Stray Model X Production rationale posts

[traxila]

@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.

Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.

Wish they would get to it. The EV market has plenty of room for everyone that dares to go there with real product. Still the fact remains, Tesla has a huge head start and will catastrophically fail only if they make very bad mistakes, imho. If I had to bet, I would put a lot more money on Tesla emerging as a dominant manufacturer rather than failing at this point. Wait a minute, I already have!

- - - Updated - - -

Tesla is not a perfect company, nor does it try to be. Elon doesn't appear to be afraid of making mistakes, and when he does, he quickly tries to fix it. Tesla has shown the ability to quickly pivot and address issues/mistakes as necessary. For example, the onboard AC charger and the folding seats. It's precisely the fear of failing that has paralyzed the traditional automotive manufacturer into doing nothing for so long.

However, when it comes to the falcon doors, I'm reserving judgement until I have been using them for a few months. They do look cool, but I'm an understated type of guy and I don't like to drive around in a flashy car. My wife would be embarrassed to open those doors at the grocery store. I've been indifferent about the doors until now, but I do admit that they may have a potential to be huge. I like to compare them to the iPad. When Steve Jobs announced the iPad, no one got it and it was ridiculed by all the tech journalist. But once consumers started using it, everyone understood the impact and it was a huge success. So much so, that consumers don't feel the need to upgrade them every year and it has caused a drop in sales due to quickly reaching a saturation point.

The falcon doors may provide the functionality of a mini-van sliding door without the ugly, boxy look. No one today can predict if the falcon doors will be a hit or miss. We will have to wait until it's in consumer's hands before we know if it was a good or bad idea. I'm leaning towards it being a hit, but I'll be the first to point out when Tesla missteps. Not because I want them to fail, but because I want them to succeed.

It is hard to understand how much of a bubble we live in. I know I have a very hard time with it. I believe the vast majority of the US still does not know Tesla exists. The falcon wing doors are brilliant for this reason. EVERYONE that sees them in the wild will remember this car and want to know what is going on... And then comes Model III.

 

[vandacca]

@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.

Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.



I was also afraid to comment on this myself for fear of being gunned down in a hail of forum bullets. But I was also wondering if I could train the kids to enter the car from the boot so that I wouldn't have those doors going up and down in public. Too much like wearing gold chains for my personal tastes......but will be fine in a couple of years once everyone has tired of seeing them.

The copy-cats have already started, but not from the legacy car makers. There are 2-3 new Chinese manufactures (plus Apple) that are coming out with Tesla 'clones'. The problem with the clones however, is that they are not likely to have gone into the detail that Tesla has. It's not just an EV that Tesla is building, it's a whole-solution. Everything from Solar panels, battery storage, super-chargers, service stations, show rooms, giga factory, etc. It's not something that can be easily duplicated.

And I haven't even mentioned anything yet about the research and development they've done in battery management, motors, auto pilot, software, etc.

And I agree that in a few years when the novelty wears off, I'll be fine with opening those falcon doors in public.

 

[Ugliest1]

The problem with the clones however, is that they are not likely to have gone into the detail that Tesla has. It's not just an EV that Tesla is building, it's a whole-solution. Everything from Solar panels, battery storage, super-chargers, service stations, show rooms, giga factory, high safety focus, etc. It's not something that can be easily duplicated.

There I fixed that up for you . Re the Chinese clones, "are they safe" would be my biggest question about them.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

The moment that Audi or BMW produces a 200+ mile all electric sedan or SUV it won't be taking sales away from Tesla, it will be taking sales away from Audi and BMW's internal combustion sedans and SUVs. That's why they are dragging their heels on getting one to market.

Also, ever notice how every time a traditional car company announces some future coming electric car the headlines all call it a "Tesla killer." Interesting, because it implies that their existing cars aren't.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

You know nothing John Snow. (sorry could not resist that one)

Hmmmmmm. So if you wouldn't have bought the X without falcon doors, and we know there is no other car on the market with those doors........errrr........would you have just caught the bus in future and not have a car anymore? As there is no other option?

p.s. No reason for a sliding door. Stuff like the X5, Cayenne, Tourag all just have normal doors.

We would have bought a van, and hated it.

As to the X5, Cayenne, and Tourag....they don't meet the requirement of easy access to the 3rd row with car seats installed...or access at all to a 3rd row.

