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Starting to feel like Cybertruck is going the way of the Roadster: Vaporware
- Thread starter Hank42
- Start date
Assembly line is currently being put in place. The machines that build the machines are on their way to the factory. That is all I can say.
The original bargain priced single motor CT is the vaporware. There will be people getting CT’s in 2023/2024… but it won’t be the bargain hunters.
Rumors and speculation. Besides to my point, Has tesla sent that information out to reservation holders? No.
I wouldn't say "nothing." Elon and Franz have said they've tweaked the design, several times. Perhaps no "official communication" - it sounds like you're looking for an email from Tesla to reservation holders about updates related to timing, pricing, etc. That is true.
We've heard sizing was reduced by 3%, then Elon said they couldn't go smaller (honestly, I've lost track of where that ended up because there were so many interviews/stories on it). Unless regulations will change by next year, we know it'll need a windshield wiper and side mirrors. Elon talked about no door handles, but it's unclear if they've tested that to the point they are confident of putting it in from Truck #1 on.
Anyway, this is largely what Tesla/Elon are doing now. See: Semi, Roadster. I think Elon got a bit ahead of himself on unlocking gains via the 4680 batteries and so Tesla has to slow walk the rollout of those products until they are confident in scaling up 4680s. Just my opinion on that, though. I could be off.
Fleetwood75
Member
My bet is that one single Cybertruck rolls off the production line on Dec 31, 2023. Kind of like what GMC did with the Hummer in 2021. Then they spend 2024 “ramping”, getting up to 1,000/mo by the end of 2024
By end of 2025 the first 10% of reservations will be fulfilled
By end of 2025 the first 10% of reservations will be fulfilled
Maybe, maybe not. Believe what you want. Time will tell. The Giga casting machine is already built, that's common knowledge.
Not maybe or maybe not. You either violated an NDA or you don’t know.
Either way, the post is not credible because it says something about your decision making abilities for making it.
Seems like you are trying to rile up someone enough to divulge information that would in fact violate an NDA. Giga Texas was specifically built for Y and Cybertruck and if you think Tesla isn't already building the infrastructure for the truck then my statement will remain. time will tell.
Oh, you also forgot the interview where he stated "I would not buy one of the first Cybertrks off the line" and for people to "Wait" until production is in full swing. Kind of an odd statement. I mean, on one hand, history has proven itself with things like fluffergate on the M3. I can only imaging the risk of stupid little things to go wrong on the truck - EVERYTHING about it is "new":
1. Body material
2. Body construction (Stamping)
3. 4680 batteries
4. "balsitc" glass
5. Rolling tonneau cover
6. Camera rear-view
7. "removable" side view mirrors
8. Air compressor and 240VAC utility outlets
9. Three motors! (Plaid has this no??)
10. No door handles?
You made a declaratory statement about something which you have no insider knowledge of. And now you’re walking it back.
Made my statement, you don't believe me, we can all move on now. I can't say anything more on the subject.
Right. Super secret, hush-hush.
Spoiler: you didn’t say anything rooted in reality to begin with.
You know of course that people violate NDA’s all the time when there is no reasonable expectation they will be caught.
empiredown
Member
Actually what he said was to buy the first ones, which are almost all going to be handmade due to QC needed or buy later, once production gets more fully ramped and they have worked out a lot of the kinks...
SS
QC with Tesla ? They don’t have that department anymore. Cost savings.
CjRichMar
Member
Do you know what's included in an NDA for all the levels of people who might have this information? Depending on the scope, maybe not.
Hey all,
Truck guy and engineer here.
I didn't pre-order the Cybertruck. I go back and forth over whether I regret it or not, given how low of a price it is to pre-order and you can just kind of forget you did it.
That's also why I ordered my Model Y in March this year. Looking back at it $250 is a small price to pay for something that will be worth $20k-$25k more than you pay for it once it finally delivers.
Here's my tech-guy/truck-guy theory that's not backed by any facts at all:
The Cybertruck isn't vaporware, but to believe it's going to roll off production lines even half as efficiently as the Model Y would be clown levels of optimism.
Trucks aren't cars. I know that sounds patronizing and simple to say, but you really need to understand that trucks are not cars.
The aerodynamics are different, the weight is different, the handling is different, the braking power required is different, the load tolerances is different, the suspension is different.
ICE trucks feel like boats compared to cars because they need a much higher level of dampening to accommodate for a possible payload and tongue weight when towing.
Oh and towing? Has a significant impact on range. But that's not it, it also has a significant impact on range when not towing. Why? Because of heavier tires, heavier frame, less aerodynamics, more energy to move a smaller distance.
