You're right: this is a car with the BMW 3 series in its sights. It isn't a Camry. You can argue that it doesn't offer some of the bells and whistles a top-end mass market car would do; it is certainly competitive against higher end marques.
I have a 2013 MS right now and indirectly upgraded (country move) from a Volt, which was my first experience of an electric car - and which was a "downgrade" from a German car: for me, the tech was (and is) the thing, and I want to be part of what I perceive to be the future and the solution. (Like you I'm also a bike commuter.)
If the numbers don't add up for you that's really too bad and I hope you do come back to it in the second-hand market: with very little in the way of mechanical wear and continuous software upgrades, second-hand Teslas are very good value.
I will say though that I think your comparison points slightly miss the mark. Yes, I have a dog so fabric seats are difficult for me and I understand the appeal of leather (and as a non-meat eater, I am over the moon about the cruelty-free seating).
However, with no additional features, as a 35K driver, you get:
- Exactly the same UI / UX on the panel, which is so much better than anything else on the market it's hard to describe it. You had me at Google maps, and compare that to literally anything else. And so on. I really believe that not to regard this as the height of at least one type of luxury is maybe to miss the point.
- Exactly the same steering wheel, driving position, center vent, USB charging in the front, cupholders etc.
- 0-60 in under 6 seconds. What that doesn't tell you is that you get this almost silently and it will blow you away every single time
- No vibration. This is a hard one to communicate because every other car most people have ever had vibrates with the engine. An electric car doesn't. The smoothness, even above the quiet, is the thing I wouldn't give up. To use that phrase, it's like butter. I can't tell you what a big deal this is: it is so transformative.
- At-home or at-work charging. It's much cheaper, probably much greener (YMMV) - and who would ever miss the trip to the gas station? Yes it's a few minutes, but that's a few minutes I would rather be doing literally anything else except possibly being on the receiving end of dentistry.
- A beautifully designed car: personally I think much better than the MS or MX. You had me at the windshield. I am "downgrading" because I think it's a nicer-looking car and I don't need the size.
- HOV lane use, probably. (You're in Seattle and I don't know how relevant this is to you; in LA I can't imagine why anyone who can afford it buys a car that doesn't have the HOV decals.) The best parking at the mall or supermarket or hotel, probably, often free.
- Much lower maintenance costs and hassle, probably.
What do you not get?
- A cover for center storage. My Signature Model S does not have this cover: newer Model S' do. YMMV etc. but I haven't missed this other than when water bottles that wouldn't fit in the cupholders slid around. (I bought smaller ones.) The Model 3 also has door pockets, like most other cars, so they've learned from the too-minimal storage options they once had.
- Premium sound. In the Model S, that was an issue as you lost radio options too. You don't seem to in the Model 3. You mentioned you have small children so I'm guessing Metallica at volume 11 is unlikely to be on your list of needs…
- USB in the rear - which again, the Model S does not have.
- You would also need to move your seats and side mirrors yourselves, like animals.
- Wood trim and heated leather seats.
Obviously the big one is AutoPilot. But neither does anything else you would be looking at, bar none. If it's like the Model S you will be able to buy this later, though for more. To me, that gives you optionality. In the worst case, compared to what you might have bought, it's a nicer, faster, greener vehicle that does what a Chevy Bolt would have done, without inducing nausea when you look at it, and with the back-up of a rock-solid Supercharger network - with navigation to these built-in, including how long to wait. The few things you don't get are vastly outweighed by the things you do.
A few years down the line, you may wish to get that upgrade. If it seems like it's slightly better cruise control, maybe you have better uses for $8K or $10K or whatever it is. If it seems like this is changing the world, you have that option in your own car, still under warranty, without paying the new car drive-it-off-the-lot depreciation tax all over again. In any other car, even to get something like Apple CarPlay, they make you buy a whole new car. Best case, they make you pay something like $1,000 for a DVD with some newer maps. With a Tesla, the over-the-air software gives you new maps and better UI all the time - free. The hardware for AutoPilot will be there- you'll just need to pay for it as and if. I actually wouldn't be shocked if the battery is also the same in all models - Tesla has done this before. Perhaps a battery expert will correct me but I find it slightly suspicious that Tesla has chosen not to reveal the kWh of the battery packs. That may or may not be the case, but software upgradeability itself is huge.
It's a tough call and especially at the outer edge of affordability maybe it makes sense this go-round to go with what you know. But I am pretty sure that you are very unlikely to regret getting the simple model, and that the things you once thought were deal-breakers fade once you start driving it. The Tesla experience really is better: I hope I am not coming across as too Messianic to be credible.
