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Stray Model X Production rationale posts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by johnnyduval, Nov 25, 2015.

  1. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    They need to go from making 33,000 cars last year to being an actual manufacturer making 500,000 a year by 2020. Meanwhile we know that Volvo, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Aston, and especially Mercedes are all working hard on pure electric cars. God help us if Apple are really gonna enter the market.

    I have no axe to grind. I have some Tesla shares and a Tesla X on order. I just thing it's about 50-50 whether things will work out as planned. Based on track record I assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 and not $35,000 and won't be on the market before 2020.

    I just now see too many things that *could* upset the masterplan. Punters will not "stay loyal" to Tesla as a brand if something sexier appears at a 20% discount from Audi/Mercedes etc.
     
  2. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    #2 johnnyduval, Nov 25, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2015
    The Church of Tesla.

    OK the $4,000 loss per car I agree is misleading. That's just the cash burn against cars sold. They are however still spending MORE than they EARN and even Elon is not predicting profitability under "normal accounting rules" before 2020. I appreciate you must invest to make money.......but my point is that much of the upcoming competition already have profitable car businesses with history, reputations and engineers that know how to make cars.

    No way would I buy a Panamera over a Tesla S these days. The Panamera is an ugly dog compared - I know - it's what I drive whilst I wait for the Tesla X vapourware.

    I just think Tesla should start getting worried about the competition and stop designing stuff like gullwing doors until they have cracked the market. It's clear for example that 90% of people would prefer 2nd row seats that go flat compared to daft rear doors (that are useless because the front doors are standard).
     
  3. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    What makes you think that they're just "dicking about?" Most of their engineers are now concentrating on the Model 3.
    Most Tesla Engineers Now Working On Model 3: Executive

    I know I know, I shouldn't be feeding...
     
  4. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    From your link:

    Oh great. That should speed things up nicely.

    What he said.
     
  5. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    How do you know the gullwing doors are pointless until we have some actual owner feedback and you have an opportunity to take the X for a test drive?
    For all we know they may turn out to be exceedingly practical and Tesla is proven correct with this feature. I just think we need to wait before jumping to conclusions even though you may end up being correct. However that is a discussion for another time when we actually have real information from lots of owners.
     
  6. Marcos

    Marcos Member

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    .

    You agree it's misleading, yet you keep doubling down. Fact is, tesla has already cracked the market to the extent it needs to crack it. It's has continued to ramp up sales despite having no traditional marketing efforts. It has far more model x orders than it can hope to fulfill anytime soon.

    Tesla's problem isn't demand, it's supply, and building that supply capability requires massive capital expenditures. Anyone who follows the company even half-assed understands this. If all tesla wanted was to be a luxury car manufacturer, then mission accomplished, it could pretty much be profitable today. But it has larger ambitions.

    Let the the competition come! Not sure why that would be bad for Tesla. Infinity didn't put MB out of business, and Acura didn't put BMW out of business. In a car market as large as this world's, there is plenty of space for multiple players. The idea of a "Tesla killer" is patently absurd.

    And yet it is Tesla that is turning the automotive industry on its head. Why? Because all the engineers in the world don't get you far if you are stuck in a rut. I mean, the idea of over-the-air updates is a no-brainier in the tech world. Yet here we have Germany and Detroit completely blindsided by the concept. In fact, all the big automakers are rushing to open up Silicon Valley outposts because that's where (generally speaking) the most innovative companies in the world and their armies of engineers reside.

    "Vapor" is a hyped product that doesn't exist. Are you claiming that the Model X doesn't exist?

    Do you have a source for that 90% stat, or are you just making stuff up? Seriously, Tesla has lots of challenges ahead of it, competition isn't one of them. And if competition really was one of those challenges, then the gulf-wing doors are precisely the kind of differentiator that would set it apart from that competition.

    It it is precisely Musk's level of audacious risk-taking at has allowed Tesla to get to where it is today, and has left rival carmakers scrambling for a response.
     
  7. vandacca

    vandacca Active Member

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    You know, I used to think that Tesla really needs to start getting their act together because the competition would pounce on them quickly. However, after a few years of waiting for the "competition", I'm starting to believe that the traditional automotive companies are too entrenched in the ICE business-model to be able to do anything. Talk about vapour ware. Only BMW has the i3 and i8. Everyone else is talking about coming out with a Tesla competitor in a few years. But no mention of super-charging, battery storage, solar collection, lower cost batteries, etc. Tesla is the only one that appears to be firing on all cylinders (forgive the pun).

    I'm more interested to see what happens with the Chinese competitors and Apple. They don't have any legacy sales to worry about, so they can be bold and move more quickly. But Tesla has a pretty significant lead with the SuperChargers, GigaFactory, design/development, manufacturing, Solar City, Powerwall, software, etc. It would appear that all that spending has given them a pretty solid lead.

    Even if one of these companies manages to get their act together and provide Tesla with a real challenge (BTW, this is my wish because I feel that it would force Tesla to stop screwing around and be more serious with their products and production schedules), Tesla is actually in the energy business too so they don't have to be 100% successful with their EVs. In fact, in order for these other companies to be competitive with Tesla, they would probably have to buy Tesla batteries and services, like Toyota, Daimler, etc.

    You have to admit, a lot of people are trying to emulate the Tesla business model and design. There is a reason for that.
     
  8. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    Get real. Toyota sold 9 Million cars last year. The waiting list for a "Morgan" car is around 7 years. That must mean the Morgans are like looooooaaads better than Toyotas?
    Or could it be that Tesla only actually made 33,000 cars last year.........and errrrrr.......let me see.......6 Model X's this year I think at last count (or was it as many as 7).

