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Steve Wozniak doubts fully self-driving vehicles are 'quite possible yet’
- Thread starter BobAbooey
- Start date
Someday in the future even Elon Musk may be the grouchy old man complaining about then current new technology when he has exhausted his own ideas, but hopefully that day is a long way off.
super20g
Member
Hopefully he is wrong. (My FSD order went through today, lol.)
I am sure we are at least a year off from the first FSD feature release, but hopefully not much more than that?
Full out FSD definitely does seem many moons out though.
I am sure we are at least a year off from the first FSD feature release, but hopefully not much more than that?
Full out FSD definitely does seem many moons out though.
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Hopefully Woz knows about the upcoming Tesla-designed hardware that'll increase computational power of self-driving AI. But I'm sure he does know that, however he's put out there to make these comments for specific reasons. Much like Bob Lutz, Woz can say anything without blowback to Apple.
It's no secret Apple is working on its own self-driving cars. They've even poached Tesla engineers. If Tesla was on the road to failure, I doubt companies like Apple would bother poaching their talent.
Anyways I hope one day we can all look back and look at how silly people are for fighting against self-driving cars. It's like we are ok with having over 100 deaths per day caused by car accidents, and over 17,000 car accidents each day. These are real statistics. And yet some people are out there trying so hard to stop the advancement of self-driving cars. smh
It's no secret Apple is working on its own self-driving cars. They've even poached Tesla engineers. If Tesla was on the road to failure, I doubt companies like Apple would bother poaching their talent.
Anyways I hope one day we can all look back and look at how silly people are for fighting against self-driving cars. It's like we are ok with having over 100 deaths per day caused by car accidents, and over 17,000 car accidents each day. These are real statistics. And yet some people are out there trying so hard to stop the advancement of self-driving cars. smh
I’d say not drinking all the cool-aid is not the same as trying to stop the advancement.
Tesla no longer selling the FSD vaporware should hint at the fact that The Woz may have a point.
I for one would love to have my car safely take me home from the proverbial pub. Better yet, I would start what would surely become a very succesful nonprofit/NGO that would buy Autopilot (with no off option) for a certain segment of the Bay Area drivers.
Sparky
Member
I'm confused. That clip was mostly Woz stating how great Tesla's Supercharger network is.
The interviewer couldn't quite keep him on point with "Tesla AP== bad" comments.
Woz not quite as "awesome" as he once was... nor am I.
The interviewer couldn't quite keep him on point with "Tesla AP== bad" comments.
Woz not quite as "awesome" as he once was... nor am I.
Apple is not working on FSD cars, they are working on FSD software. They stopped working on hardware about 3 years ago. What hardware platforms they are working on and who they maybe working with is a secret.
What does “not quite possible yet” mean anyway? That’s kind of a tautology - of course it’s not quite possible yet, because no one has done it! As soon as someone has done it, it will be possible.
If he means it isn’t quite possible with current hardware, Tesla has already tacitly admitted that - they need at least AP 3.0 HW. If he means even that won’t cut it - I’m sure he’s a very smart man who is disillusioned about not having FSD already, but I’d like to know how he knows so much more than anyone else about what can or can’t be done.
Johnny Mac
Member
I don't think there are going to be FSD "features". A car is either FSD or it isn't
We’re all Tesla fanboys but if my autopilot demo has demonstrated one thing it’s that FSD is quite a ways off (even with new AP3 computing power). AP is a neat and somewhat useful drivers aid but it’s extremely limited and clunky to the point where it’s obvious that FSD is not right around the corner. The simple situations where AP does function are not always executed very well so it doesn’t give me much hope for the millions of complex scenarios that FSD will need to contend with.
I’d love to be proven wrong but my guess is we’re at least 4-5 years (and some hardware/sensors in addition to cameras) away from legitimate FSD.
I’d love to be proven wrong but my guess is we’re at least 4-5 years (and some hardware/sensors in addition to cameras) away from legitimate FSD.
Xminus6
Member
I agree that it's not close yet. AP2.0 can't even drive down the relatively straight road from my kids' school with mediocre markings and cars parked all along the side. It's a trivially easy thing for a human driver to do and AP2.0 still seems to have no idea what's going on when I do it.
Where I differ is that I think the advancements can happen exponentially. So I won't proclaim that it's very far off as I have no idea how the NN learns and updates itself. Computer learning is changing the timelines for when we expect things to happen in many fields. So a field that is nearly all just about computer learning has an unpredictable schedule I'd say.
This has been discussed and debated in many threads and many would not agree. Is seems reasonable to assume that their are degrees of FSD features. For example full FSD driving on highways seems reasonably close.
The next feature phase might be NoA on two lane secondary roads with just stop signs and perhaps just straight thru and right turns. Left turns to follow. Nobody really knows. The point is one can make a case that FSD will evolve over time. How long it takes for "full" FSD however you define that is open to much debate and it will be a long journey.
Not right around the corner - absolutely - it’s still a ways off. Not quite possible - I don’t think so.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Except, of course, they are still selling it. You have to ask for it though.
The post 2 above yours mentions having ordered FSD today for example.
Rotarypower
Member
I really like and respect the Woz.....he is a brilliant guy and a hell of an engineer. But he seems to have something in for Tesla.....more than just broken promises about autopilot. I absolutely agree, now that I have my M3, that FSD ain’t happening next year, just like it didn’t happen this year, and it didn’t happen last year. Elon just needs to stop talking timelines because his brain isn’t in the same space time continuum as other worldly humans. Maybe this has soured Woz, as it has many other people. Woz did show some impartiality in praising the SC network and the fact that Elon and the team had the great foresight to create a means for long distance travel. I just wish Woz was fully on board the Tesla mission, but maybe it’s not such a bad thing that he is not?
CarlK
Active Member
Who cares what he thinks. He has not done anything in the last 30 years except to give TV interviews.
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