Trucks carry an extra 2000-4000 pounds of metal just for the frame and reinforcements for towing/hauling.
So my theory is the Cybertruck in its current form isn't hitting mileage targets, efficiency targets... If they need the 9,000 ton giga press to cast the frame and the prototypes are using a different frame not built with the giga press, then it's highly likely they haven't been able to test a prototype that uses production tooling and that's most likely what they're doing now. And it's most likely not just the range that's not hitting their targets, they probably aren't seeing the towing or hauling limits they want.
While the design is finalized, the engineering needs tweaks and they probably need to make adjustments to the power output and battery size/density to hit the efficiency and range targets.
Ford played it safe by using a tested, albeit old platform with the Lightning. It's boring, but it works. It's also inefficient compared to your average Tesla.
Honestly, the Cybertruck will be released... Eventually. But if you think you're still getting a $39k single-motor version, I don't know what to tell you. Even a base 240 mile boring shmoring F150 Lightning fitted with hundreds of pounds of 99 cent store plastic trim and body pieces got a price jump to $48k. I'd be shocked if anyone buying it before 2025 is able to get one for less than $70k. They're going to prioritize the higher spec orders when they initially deliver. There will be a handful, and I'm talking double digits, of single/dual motor units just to meet some MSRP compliance and almost every unit other than that will be F150 Lariat level in price at least. Tesla doesn't need to undercut the F150 Lightning's MSRP. Why would they? Anyone who wants an F150 Lightning will have to gamble with a dealer throwing on an ADM. And Tesla has superchargers and Autopilot. Almost every EV truck maker is shooting their prices to the moon, why would Tesla undercut when they command a premium over other EV brands? People pay MORE money to get a Tesla. You don't undercut when you're the leader in the market.
Truck guy and engineer here.
I didn't pre-order the Cybertruck. I go back and forth over whether I regret it or not, given how low of a price it is to pre-order and you can just kind of forget you did it.
That's also why I ordered my Model Y in March this year. Looking back at it $250 is a small price to pay for something that will be worth $20k-$25k more than you pay for it once it finally delivers.
Here's my tech-guy/truck-guy theory that's not backed by any facts at all:
The Cybertruck isn't vaporware, but to believe it's going to roll off production lines even half as efficiently as the Model Y would be clown levels of optimism.
Trucks aren't cars. I know that sounds patronizing and simple to say, but you really need to understand that trucks are not cars.
The aerodynamics are different, the weight is different, the handling is different, the braking power required is different, the load tolerances is different, the suspension is different.
ICE trucks feel like boats compared to cars because they need a much higher level of dampening to accommodate for a possible payload and tongue weight when towing.
Oh and towing? Has a significant impact on range. But that's not it, it also has a significant impact on range when not towing. Why? Because of heavier tires, heavier frame, less aerodynamics, more energy to move a smaller distance.
Trucks carry an extra 2000-4000 pounds of metal just for the frame and reinforcements for towing/hauling.
So my theory is the Cybertruck in its current form isn't hitting mileage targets, efficiency targets... If they need the 9,000 ton giga press to cast the frame and the prototypes are using a different frame not built with the giga press, then it's highly likely they haven't been able to test a prototype that uses production tooling and that's most likely what they're doing now. And it's most likely not just the range that's not hitting their targets, they probably aren't seeing the towing or hauling limits they want.
While the design is finalized, the engineering needs tweaks and they probably need to make adjustments to the power output and battery size/density to hit the efficiency and range targets.
Ford played it safe by using a tested, albeit old platform with the Lightning. It's boring, but it works. It's also inefficient compared to your average Tesla.
Honestly, the Cybertruck will be released... Eventually. But if you think you're still getting a $39k single-motor version, I don't know what to tell you. Even a base 240 mile boring shmoring F150 Lightning fitted with hundreds of pounds of 99 cent store plastic trim and body pieces got a price jump to $48k. I'd be shocked if anyone buying it before 2025 is able to get one for less than $70k. They're going to prioritize the higher spec orders when they initially deliver. There will be a handful, and I'm talking double digits, of single/dual motor units just to meet some MSRP compliance and almost every unit other than that will be F150 Lariat level in price at least. Tesla doesn't need to undercut the F150 Lightning's MSRP. Why would they? Anyone who wants an F150 Lightning will have to gamble with a dealer throwing on an ADM. And Tesla has superchargers and Autopilot. Almost every EV truck maker is shooting their prices to the moon, why would Tesla undercut when they command a premium over other EV brands? People pay MORE money to get a Tesla. You don't undercut when you're the leader in the market.
