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Steven Chu in Automotive News (still 1 Million EVs, but maybe 2016 or so)

Discussion in 'News' started by Norbert, Jan 11, 2012.

  1. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    #1 Norbert, Jan 11, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2012
    Sorry, direct links don't seem to work. Find the two links, to two articles with the titles below, here:
    Steven Chu at autonews.com

    Innovate or be overtaken, U.S. energy chief tells automakers

    Electric cars will benefit from 'plummeting' battery prices, U.S. energy chief says

     
  2. Bearman

    Bearman Member

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    I like Chu, he is a very sharp guy.
     
  3. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Yep. Here two quotes from a Sept 2011 article, titled "U.S. to conduct more research on electric vehicles" (also via the above search link)


    These quotes apply to plans for the 2013 budget.
     
  4. slcasner

    slcasner Member

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    Three or four years ago, the cost of manufacturing a battery was $1,000-$1,200 a kilowatt hour, Chu said. It's now about $600 a kilowatt hour, he added.

    But the estimated replacement cost for the Roadster battery pack was $20K for a 53kWh pack. That's $377 per kWh.
     
  5. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Estimated for which time frame? I think that figure relates to plugin-hybrid batteries, which are probably more expensive per kWh because their power density (kW output per cell) needs to be higher.
     
  6. slcasner

    slcasner Member

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    That was current replacement cost.
     
  7. tomgray

    tomgray Banned

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    How about that - a guy in this administration smart enough to know what every 7 year old already knew - EVs will go mass market when battery prices
    decline. As for "dropping like a rock," well, that's pure BS. Tesla uses the cheapest li ion batteries, batteries produced in the billions, such that no more cost reduction thru
    manufacturing refinements are possible - they cost roughly $535 per kWhr. We need that cost (which has been dropping , according to Musk, at around 5 to 7 percent per year) to drop more than 80%, and also need a greater lifespan, which is the other cost parameter, which Chu avoided. Li Ions will not continue to drop in cost unless they are
    improved in design, something neither Chu nor anyone else can predict with certainty. At this moment and for the foreseeable future, EVs are a rich man's vehicle. So, quite
    naturally, our brainless Feds grossly subsidize their well-heeled owners with many thousands of dollars. What a country.
     
  8. Larry Chanin

    Larry Chanin Model S Perf Sig 1055

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    Hi Tom,

    Yeah, we should be subsidizing oil companies already making obscene profits. Oh wait, we do. What a country.

    Larry
     
  9. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    #9 dsm363, Jan 15, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2012
    Just curious. Why do the people who spam also seem to edit their posts somewhere else and paste them such that they leave lines with only a few words on them?
     
  10. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    #10 Norbert, Jan 15, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2012
    Prices are said to "plummet" only over a certain number of years. In some areas a stronger improvement is said to be ahead in the coming couple of years, but that's different for different areas.

    • I very much doubt the figure of $535. It it's probably more between $400/kWh and $450/kWh, according to some graphics, and the assumption made here in other threads that the first 40 kWh are less expensive then the upgraded capacities. However Chu was mostly talking about the plugin-hybrid sector, were prices are a bit higher due to the higher power density, yet often cycle life is quite high because of that.
    • Elon Musk actually said battery cost will be improving 7 to 9 percent (not 5 to 7) per year. See here: 12 tech leaders Tech News and Analysis
    • He also said that the Model S cost in $/kWh is half that of the Roadster. That happened within 5 years.
    • Li Ions will certainly be improved in design. That's what much of the research is about. Panasonic's upcoming batteries use even a different chemistry than the current ones.

    The fact that the future can't be predicted doesn't mean that it won't happen. Battery cost has been reduced and will continue to be reduced, now with lots of R&D working on that, as well as upcoming economy of scale.
     
  11. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2012/2012-02-09-091.html
     
  12. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    $120 million! Over 5 years! That's huge! We'll get super amazing batteries for sure!

    :p
     
  13. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    The military engagements in middle east and AFPAK burn $120 in, what? 5 hours?
     
  14. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    If the terms of the award are similar to those of the ARPA-E funding, the IP rights stay with the inventors (except for a limited-use license to the federal government for government use). So this $120mm is better thought of as seed money, with the expectation that it will be more than matched by hosting institutions eager to develop "the next big thing" in batteries and make a fortune thereby.
     
  15. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Talk is Steven could be out in the next administration.

    Same with EPA head.

    Climate energy controllers both.
     

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