    No of course not. There are at least 6.

    Of course I don't have "a stat" for that but after the September reveal everyone got their panties in a huge knot because the seats didn't go flat and nobody gave a rats arse about the weird doors.
     
  9. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    Thank you fellah. I am not just trying to only diss Tesla. I have my name down for an X and I think it will be perfect as my next car......just be nice if they could start making some cars rather than doing these childish slow reveals. I mean they open the design studio for 20 people and the great unwashed all have to huddle round their monitors to see some fuzzy screenshots from strangers so we can find out the prices and specs. Like - is that for real??? Just stick the godamn configurator up live, release some prices, and have a proper reliable schedule for deliveries.

    Hiding factory options with easter eggs? Pleaaaaaaaaseeee.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's the global market cracked then. Even that is comedy gold 'cos some nerd had to track down a VIN number to work out how many cars they made this month. It's all secret you know.

    I have a mate down the pub whose sister's aunt knows the brother of a guy lives next to the Tesla factory and he says they made 37 Founders cars this month. So there.
     
  10. Ugliest1

    Ugliest1 S85: "Sparky"

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    First "90%", now "everyone". Maybe 90% of the TMC posters in the Seatgate thread were complaining; don't know, didn't count, got tired of reading about 4x8 sheets of plywood etc, but I'm sure the passionate complaining was only coming from a small percentage.
     
  11. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    @Ugliest1 - I can tell you are a man that likes his stats properly 100% in order and not a hair outta line. My mum told me a billion times not to exaggerate.

    p.s. I liked the poster earlier asking why anyone would buy an X and NOT have the 7 seats. Why would they possibly only want the 5 seats?
     
  12. Ugliest1

    Ugliest1 S85: "Sparky"

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    I exaggerate merely for the purpose of accuracy. And, I usually try not to let facts get in the way of my opinions.
     
  13. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    I fed him and ended up with a fallacy trifecta. Straw man, ad hominem, and appeal to emotion all in one post.
     
  14. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Member

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    Not sure this criticism is deserved.

    I understand that some would want 20,000 Model X's produced and in warehouses on the day of announcement, so everybody with a deposit could get theirs at the same time, however Tesla is in production constraints. They are pushing them out as fast as they can, however ramp up of this most difficult to manufacturer SUV is going to start up in dribs and drabs.

    This is the same as with the Roadster and Model S. It takes longer for Tesla to put out these initial SUV's than it takes to type up a critical post.

    Tesla is under the gun to make their production quotas, and I am sure they are all hands on deck ramping up production.

    Best to hang back a bit this holiday season, and begin to give thanks for what Tesla has been able to achieve in the face of so many people that would want to see them fail.

    Believe the Model X will be a huge hit in the marketplace. Just like every other vehicle produced by all the other manufacturers, it will not be the perfect vehicle for everybody, but for many it will fit the bill well enough.

    Go Tesla!
     
  15. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    Homer: Look Marge, I put these gullwing car doors (like on a sports car) onto our family car!

    Marge: Gee Homer they look neat......what are they for?

    Homer: It's so when you park in a really narrow space people can still get out the back of the car.

    Marge: That's great Homer, but what about the driver, how does he get out?

    Homer: Doh!
     
  16. engle

    engle Member

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    #16 engle, Nov 25, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2015
    Hey Johnny,

    You sound like either a short or an ICE car dealer?

    Please take this to the Tesla investment side of TMC:

    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/forumdisplay.php/119-TSLA-Investor-Discussions

    This thread is for Tesla Production X configuration news and discussions thereof.

    Thanks and have a great day!

     
  17. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    #17 johnnyduval, Nov 25, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2015
    Nope. I am long of Tesla stocks, and have an X on order.
     
  18. MrBoylan

    MrBoylan Member

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    82.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Including that one. And yours, too. The falcon wing doors are what sealed the deal for me on the X. Coolest. Doors. Ever. They weren't specifically made to open in tight spaces (though they do that well). They were made so as to allow easier access to both the middle and rear row of seating. And from that respect they are clearly superior to a standard door or even a sliding minivan door. There are a lot of things they could change about the X after the original prototype reveal. Falcon Wing Doors wasn't one of them. Falcon Wing Door-Gate would have been much worse than folding-seat-gate.

    Historically speaking, it doesn't seem like Tesla has to "worry about the competition" because they don't have any. For now, the Model S and Model X offer something you can't get on any other car: an electric car with over 200 miles of range that handles like a sports car, performs like a super car and fits a family of 7. Tesla doesn't invent things like Falcon Wing Doors just to be different. They invent them because they serve a specific need and are seriously cool. "Cool factor" plays a huge part in the Tesla design strategy and I hope they continue to do that as they finalize the Model 3. Don't clone what the competition is doing with a few incremental improvements, or just replace an ICE power train with an electric one. Look at what's out there, figure out how it can be better and go invent it.
     
  19. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    I can carefully open the driver's door and squeeze out without hitting the car next to me if necessary. My kids..., not so much!

    - - - Updated - - -

    For those that have been able to configure - Have you noticed when you click on 20 inch vs 22 inch wheels and P90D version, are the 20 inch all-season tires or summer tires?

    Thanks!
     
  20. engle

    engle Member

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    That's great! Thanks for supporting TSLA. You live in Munich. What do you think about Audi's, BMW's and Daimler's efforts so far to compete?

    Mods: Please feel free to move this to the investor side. :)
     

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