 

[CarlK]

The copy-cats have already started, but not from the legacy car makers.

The legacy car makers will (have to) be copycats too. For instance I actually think companies from Porsche to Range Rover are having engineering teams to study the falcon wing door now. If they are smart enough they should have realized that no company will be able to sell a $100K SUV without one in the future when people got a taste of it. It's really a fantastic design that is sexy and practical at the same time. There will be no more excuses like it does not work in tight places or it's hard to make or it's too costly to do since Tesla has alrady done it. They need to get it on theirs before the Koreans incorporate the design in their SUV's costing much less which I'm sure will happen too.

These companies will forever be copycats from this point on. While they are studying Tesla's battery/motor technology and falcon wing door and perhaps able to come up with something similar in 2~3 years Tesla is already working on some even greater ideas for future products that we don't even know yet. I can list probably a dozen significant new things Tesla has done from Superchagers to the gigafactory to the insane/ludicrous acceleration to the auto pilot to the rad X design (FWD, pano-windshield, single pole seats) no one knew about just three years ago. Tell me which CEO of any of these legacy companies is even remotely close to Elon as a visionary? People who think Tesla will just be standing still and let others to catch up do not know what they are talking about. Those legacy/copycat companies have no cat in hell's chance of surpassing Tesla.

The moment that Audi or BMW produces a 200+ mile all electric sedan or SUV it won't be taking sales away from Tesla, it will be taking sales away from Audi and BMW's internal combustion sedans and SUVs. That's why they are dragging their heels on getting one to market.

100000% agree. That's why BMW is making the i3 so ugly that no one who are looking for a 3 series would be interested, or the i8 so expensive that no one could "only" afford a regular BMW could afford one. This is typical that it takes a new company to implement the disruptive technology. It's very hard for legacy companies to part with their lucrative markets, not the least is CEO's job is on the line for the financial performance, but the truth is always if you don't want to cannibalize your product someone else will do it for you. There are very few cases in the business history that a legacy company is willing to disrupt their own business. How the rest ended up from Kodak to Blockbuster are all very well known for people who study business.

 

[PeterK]

@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.

Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.



I was afraid to comment on this myself for fear of being gunned down in a hail of forum bullets. But I was also wondering if I could train the kids to enter the car from the boot so that I wouldn't have those doors going up and down in public. Too much like wearing gold chains for my personal tastes......but will be fine in a couple of years once everyone has tired of seeing them.

@johnnyduval, If they enter through the "boot" you still have a tailgate door going up and down, plus kids looking foolish climbing over seats. Just as auto tailgates and powered minivan doors drew attention initially then became everyday, falcon wings will do the same.

Followers can copy innovators but innovators learn more and faster, especially Tesla who get direct customer interaction without the dealer firewall, and get tons of data and now autopilot learning feedback direct from the cars. And while Tesla is a startup they've been focused on this area for 12 years, with product on the market for 7. That's a big head start over companies whose deepest engineering expertise is in internal combustion engines and transmissions.

Everyone talks about traditional competition but if Frankfurt is an example I wouldn't hold my breath. You and other TMC members are busy complaining about Falcon wing door-driven delays, non-folding seats and 48A chargers while Audi's Model X contender, the Q6 e-tron will be slower and seat only 4, and won't be available until 2018. As an Audi fan and former owner of three of their cars, I am disappointed - I want to see more Tesla competition and a faster transition to EVs. I hope that the recently unveiled VW "clean diesel" fraud will drive them to take real actions in EVs.

Finally Tesla has been selling far more Model S than originally projected so the Model X delays haven't hurt as much financially as many think. And 2016 will be a good year with X, Gigafactory production and Powerwall sales kicking in.

Tesla is far from flawless but considering all the odds and establishment forces stacked against them they are doing phenomenally. They take risks and learn quickly from mistakes. As a shareholder, S and future X owner, and father concerned about the future of our planet, I am pulling for them and thankful for the efforts of all at Tesla.

Here are two links a lot more fact-based and interesting than the two you posted. Enjoy, and happy thanksgiving to those who celebrate it.

