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Stock Price if 35k MS deliveries not met for '14 (because of dual motor)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by mdevp, Oct 10, 2014.

  1. mdevp

    mdevp Member

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    I'm seeing people delaying their orders for Feb delivery for DM. Do you guys think Tesla will hit the 35k MS mark for '14? InsideEVs.com estimates that leaves 14k deliveries for q4, thats a heck of a lot, even though its an approximation.
     
  2. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    That's only for regular Dual Motors. What's essentially happening is as follows (and I think it was Tesla's goal also).

    1. Bump lower ASP cars to next year and bring in the higher margin cars this year to make 2014 look more stellar. People will be buying fully loaded P85D's. Almost no question.
    2. Take some Model X reservations away from the back log and move them to P85D's.

    I think we'll hit our delivery numbers. If we don't it wouldn't even matter as much because guidance will matter.
     
  3. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    A lot of people in temperate climates will not pay $4k premium for AWD.

    Many/most in snowy climates and those that want ultimate traction acceleration in temperate climates will pay premium.

    The RWD Tesla demand plus P85D should me more than enough for 13k units delivered in 4Q.
     
  4. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    #4 Yggdrasill, Oct 10, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2014
    There will undoubtedely be a rush of new orders for the P85D here in Norway. AWD is something that's quite popular here, around 30% of new cars have AWD. And this is heavily weighted towards the higher end of the price scale.

    The only thing the P85D still seems to lack is tow hitch. Some people will be put off by that, including me.
     
  5. mdevp

    mdevp Member

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    Oh that would be huge, I haven't read a thread yet giving a feel of how many people in Norway didn't buy a Tesla just b/c of no AWD. I'm glad you just did. :smile:
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Just read that in the USA YTD 2014 buyers in the premium class chose AWD 46% of the time.

    That is why Elon said this will increase the addressable market 50%.

    I did not know it was that high.
     
  7. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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    Tesla knew a big chunk of people would delay their orders when they decided on the timing of their announcement. They would not have announced it this early if they weren't confident that the backlog is big enough to get through October and November while only delivering single-motor cars. I think this moves shows strength, and if they miss the 35k guidance it won't be for lack of demand.
     
  8. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    The Design Studio just came up here. It doesn't seem as if the P85D will start to be delivered here until February (and then the 60D/85D in April). So it seems like the US will be prioritized in the first stage.

    But still, I doubt Tesla will have any problem with demand...
     
  9. DriverOne

    DriverOne Member

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    I too am concerned that they have Osborned themselves until February. The current quarter and next could be rough. Hopefully there are enough non-D orders to carry through until Feb.
     
  10. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    Before the announcement they had already filled until late December with orders according to the website delivery times, and the P85D is available in December as well, I don't think they'll have any trouble at all selling as many vehicles as they can pump out.
     
  11. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    One possibility that I hope is the case - should we see a massive number of postponements (something I could readily see at "only" $4k to add on AWD), then we'll also see Tesla start building and shipping the PD's that much sooner as the "backlog" of orders with 2WD pushes out. If this view of the world proves true, then in effect, Tesla is giving current orders priority in the build queue, but setting up a situation in which large numbers of people go back and willingly toss more money into the kitty. H'mm...

    And by emphasizing the performance D in the US in late Q4, possibly pulling forward if so many people postpone by reconfiguring, we might see an earnings beat, even if it comes with a unit shortfall.
     
  12. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    There is zero chance of a unit shortfall. There's a huge backlog of orders, worst case they pull a few ahead, at no point is there any risk of the factory putting out fewer units due to less demand.
    "worst" case they end up building more AWD vehicles than planned, and probably make even more money.
     
  13. mdevp

    mdevp Member

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    Yes, this is exactly what I was thinking about with the start of this thread. But some people are saying that when Tesla reveals that they won't make the 35k for '14 they will give great guidance for DM and Model X preorders and that will offset the Q4 miss. I fear, however, the stock price is on such a tight leash that it might get really rough after the Q4 call.
     
  14. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    i agree with those who say there is no way the D has a negative impact on the YE target on deliveries. There is way too big of a backlog for that. What is a reasonable thing to worry about, though, is missing Q3 even by a few hundred because of a longer than expected stand-down/ramp-up of the factory, or another delay on X. Even if these are insignificant bumps on the road in the great scheme of things, the market will overreact.
     
  15. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Buying opportunity!
     

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