicians from Palo Alto and Fremont to help in order for them all to learn from the test setup. They were definitely ready to make a go of it if it showed itself to be viable.
They put the facility at Harris Ranch, a very strategic location in the middle of the route with the most Tesla traffic in the world going between Sacramento and the SF Bay area and Los Angeles. A single battery swap was sufficient for most of the traffic on that route and most folks passed by Harris Ranch on their return trip. If any place had a need and a market, that was it.
Keeping spare batteries ready was a challenge since there were several different battery packs in the early Model Ss. Drivers had to notify the battery swap team in advance to be sure they would have a pack for your car when you came through. The first visit took a little while since there were a few minor modifications to the battery needed. Subsequent stops could then swap out the battery in a few minutes. It truly was a technical challenge but they kept data on vehicle travel and who used the battery swap vs who used the Supercharger.
If it was fake, they could have put on a show in Fremont and it would have been a lot easier and cheaper but they chose an inconvenient and uncomfortable, yet highly strategic location instead, where they could gather useful data.
It's sad that people are so quick to listen to the wrong stories and spout so much when they know so little. Sadder, yet, is that so many others, many of whom are wise and good people, believe it and repeat it.
The CA government scam that favored hydrogen over BEVs to support easy retirement jobs for former CARB bureaucrats was where the minimum was (and is still being) done and the cash pocketed.
Meanwhile, despite all the lies coined by those trying to hold them back, Tesla keeps replacing literally millions of fume spewing ICE vehicles that require wars to procure their fuel. Tesla is forcing the whole auto industry to follow, not by law decree or force, but by doing the right thing.
Sorry for the rant.

 

[Jigglypuff]

I know they guy who ran the battery swap facility at Harris Ranch. I will assure you that he and Tesla were 100% serious about making it work to learn its economic viability and market popularity. He was one of the original Roadster technicians at the LA Tesla Store. He was a brilliant mechanic, able to work through all of the uncertainties of the Roadsters. He opened the Costa Mesa Service Center and ran it before taking on the task of making the battery swap station work. He bought an RV and moved into an RV park down the road from Harris Ranch. It was pretty much his life. He borrowed engineers and technicians from Palo Alto and Fremont to help in order for them all to learn from the test setup. They were definitely ready to make a go of it if it showed itself to be viable.
They put the facility at Harris Ranch, a very strategic location in the middle of the route with the most Tesla traffic in the world going between Sacramento and the SF Bay area and Los Angeles. A single battery swap was sufficient for most of the traffic on that route and most folks passed by Harris Ranch on their return trip. If any place had a need and a market, that was it.
Keeping spare batteries ready was a challenge since there were several different battery packs in the early Model Ss. Drivers had to notify the battery swap team in advance to be sure they would have a pack for your car when you came through. The first visit took a little while since there were a few minor modifications to the battery needed. Subsequent stops could then swap out the battery in a few minutes. It truly was a technical challenge but they kept data on vehicle travel and who used the battery swap vs who used the Supercharger.
If it was fake, they could have put on a show in Fremont and it would have been a lot easier and cheaper but they chose an inconvenient and uncomfortable, yet highly strategic location instead, where they could gather useful data.
It's sad that people are so quick to listen to the wrong stories and spout so much when they know so little. Sadder, yet, is that so many others, many of whom are wise and good people, believe it and repeat it.
The CA government scam that favored hydrogen over BEVs to support easy retirement jobs for former CARB bureaucrats was where the minimum was (and is still being) done and the cash pocketed.
Meanwhile, despite all the lies coined by those trying to hold them back, Tesla keeps replacing literally millions of fume spewing ICE vehicles that require wars to procure their fuel. Tesla is forcing the whole auto industry to follow, not by law decree or force, but by doing the right thing.
Sorry for the rant.

Extra ZEV credits for a program that didn't really work out meant extra money for Tesla. How much? I don't think we'll ever know.

As for your buddy, I'm sure he was quite serious in the program and is a wonderfully talented mechanic. But Tesla brass doesn't necessarily tell the people under them why things are done. My cousin on the retail management side was blindsided by some real BS. Remember when Musk announced the stores were mostly closing? Sounds like similar BS happened to your buddy.

 

[T3SLAROD]

Again, Musk tried, but someone else, in this case California favored another platform and Musk had his hands tied behind his back. California Lied, but Musk tried.

BTW, Musk is trying right now to build the CT but he is now saying Austin is a money pit. I wouldn’t be surprised if “outside forces” make Musk decide the CT can’t be built.