Yipes! Watch out Tesla! Move over Tesla! | TeslaMondo

How Tesla Will Change The World - Wait But Why

 

[johnnyduval]

@johnnyduval, If they enter through the "boot" you still have a tailgate door going up and down, plus kids looking foolish climbing over seats.

My attempts at light humour really are falling on stoney ground.

considering all the odds and establishment forces stacked against them

Yup. That is my point. The odds are against them. Those are YOUR words not mine.

That is why I see their longterm future around 50-50 for survival. The current cars are a rich mans plaything......they are totally unaffordable for 99% of the population.

The real question is whether they can produce a mass market car, on time, and at an affordable price BEFORE somebody else.

Imagine a scenario whereby the Tesla 3 series hits the streets in 2020 at $45,000 but at the same time Faraday Future, or Toyota, or Honda, or Audi or whoever produce something *similar* but at $32,000. Strong brand names can of course defy gravity on pricing (Giffin goods if you will) but that is NOT a strategy on which to base your company.

I think the average man in the street will take the $32,000 option.

Re the Chinese clones, "are they safe" would be my biggest question about them.

Donald Trump eat your heart out.

 

[SebastianR]

@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.

Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.

I really wished, somebody would copy them: that would validate the business model. And eventually, every additional electric car on the road is one less fuel driven car which is great. And it would pressure the laggards of the car makers into moving their heavy behinds.

I'm currently driving an Audi. It's an ok car, the wife likes it. But you have no idea how frustrated, angry, upset, disillusioned, and disappointed I am with these idiots from Ingolstadt: I asked my dealer many times for a full electric Audi A6 Kombi and all I hear is "buy our A3 eTron" - what a joke! So all they can do is to announce one hundred million electric cars that they will deliver at some point but nothing that can compete with a Tesla of 2012 - And if I mention Tesla, my dealer gets all soft and whiny and begs me to not buy a Tesla - what a wimp!

It is clear to me that my next car will be electric. If that's still going to be a German car or not, depends on the Germans and if they have a compelling offer. Right now, it does not look good for them at all (and this after having only owned German cars in the 20 years I have driven).

PS: If I say "all they can do", I was not fair: they can also defraud, cheat, and lie on their "Vorsprung durch Technik" emissions engineering - since they have not enough "German engineering" in their company to actually pass the soft, weak and watered down legislation that they themselves lobbied for - Saubande!

 

[johnnyduval]

VW have been very naughty......but everyone else has been at the game, just they have been a little more subtle in their technique.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yup. That is my point. The odds are against them. Those are YOUR words not mine.

That is why I see their longterm future around 50-50 for survival. The current cars are a rich mans plaything......they are totally unaffordable for 99% of the population.

Here in Norway Teslas are mostly bought by the middle class. But I agree they are too expensive for the middle class most places.

I would have said their chances were 50-50 back in 2014. Now I'd say that the chance that Tesla will survive in some form is closer to 90%. Tesla has been increasing their head start in recent years. Still, really the only automotive battery company besides Tesla/Panasonic is LG Chem (plus BYD, but they'll likely use all the batteries they produce in their own products). Unless LG Chem scales up massively ASAP, LG Chem has enough batteries for *maybe* two other BEV manufacturers with equivalent volume to Tesla. What will the 10-ish other large car companies do? Start a bidding war for the cells from LG Chem? Take 5 years to build their own battery plants?

The companies that have failed to secure their battery supply will find themselves between a rock and a hard place in 5-10 years. Tesla is one of the companies that won't find themself in that situation.

The real question is whether they can produce a mass market car, on time, and at an affordable price BEFORE somebody else.

Imagine a scenario whereby the Tesla 3 series hits the streets in 2020 at $45,000 but at the same time Faraday Future, or Toyota, or Honda, or Audi or whoever produce something *similar* but at $32,000. Strong brand names can of course defy gravity on pricing (Giffin goods if you will) but that is NOT a strategy on which to base your company.

I think the average man in the street will take the $32,000 option.

I agree.

The big question is if Tesla can deliver on time and price for the Model 3 (35k USD, 2017). And I think they can. The Model 3 is *the* priority at Tesla. Without the Model 3, the company won't be able to grow, and their head start will wither.

It's true the Roadster, Model S and Model X have been delayed, but we're talking about widely different reasons, none of which are applicable now. The Roadster was the first car they ever made, and it was obviously a learning experience. With the Model S, they needed a production facility, which took time and money, plus they had challenges with funding at times. The Model X was a low priority, because it wasn't needed.

For the Model 3, they have the experience, they (mostly) have the production apparatus, they have the funding, and they have the will. Not to mention a global sales network, a global charging network and a devoted fanbase. Everything is lined up for success.

 

[SebastianR]

VW have been very naughty......but everyone else has been at the game, just they have been a little more subtle in their technique.

Let's call a spade a spade: VW has committed fraud. It is not about being "naughty", they committed fraud plain and simple. If you can pass emission testing with all the little (disgusting but legal) tricks, so be it. But they couldn't even do that. I hate how so many Germans are making excuses for VW and how they belittle the issue - we used to be a country that would stand by its words, was honest and took pride in actual achievements.

I also hate Audi for leaving me in the dark as to if my car is affected or not - every day there is a new revelation and to date Audi refuses to confirm to me that my car is free of fraud. Again, Saubande, elendige!

 

[ecarfan]

Yipes! Watch out Tesla! Move over Tesla! | TeslaMondo

Thank you for posting that link, what a hilarious compilation of "Look Out Tesla / Move Over Tesla / Watch Out Tesla" announcements of mythical EVs from other companies! I have become heartily sick of that type of headline in the past few years. Over 90% of the announced EVs don't exist yet, the exceptions being the Leaf, i3, and a couple of others like the Cadillac that flopped.

 

[johnnyduval]

The Nissan Leaf.......that will be the #1 best selling electric car in the world you are talking about?

Here in Norway Teslas are mostly bought by the middle class. But I agree they are too expensive for the middle class most places.

The #1 selling car in Norway.......due to heavy subsidies from the Norwegian government using their oil wealth. Bit ironic really.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The Nissan Leaf.......that will be the #1 best selling electric car in the world you are talking about?

The Leaf is the best-seller in number, not in USD-value or kWh battery capacity. There's more than one metric.

- - - Updated - - -

The #1 selling car in Norway.......due to heavy subsidies from the Norwegian government using their oil wealth. Bit ironic really.

It has been the best selling car some months. Now it's the e-Golf. The market is really starved for a long range Golf-segment BEV i.e. the Model 3.

 

[johnnyduval]

I am really getting confused as I thought that Tesla was the only company capable of making a functional 100% electric car and yet the #1 seller currently is a Nissan. It's so hard to keep up.

So the rules are that we only count electric cars based on how many US$$$ they cost? I missed that in the forum smallprint. I can totally see how for the green upkeep of the planet it is important we measure in $$ sales values. Let's hope for the sake of the planet that Porsche sell loads of those Mission E things for $200,000 each.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I am really getting confused as I thought that Tesla was the only company capable of making a functional 100% electric car and yet the #1 seller currently is a Nissan. It's so hard to keep up.

So the rules are that we only count electric cars based on how many US$$$ they cost? I missed that in the forum smallprint. I can totally see how for the green upkeep of the planet it is important we measure in $$ sales values.

Nissan is one of the few companies that sees where the future is, and I applaud them for it. But Tesla is the biggest BEV company, in terms of revenue.

 

[johnnyduval]

By the way.........these free Tesla superchargers for the life of the car. Who pays for all that in future?

Still, really the only automotive battery company besides Tesla/Panasonic is LG Chem (plus BYD, but they'll likely use all the batteries they produce in their own products).

So this website is wrong:
10 Biggest Electric Car Battery Manufacturers Are... | CleanTechnica

They say Mitsubishi and AESC are bigger than LG Chem.

Edit: Amusingly the data above comes from the dude at post #26 who wants me banned for being a meanie about Tesla.

 

[Yggdrasill]

By the way.........these free Tesla superchargers for the life of the car. Who pays for all that in future?

Tesla Motors. We're talking about fairly small costs which are easily covered by the sales revenue.

If the automotive sales-part of the operation were to fail, all that would mean is that they would need to increase profit in the service centers to pay for the superchargers.

 

[johnnyduval]

Tesla Motors. We're talking about fairly small costs which are easily covered by the sales revenue.

That will be the small costs they are unwilling to disclose in their financial figures?

Questions Musk Needs to Answer about the Tesla Superchargers | Market Mad House